More Iranians Emigrate To Flee Downfall, Says Pundit
A senior adviser to former reformist President Mohammad Khatami says many Iranians see emigration as a way out of the looming collapse of the regime in Iran.
A senior adviser to former reformist President Mohammad Khatami says many Iranians see emigration as a way out of the looming collapse of the regime in Iran.
Mohammad Reza Tajik wrote his article in the reformist Etemad newspaper in a cryptic language filled with phrases from religious books in a way that would presumably save him from a punitive reaction by the government.
Tajik, an open-minded intellectual, became too cautious and evasive following his arrest and imprisonment after the disputed presidential election in 2009 that re-instated Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second term.
Tajik argued that the massive wave of emigration out of Iran is the people’s reaction to ongoing social and political chaos and the resulting despair that has overwhelmed the Iranian society. Multiple crises have brought the Islamic government to the brink of a downfall.
He quoted Iranian philosopher Javad Tabatabaei as saying that European visitors to Iran in the late 19th century and early 20th century attributed Iran's political collapse in that period to the wave of emigration out of the country.
Both then and now, a majority of Iranians who leave the country for good are either well-educated experts who find the government too repressive and backward and prefer to move to developed countries, or wealthy Iranians who believe the country's long-standing and worsening political and economic crises will endanger their capital and investments in Iran.
This process drained Iran of its human and financial resources, Tabatabaei quoted European visitors as saying. At the same time, the migrations make the country's situation even worse, by decimating human capital and leaving very little if any motivation for the rest of the elite to stay in the country.
Tajik wrote in his article, that the only thing the government can do to stop this destructive trend is to surrender to essential changes that have been part of the demands by protesters and by politicians since last year, such as former President Hassan Rouhani. However, Iranian observers have said over and over that the regime finds it hard to undermine its authority and succumb to reform.
According to Tajik, recent opinion polls conducted in Iran show that an increasing number of the well-educated elites are considering emigrating as their last resort. He added that Iranians have been among the first five nations taking part in the US immigration lottery. As a result of the wave of migrations, Iran's population is expected to fall by 16 percent which could translate into a 27-percent decline in talented workforce and a 19-percent decline in the number of people in their 20s and 30s.
Other reports in Iran say the age of emigrants has dropped so much that even high school adolescents are among those who put pressure on their families to leave the country for good. Reports indicate that young Iranians are taking English classes more seriously than their other lessons, hoping to facilitate their relocation to countries such as Canada, which is currently the number one destination because of the relative ease in obtaining visas. Some reports say many of those who are considering emigration do not plan to return to Iran.
There have been many complaints in recent months about the emigration of medical staff from Iran. On the other hand there are many websites that offer guidance for doctors and nurses who wish to leave Iran.
Tajik noted that most of those who leave Iran wish to go to countries that the government has been branding as "enemies." This is a bitter irony, he said. It is also sad for Iranians who think they have wasted their money and other resources on training a workforce that is now going to leave the country for good.
This, in other words, marks a defeat for the Islamic Republic’s ideologically designed educational system. The outcome of the policies that have led the country to this stage is nothing but a defeat, about which Tajik wisely did not elaborate any further.
Amir-Abdollahian who arrived in Qatar Monday evening is accompanied by a delegation and will also visit Oman, another friendly regional country that has been a traditional mediator between Tehran and Washington.
Iranian government media had little to say about the foreign minister’s trip early on Tuesday, simply reporting on the meeting with the Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and saying that discussing international, regional and bilateral issues were the purpose of his visit to Qatar.
In recent weeks, both Iran and the United States have indicated that they are in indirect contact, although several media reports since January have also described direct talks between the US special envoy for Iran, Rob Malley and Iran’s ambassador at the United Nations, Saeed Iravani.
Israeli media and officials insist that already a limited agreement or a “mini-deal” has been worked out between Washington and Tehran aimed at stopping further Iranian uranium enrichment in exchange for US agreement to allow third countries to unfreeze Iranian funds and limited sanctions relief.
The US has denied these reports describing them as “inaccurate” or false, but earlier this month the Biden administration allowed Iraq to release more than $2.7 billion of money it owed to Iran for importing energy.
Although the administration insisted that the funds are earmarked for Iran to import food and medicines, the whole scheme is shrouded in mystery and it is not clear if Tehran would actually get its hands on cash US dollars, something Washington has tried to prevent since 2018 when it imposed economic sanctions.
Critics argue that any transfer of cash to the Iranian regime will bolster its ability to foment instability in the region. Some say that even financing its humanitarian needs will free up government funds for its military and proxy forces in the region.
The regime has been hosting leaders of Palestinian militant groups in Tehran and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei held a meeting with them.
Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), has been in Iran since last week, culminating in the arrival of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Monday.
The groups, both designated terrorist outfits by the European Union, the US, the UK, Canada, and Israel, have been receiving financial support from the Islamic Republic, presumably for wreaking havoc in Israel, or what the regime calls “resistance.”
Amir-Abdollahian’s trip to Qatar and Oman followed the visit of Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan to Tehran over the weekend after the two countries agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties in March after seven years of bitter animosity.
Although the détente with Saudi Arabia heralded an end to Iran’s isolation in the region, Riyadh has expectations from Tehran, the most important of which is security in the Persian Gulf region and an end to hostilities in Yemen.
"I would like to refer to the importance of cooperation between the two countries on regional security, especially the security of maritime navigation... and the importance of cooperation among all regional countries to ensure that it is free of weapons of mass destruction," Prince Faisal said during a press conference in Tehran.
“Who and what entities are supposed to promote Islam and the rules of Sharia if the main job of religious seminaries (Ḥowza-ye elmiyeh) is engagement in politics? You can’t say that the main job of seminaries is engaging in politics and [at the same time say] the main job of seminaries is promotion of religion,” Asr-e Iran asked Ayatollah Mohsen Araki in a commentary June 15.
Ḥowza-ye elmiyeh in Persian means a religious seminary where senior clerics, usually grand ayatollahs, teach various Islamic subjects including theology and law, according to the tenants of Shiism, to future clerics.
The city of Qom is home to the largest seminaries in the country but there are similar establishments in other cities including Najafabad in Esfahan Province and Mashhad, the capital of Khorasan-e Razavi. There are nearly three hundred thousand clerics in Iran's seminaries.
Asr-e Iran, which has moderate conservative leanings but no known political affiliations and is usually more critical of authorities than similar news websites, argued that engagement in politics is permissible when promotion of religion requires it but that does not mean its main mandate is interference in politics.
The commentary also listed several prominent Shia academics of the highest rank who never got directly engaged in politics including Grand Ayatollahs Mohammad Fazel-Lankarani and Mohammad-Taghi Bahjat in Iran and Ali Sistani in Iraq.
“Like any other citizen, Ayatollah Araki has the right to become a political activist, get engaged in politics and even hold political office. No one has the right to deny this to him and others…There is no need for him to reduce the mandate of religious seminaries…to engagement in politics to [justify] the political activities of himself and other clerics,” the commentary said.
Araki, born into a family of notable Shia clerics in Najaf, Iraq, teaches at Qom Seminary. He has served as the head of the World Forum for Proximity of Islamic Schools of Thought by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei since 2012.
Araki was appointed as a member of the Expediency Council by Khamenei in 2022. He has also been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 1998, which is responsible for overseeing the performance of the supreme leader and election of a new leader if he passes away.
Many clerics in Iran hold government offices and the government also annually allocates tens of millions of dollars to religious seminaries and other religious institutions that play the role of its propaganda arm.
A report, claimed by an opposition group to have been hacked from the Iranian presidency servers, shows that the budget for seminaries increased by 96% last year. Iranian media had reported in January that the budget for religious organizations would increase by 130 percent, reaching $500 million, while at least 20 million more Iranians are now considered poor compared to two years ago.
In a recent speech, Iran's top Sunni cleric Mowlavi Abdolhamid said clerics and religious seminaries must not be funded by the government to remain independent and critical.
“Clerics must be independent and have their own opinions to be able to speak the truth and call the government to enjoin what is good and forbid it from doing what is wrong,” Abdolhamid said in another fiery Friday sermon in the southeastern city of Zahedan on June 3.