Iranians Have Lost Trust In Their Government, Says Sociologist
An Iranian reformist cleric says two hardliner factions in Iran control the whole political system and prevent a dialogue to make changes or revise the constitution.
An Iranian reformist cleric says two hardliner factions in Iran control the whole political system and prevent a dialogue to make changes or revise the constitution.
Ahmad Mazani, who was also a lawmaker, likened one group of hardliners to the Islamic State militant group. However, he said that both hardliner factions are reactionaries.
Speaking at the congress of the pro-reform Mardomsalari (Democracy) Party, on Thursday, Mazani said one of the two poles consists of political dwarves. He was presumably referring to the Raisi administration. Also, in an apparent reference to ultraconservatives who challenge the government from within, he called one faction an ISIS-like pole that has deprived Iranians from their right to run "an ordinary life".
Meanwhile, in an interview with the website of Iranian Sociologists’ Association, prominent academic Mohammad Fazeli said that the current situation in Iran is marked by people’s deep distrust of the government.
Fazeli argued that "in the absence of trust in the government people do not have any long-term plans. In an economy with a double-digit inflation rate and under economic sanctions, political pressures, and the government's intervention in the citizen's private lives, those who have the financial resources will not invest in a factory. They will instead purchase gold and foreign currencies for short-term profit."
Opportunism and short-term planning will become a characteristic of a society in which the people do not trust the government. Such a situation does not leave too many choices for citizens, he said. “
“When the house is on fire, you have only two choices, jumping out of the window or taking the fire exit to make it to safety," he said, adding that "In a society under pressure you cannot expect individuals to consider a series of options. Even if there are really some other options, people tend to choose the ones that help them save themselves as soon as possible."
Asked if Iran's future is going to be as horrible as some analysts portray, Fazeli said, "I cannot say for sure, but I can only say it can well end up that way. We have seen other countries in similar situations in the Middle East, the Balkans and Africa. Whether the same thing will happen in Iran depends on other factors," but did not elaborate.
Fazeli said, "The Iranian state television, for instance, has said that as a media outlet that has to convey the government's messages, it has been losing audience during the past years. This is an example of loss of social capital. So, the state television in Iran is no longer a media outlet for the people of Iran. It is a radio and television organization that broadcasts to a small group of people and likes to convince them, not the nation as a whole."
He added, "I believe the only thing on the Iranian state television that is meant for everyone is football. Because it lacks any ideological content and advertisers are happy to pay for commercials." Fazeli added that state TV officials have deliberately decided not to run a television station for all the people.
In the current Iranian crisis, there are also elements who advocate destruction, the sociologist maintained. They believe nothing will be made right before everything goes wrong. In fact, in a situation marked by distrust anything goes.
The academic reiterated that lost social trust cannot be restored easily. "The government needs to take the first step for confidence building by engaging in symbolic acts. It should offer gestures to the society that indicate there is a will in the government to make things right."
However, worshippers held their customary Friday protest rally in the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan following prayers, chanting "Death to Khamenei" and "Death to IRGC."
Due to internet shutdown by the government, the sermon by outspoken Sunni leader Mowlavi Abdolhamid was not broadcast live. Internet watchdog NetBlocks confirmed that the real-time network data showed a significant disruption to connectivity in Zahedan. “The incident comes amid a growing security presence during Friday protests," said NetBlocks.
Makki Grand Mosque, where Abdolhamid usually delivers his Friday sermons, was under siege since the early hours of Friday and security forces tried to enter the Sunni mosque but were confronted by angry people. Some social media videos show snipers stationed on the roofs of the buildings and hills in the area.
"We swear on our comrades' blood to stand strong until the end," hundreds of demonstrators were seen chanting in a video from the flashpoint city. Another widely-circulated video showed security forces beating and arresting a Baluch man trying to enter the Makki Mosque.
Similar protests were also reported in other cities of the province such as Khash and Rask.
An audio file of Friday prayer sermons was released to media later in the day, in which Abdolhamid condemned the crackdown that has been going on for over five months across the country, calling for restraint by regime forces.
"Listen to the people and the opposition, and if you cannot solve the problems of the people, leave and let someone who can solve come forward,” he said, implying the need for fundamental change.
"There are problems with domestic policies, and these problems have led to people's protests," Abdolhamid said, adding that the country is in “a serious crisis” and it requires major thinking emerge from it.
Decrying the economic hardships imposed on the people due to rising inflation and devaluation of the national currency, he said that Iran is a rich country and such problems stem from maladjusted domestic and foreign policies. This is the result of having tensions with many countries, he noted.
"Accept that your policies are wrong... we are not your enemies, we feel sorry for the people who do not have the power to buy bread and meat," he added.
He also talked about the massacre of people in the city, known as Bloody Friday, which took place on September 30, when security forces killed more than 80 people, including women and children.
Calling for the truth to be clarified, he said that people were shot at from four directions and nearly 100 people, including 18 children, were killed; 300 were injured, 80 of whom are still hospitalized; 17 people were shot in the eyes.
Mowlavi Abdul-Ghaffar Naqshbandi, the prayer leader of the city of Rask, issued a statement on Friday, threatening the regime of “a historic fatwa.” A fatwa is legal ruling is Islamic which reflects changing economic, social and political circumstances, and is usually abided by the Muslims.
This week has been the most challenging for the government of President Ebrahim Raisi as the national currency is in freefall against the US dollar and the government seems just bewildered and confused.
A seasoned politician and political analyst has asserted that President Raisi’s administration is simply incapable of solving the country’s problems, and it is best for everyone that he resigns.
Former lawmakers Gholam Ali Jafarzadeh Imanabadi has said in an interview with Rouydad24 news website that Raisi should resign his post before he discredits himself even more than the credibility he has already lost. Imanabadi further charged that Raisi understands neither politics nor the economy.
“What he says about his ‘popular government’ insults the nation’s intelligence,” the politician said, adding that Raisi’s performance has even discredited his father-in-law Ahmad Alamolhoda, a firebrand cleric, who is Ali Khamenei’s representative in Khorasan Province.
He said the Raisi administration has imposed a huge cost on the nation by doing nothing and simply chanting slogans. Imanabadi added: “The best thing he can do is to resign at once and disband the government.” At the same time, he said, the Guardian Council should allow more popular candidates such as former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani to run for president.
Imanabadi claimed that while Khamenei had allowed negotiations with the West, Raisi and his team refused to make an agreement to revive the nuclear deal and imposed a high cost on the nation. He also criticized Raisi for going to China this month, while the Chinese President has not apologized for making a comment that undermined Iran’s territorial integrity.
Imanabadi predicted that because of Raisi’s performance, protests will start once again in the spring when angry people take to the street against the government.
Meanwhile, Khabar Online wrote on Wednesday, February 22, that before February, Iranian lawmakers often talked about questioning the government about its economic policy, but now the situation is so serious that no one at the parliament wants anything less than impeaching the ministers and the President. Khabar Online quoted lawmaker Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini as having said: “Majles [parliament] can impeach the ministers and the government. The situation is worse than ever.”
Meshkini said that the Majles is planning to impeach up to 9 of Raisi’s cabinet ministers. The president’s economic team is incompetent although some of Iran’s problems are the result of its foreign policy and flaws in the country’s political structure.
He added that the Majles held a two-hour long closed-door session on Monday during which lawmakers resolved to hold the government accountable and he reiterated that the current situation cannot continue any further.
Meshkini explained that some lawmakers believe impeachment is a time consuming process and maintain that a better solution is to convince Raisi to change his cabinet altogether. On the other hand, some lawmakers prefer to keep silent to ensure their electability next year by remaining loyal to the hardliner camp.
In another development, prominent reformist analyst Abbas Abdi wrote in Etemad newspaper that Raisi is not fit for the presidency.
He said one month after Raisi promised to the parliament that the rial will regain value, we have seen a 15 percent rise for the dollar. Abdi charged that the government has no economic plan and measures such as replacing the Central Bank governor will not solve the problem.
Unfortunately, this government cannot stand up to the job of solving the country’s problems and no positive change can be expected. Iran is going to miss opportunities and even positive measures such as releasing political prisoners cannot bring back people’s trust, Abdi said.