Some Iran Conservatives Call for A Swift Change in Foreign Policy

Video footage from the December 29 inauguration ceremony of the new governor of the southeastern province, IRGC Brigadier General Mohammad Karami, contains parts of a speech by Supreme Leader’s representative Mostafa Mahami, and some lawmakers.

Mahami who also serves as the Shiite Friday Imam in the Sunni majority province capital, Zahedan, is seen in the video criticizing the government of President Ebrahim Raisi for economic hardships resulting from high inflation.

“Is it weakness [of the government], or God forbid, we are facing the mafia [of profiteers], or the ministers and authorities cannot stand against these mafias,” he said.

“I told the president that all governments have craftily made rosy reports, but we need to see the outcome in people’s subsistence,” Mahami said while asking officials to tell him that people’s problems will not be solved by mere “talking therapy” and saying things should happen without taking action.

Mahami also strongly criticized the foreign ministry for failing to resolve the dispute with the Taliban over Iran's share of the waters of Helmand (Hirmand in Persian) and revival of the Afghan-Iranian 1973 water treaty.

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“The foreign ministry has been extremely useless in pursuing Sistan’s share of the waters,” he said. “You rattle sabers for the US but don’t have what it takes to secure your rights from Afghanistan?” he asked.

Tehran has for decades complained about not always receiving its fair share of the water. In 1999, for instance, the Taliban turned off the flow completely. In August 2021, a Taliban spokesman dismissed as "enemy propaganda" reports and a video circulating on social media showing waters flowing from the Kamal Khan Dam towards Iran, insisting the water was not for Iran.

Sistan is the northern, Shiite majority part of the province while Baluchestan refers to the southern, Sunni majority part. The province has suffered heavily from draught and seen hundreds of villages abandoned in the past two decades.

The new governor, Karami, who served as the commander of IRGC Ground Forces in southeastern Iran replaced Hossein Modarres Khiabani following the escalation of protests in the Sunni majority areas and particularly its capital Zahedan.

The Sunni Baluch population have taken to the streets in Zahedan and several other cities of the province every Friday after prayers since September 30 when government forces cracked down on protesters after prayers led by the popular cleric Mowlavi Abdolhamid in Zahedan and killed more than 80 protesters.

This week locals have reported extra heavy security measures in Zahedan including check points on all roads leading to the city and around Makki Mosque where Abdolhamid delivers his fiery speeches every Friday to thousands of Sunnis, presumably in preparation for stopping the flow of worshippers to the mosque this Friday.

In his sermons Abdolhamid has protested to the “mass arrests on the streets” and accused the authorities of torturing detainees until they accept crimes that they never committed. He has also said he holds Khamenei responsible for the violence against Sunni Baluchis and other protesters.

The province, Iran's least developed where around two-thirds of the population live in extreme poverty, is located on a drug trafficking route from neighboring Afghanistan and is known for one of the highest counts of executions in the country which are often related to drug trafficking.

According to Baluch activists one-third of over 500 executions in the country in 2022 involved people of Baluch ethnicity.

When the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi submitted the substantially enlarged draft state budget last week, it was apparent that the government has come up with plans to depend more on tax revenues instead of oil income. But now that the parliament has started reviewing the bill, it has become clearer that the administration plans to outsource most of its oil sales to military and religious organs. 

In the budget bill for the next Iranian year, which starts March 21, the government has granted new permits to some departments such as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic and Astan Quds Razavi -- the Mashhad-based custodian and the administrative organization which managing a major religious shrine -- as well as a number pension funds to sell oil products on behalf of the government and earn some of the income. 

According to the Note 1 of the bill – titled “Oil and its relations with the government” -- the National Iranian Oil Company is obligated to deliver “crude oil and gas condensates” to entities introduced by the executive bodies. As per the new measures, the General Staff of the Armed Forces is given the authority to sell and refine oil up to €4.5 billion. It means that the Armed forces can give crude oil to refineries and receive products that should be exported. 

According to legal experts, this move, which also exists in a limited way in the current year’s budget, violates the constitution. This year, the government gave this permission to some individuals under the general title of "persons approved by executive bodies". The parliament had approved to give €3.5 billion of crude oil “to individuals” to sell on the world market and give the proceeds to the military. Last February, the Revolutionary Guard also received $80 million of oil from the government to sell as an additional budget appropriation. It also remains unclear who and under what conditions will export the oil amid US sanctions. Many members of Iran's hardliner dominated parliament are former members of the IRGC.

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Sirous Omidvar, an Economics professor at the Allameh Tabatabai University, told Tejarat News that the legal details of such a mechanism are unclear and such economic handouts exclude ordinary business people. He predicts that such a mechanism is expected to lead to corruption.

A well-publicized scandal broke in 2013 when authorities arrested Babak Zanjani, a businessman, for embezzling at least $2.7 billion from illicit oil sales during international sanctions from 2009-2013. Zanjani used companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) for the oil he exported, leading to speculations that well-connected officials had a stake in the scheme. He received the death penalty which has so far not been carried out.

The draft budget is based on 1.4 million barrels of oil exports per day, despite US sanctions, an increase from the current reported figure of 800 thousand barrels. The discrepancy between reality and budget estimates gets even more interesting as the government expects to sell each barrel of oil for $85, while Iran is reportedly selling its oil to China at half that amount. The government estimate would mean more than $43 billion in oil revenues from March 2023 to March 2024. However, the official website of the government, IRNA, emphasized that the exact figure of crude exports is confidential and would not be announced due to the sanctions.

The projected oil exports in the budget are the clearest sign of unrealistic revenue estimates that will not materialize unless Iran resolves its differences with the United States over its nuclear program.

The government being aware that its oil revenue estimates are not realistic, it has substantially increased tax collection projections. In July, the Supreme Accounting Office released a report covering the period March 21- May 20 showing that except tax revenues, all other major sources of income grossly underperformed. The government’s revenues from taxes, oil exports, customs duties, etc. totaled 880 trillion rials or about $3.5 billion (average free market exchange rate at the time) in the 60-day period. This was just 37 percent of the projected budget revenues. It is important to note that only 15 percent of the projected oil income was collected.

Iran International had earlier reported exclusively that Robert Malley and Saeed Iravani had held three meetings and the US State Department did not deny the report after being specifically asked.

In response to questions submitted by Iran International on January 17, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, “We have the means to deliver specific and firm messages to Iran when it is in America’s interest to do so.”

Iran International had asked the DoS that according to information it obtained, US Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York, Saeed Iravani, “at least three times in the last two months.”

In its response, the DoS did not deny or confirm Malley’s possible meetings with Tehran’s envoy but underlined that the US has its channels to communicate messages to the Iranian side.

However, on Thursday, Iran's mission to the United Nations announced, "it has not held any negotiations with any of the US officials."

"Iran's ambassador to the United Nations meets with various political and academic figures, but he has not had any negotiations with American officials," ISNA news agency quoted Iran’s mission as saying.

If Malley did meet Iravani face-to-face, it would be the first reported direct meeting between US and Iranian diplomats since the Biden administration assumed office and offered talks to revive the JCPOA. Iran has consistently refused direct talks with the United States.

The release of prisoners came following the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to Turkey this week.

The four were arrested last year on charges of complicity with the security organizations of the Islamic Republic to kidnap an opponent of the regime in Turkey.

On Tuesday, a Turkish court ordered them released on condition of being banned from leaving the country.

Morteza Soltan-Sanjari, the only Iranian prisoner in this case, was transferred to prison until the next trial.

In February 2022, Turkish Intelligence announced that it had arrested members of a team affiliated with the Islamic Republic who had organized several kidnappings.

According to Turkish media, the team that organized the kidnappings included a Turkish state prosecutor, the owner of a defense company, a retired Turkish army colonel, and several non-commissioned officers.

Oda TV, an online news portal, claimed the target of the kidnappers were Moahammad Rezaie and Shahnam Golshani, both opponents of the Iranian regime.

This is not the first time Iranian regime agents try to kidnap and kill its opponents in Turkey. In 2021, Turkey released Mohammad Reza Naserzadeh, who had been arrested by Turkish intelligence in connection with the killing of Masoud Molavi, a former Iranian defense official, in Istanbul in 2019.

Yoon, speaking with South Korean troops stationed in Abu Dhabi early this week, said South Korea and the UAE are under "very similar" circumstances, each facing North Korea and Iran as "the enemy, biggest threat."

His remarks prompted a rare spat between Seoul and Tehran, at a time when relations have already been testy over frozen Iranian funds in South Korea and suspected arms dealings between Iran and North Korea.

Iran's deputy foreign minister on legal affairs, Reza Najafi, summoned Yun Kang-hyeon, the South Korean ambassador on Wednesday to protest against Yoon's "interventionist remarks," the official IRNA news agency said.

Najafi "pointed to the deep-rooted and friendly relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran with most of the Persian Gulf countries," IRNA said, describing Yoon's comment as "interfering" and "undermining peace and stability in the region."

South Korea's foreign ministry retaliated on Thursday by calling in Iran's ambassador to Seoul to explain President Yoon Suk Yeol's remarks as words of "encouragement" to the troops.

The incident came after a similar unfriendly gesture by China’s President XI Jinping in December during his visit to Saudi Arabia. After he met with the Gulf Cooperation Council, a joint statement was issued in which China endorsed UAE’s claims on three Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf.

This led to serious controversy in Iran, where critics slammed the government for its weakness to allow China, which is touted as an ally, to support an anti-Iranian resolution.

A similar situation emerged with Shia-dominated Iraq, where the prime minister used the term “Arabian Gulf” for the Persian Gulf angering Iranians.

The cumulative impact of these incidents, pundits in Iran argued, shows Tehran’s growing isolation and loss of diplomatic leverage.

Yoon's office said his comment was meant to encourage the soldiers. Seoul's foreign ministry said on Tuesday it has offered explanations to Tehran and its commitment to developing bilateral ties remains unchanged.

Opposition lawmakers slammed the incident as a "diplomatic disaster," and some members of Yoon's own party also said he should have been more careful.

Najafi also accused South Korea of pursuing an "unfriendly approach" toward Iran, singling out its frozen funds.

"South Korea's failure to take effective action to solve the mentioned problems would lead Iran to review its relations," Najafi said, according to IRNA.

Iran has repeatedly demanded the release of some $7 billion of its funds frozen in South Korean banks under US sanctions.

Washington re-imposed sanctions on Tehran in 2018 after then President Donald Trump pulled out from Iran's 2015 nuclear accord with six major powers, under which it agreed to curb its nuclear programmes in return for UN-imposed sanctions relief.

South Korea was once one of Iran's biggest crude buyers in Asia, and both sides have been in talks over ways to unfreeze the funds and resume oil trade, after negotiations to revive the 2015 deal kicked off in 2021. However, the talks stalled in September and meanwhile tensions grew between Iran and Western powers over its deadly crackdown on protesters and delivery of killer drones to Russia.

With reporting by Reuters