Iran Threatens US To Stay Out Of Future Conflict With Israel

Although the massive strike launched mostly from inside Iranian territory caused little damage, the risk of an Israeli response escalating into a full-blown war looms large.

The attack was anticipated given Iran's vow to retaliate against Israel's targeting of Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1. Intelligence assessments had predicted an imminent and significant strike.

The initial wave of the attack struck Israel around 2 am local time, resulting in explosions in the sky as Israeli defense systems intercepted drones and missiles. Some missiles managed to evade interception, hitting an airbase in southern Israel and causing minor damage, according to Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari.

Of 170 UAVs 0 entered into Israeli territory / Of 30 Iranian cruise missiles, 0 entered Israeli air space, 25 downed by Israel. Most of 120 ballistic missiles were intercepted by the arrow defense system, causing minor damage to infrastructure at Nevatim Air Force base by direct hit but still operational.

Iran’s state-affiliated media celebrated the operation as a huge success, and the foreign ministry called it “an inherent right of self-defense as recognized under Article 51 of the UN Charter, against Israel's recurring military aggressions.”

However, the attack drew condemnation from UN Secretary-General and several governments, including those of Canada, Germany, France, UK, and the US. President Biden lauded Israel's defense capability, reaffirming the US commitment to its security.

“Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks – sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel,” US President Joe Biden said shortly after the operation was over. He stated once more that his government’s commitment to Israel was “ironclad”.

It’s unclear how Israel would respond to the attack. Unnamed Israeli sources told Iran International that it certainly will. The Israeli War Cabinet did convene during the attacks and authorized Benjamin Netanyahu and two of his ministers to decide on the response –which, according to Israel’s Channel 14, would target “Iranian territory.”

What is also not clear is the timing of the Israeli response. Netanyahu would most likely discuss his options with Biden, who fears the tit-for-tat to lead to an all-out regional war and bog down the US military in yet another conflict in the Middle East less than six months before the 2024 US elections.

The Biden administration seems to want to downplay the significance of Iran’s attack in a bid to restrain Netanyahu.

CNN quoted a senior administration official who said President Biden has told Netanyahu that “Israel should consider tonight a win” because Iran’s attacks had been “largely unsuccessful” and nothing of “value” was hit. CNN also reported that Biden had made it clear to Netanyahu that the United States “will not participate in any offensive operation against Iran.”

Biden’s stance is bound to anger his more hawkish critics, who accuse him of abandoning Israel and even appeasing Iran. He will feel the heat in Washington, and in the Capitol, in particular, in the days to come, as ardent supporters of Israel push for a tougher stance on Iran.

“This is the moment for the US to show we stand together with our allies,” Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS), Ranking Member of the Armed Service Committee posted on X. “Our shared enemies, including Iran & their proxies, need to know our commitment is unwavering. We must join with Israel to ensure that Iran’s aggression is met with resolute action & resounding strength.”

Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) was another lawmaker who called for US involvement in a military operation against Iran.

“Iran has begun launching drone strikes on Israel,” she posted on X shortly after news broke of Iranian drones heading for Israel. “We must move quickly and launch aggressive retaliatory strikes on Iran.”

Former President Donald Trump was also quick to weigh in on the subject, albeit from a more personal angle.

“Israel is under attack! This should never have been allowed to happen,” he posted on his digital platform Truth Social. “This would never have happened if I was President,” he said, in a comparatively subtle sneer at Biden –who, in all likelihood, will face him in the battle for the White House this November.

Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.

"Iran would not hesitate to take further necessary defensive measures to protect its legitimate interests against any act of military aggression or unlawful use of force," Iran's foreign ministry said following the attack on Israel on Saturday night.

The official statement called the attack an "inherent right of self-defense as recognized under Article 51 of the Charter, against Israel's recurring military aggressions."

"The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms its commitment to the purposes and principles of...international law, while reiterating its determination to forcefully defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests," the statement read.

In an article published in Etemad daily on Friday, Ali Rabiei listed multiple crises and problems the Iranian government is currently facing. He emphasized that without addressing these issues, it would be unwise for Tehran to engage in a potential direct conflict with Israel, which would only exacerbate the situation.

Rabiei stressed the need for wise governance and effective crisis management. "We must first mitigate the impacts of existing crises to prevent the collapse of the system," he emphasized.

He pointed to economic crises including inflation hovering around 50%, declining social cohesion, and the prevailing psychological instability within society as some of the pressing crises confronting the country and its political leadership. Given these circumstances, Rabiei advocated for the adoption of "conciliatory policies" to reduce tensions and foster unity and empathy within society.

Multiple nationwide anti-regime protests have shaken the clerical-military rulers of the Islamic Republic since 2018. Security forces have killed thousands of protesters and jailed tens of thousands of others to quell the largest unrests in November 2019 and in 2022-23. In the parliamentary elections on March 1, a sizeable majority of voters stayed home, further damaging the legitimacy of the ruling apparatus.

Although Rabiei did not explicitly mention the government’s compulsory hijab policy in his article, his statements could be interpreted as implicit criticism of the controversial hijab enforcement campaign initiated by law enforcement agencies, which came into effect on Saturday.

Earlier in the day, Iranian media reported the arrest of the wife and daughter of Ahmadreza Abedzadeh, a prominent figure in Iranian football history, in Tehran for refusing to comply with hijab regulations. Many women have forsaken the hijab, a phenomenon deeply unsettling for the ruling clerics, who see women’s defiance as a direct challenge to their ideological hold over the society.

The regime's repressive domestic policies and mounting pressures, particularly on women, have fueled widespread dissatisfaction and delegitimized the government. Similarly, Tehran's foreign policy towards Israel, and its controversial nuclear program, have isolated the country and badly damaged its oil-dependent economy.

In recent days, Iranian officials have escalated their anti-Israel rhetoric and vowed revenge for Israel’s April 1 strike that killed seven IRGC forces in Damascus. On Saturday, IRGC naval forces seized a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, alleging it belonged to an Israeli billionaire.

However, the Iranian market does not seem to view the IRGC’s actions as a success, as evidenced by the record fall in the value of the national currency, the rial. On Saturday, the US dollar rose to the unprecedented level of 660,000 rials in Iran’s free market.

Meanwhile, the relatively independent news website Khabaronline reported a significant increase in criticism against President Ebrahim Raisi, with many of his supporters calling for a cabinet reshuffle to address the demands of the people. According to the website, economic fluctuations have severely impacted the prices of essential goods and people's livelihoods, necessitating urgent action to reverse the trend.

Eqtesad 24 news website reported in February that nearly one in every three Iranians currently lives below the poverty line due to soaring inflation over the past five years.

Follow developments on Iran International's Live coverage of ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry on Saturday expressed 'deep concern' over potential repercussions of military escalation in the region.

In a statement, the foreign ministry called for ‘utmost levels’ of restraint from all parties.

More than 55 rockets have been fired from Lebanon to Israel over the past hour, according to the Israeli military's spokesperson.

This comes after about 40 rockets were fired at Israel from southern Lebanon on Friday, the Israel Defense Forces said.

Iran-backed Hezbollah militants said they had fired the rockets at Israeli artillery positions in response to recent Israeli attacks and in support of Palestinian people in Gaza.