Biden’s Middle East Trip Raises More Questions Than Answers
Iran is likely to be a central issue in United States President Joe Biden’s mid-July Middle East tour – with differing expectations as to what he may achieve.
Iran is likely to be a central issue in United States President Joe Biden’s mid-July Middle East tour – with differing expectations as to what he may achieve.
Biden’s trip, July 13-16, has reportedly put on hold until later this month further talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), pushing them beyond a related four-week deadline announced early June by Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for the agency’s ability to certify the peaceful natureof Tehran’s atomic program.
By the last quarter of 2022, Biden’s leeway could be restricted by Democratic Party losses in mid-term Congressional elections. The continuing expansion of Iran’s nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits, including the enrichment of uranium to 60 percent purity, has led many of the deal’s US critics, Democrats but especially Republicans, to call failure on Biden’s approach.
Some speculation over Biden’s Middle East trip – which will take in Israel, the occupied Palestinian West Bank, and Saudi Arabia – centers on whether he will meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, whom Biden criticized on coming to office after US intelligence implicated him in the 2018 murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudis’ Istanbul consulate.
‘Not about Saudi Arabia’
Biden told reporters at the Nato Madrid summit last week that his visit to Riyadh was to a summit of Gulf nations. "It’s in Saudi Arabia, but it’s not about Saudi Arabia,” Biden said. “And so there’s no commitment that is being made or – I’m not even sure; I guess I will see the king and the crown prince, but that's – that’s not the meeting I'm going to. They’ll be part of a much larger meeting.”
The president will meet leaders of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain – as well as the leaders of Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.
US officials have suggested the president’s visit will take forward plans for closer military co-operation between Israeli and the Arab Gulf States, aimed at thwarting Iranian and Iranian-supplied missiles and drones, and building on the US-brokered 2020 Israeli ‘normalization’ agreements with the UAE and Bahrain.
Pumping more oil?
Biden said in Madrid that the Israelis had “come out so strongly for my going to Saudi.” But it remains unclear whether a new defense arrangement would make JCPOA revival harder or help make its revival more palatable to Saudi Arabia and Israel.
While pragmatists have argued Biden should seek Saudi agreement to pump more oil and curb cost-push inflation that has sent gasoline prices in the US to around $5 a gallon, human-rights advocates say he should concentrate on holding the Saudis and others accountable over human rights. Supporters of the JCPOA, meanwhile, argue the deal’s revival would ease oil prices by easing US sanctions restricting the flow of Iranian crude.
King Salman, now 86, is widely reported to oppose ‘normalization’ with Israel ahead of the acceptance of a viable Palestinian state, in line with Arab League policy since 2002. In 2008, according to cables unearthed by Wikileaks, King Salman urged the US to “cut off the head of the snake” with military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
In a Monday statement on the eve of the parliament session to review the bill, more than 430 Iranian activists warned Belgian politicians against “giving the green light to state terrorism," demanding that the bill be abandoned.
The signatories noted that in case parliament approves the bill, the possibility of exchanging convicts will enable the Iranian government to continue abductions, hostage-taking and terrorist activities in Europe and elsewhere.
The draft law proposed by the Belgian government to the parliament could put the seal of approval on an agreement with Iran, which could lead to the release of Assadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat serving a 20-year prison sentence in Belgium for “attempted murder and involvement in terrorism” for his role plotting to bomb a gathering of the exiled opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK) near Paris in 2018.
Earlier on Monday, a group of Iranians held a rally in Vienna to protest the possible extradition of Assadi to Iran.
Moreover, several former senior members of the US law enforcement and national security community, including former FBI Director Louis Freeh and some former US military commanders, sent a letter to the Belgian parliament urging rejection of the bill.
“This pending treaty is totally disrespectful to the law enforcement officers who risked their lives to prevent the 2018 attack. It also frustrates the judicial system’s ability to fulfill its mission to protect the citizens of Europe by denying it the ability to make perpetrators accountable,” read the letter, seen by POLITICO.
The authors warned that the treaty would effectively establish Belgium as a “sanctuary country” for terrorist operations, and a haven for Iranian intelligence services to maintain a European command center.
Three Republican US congressmen — Randy K. Weber and Louie Gohmert of Texas, and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania — have also written a letter to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo calling on him to oppose the treaty. The lawmakers praised Belgian authorities for “preventing a heinous tragedy” by foiling Assadi’s “dastardly plot,” which they noted was carried out under the “ploy of diplomatic immunity.”
Also on Monday, Iran International broke the news that Tehran has detained a Belgian aid worker, identified as Olivier Vandecasteele, 41, since March, another example of the often-used Iranian tactic of imprisoning foreigners as hostages to exchange them with certain Iranians jailed in Western countries. He has served in various international humanitarian organizations since at least 2006, including, Médecins du Monde, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and Relief International.
On July 2, an informed source had told Iran International that at least two Belgian citizens are currently in prison in Iran. One of the two is apparently an Iranian-Belgian professor from Leuven University, but the identity of the second prisoner was unclear until further investigation revealed it was Olivier Vandecasteele.
Following the controversy, the spokesman of the Belgian Federal public service of Justice, Edward Landtsheere told Iran International on Sunday that the bill on exchange of convicts is not intended for a specific person, but critics say it could end in repatriating the convicted former diplomat to Iran where he will most probably go free.
Although some activists, such as Oxford-based human rights lawyer Kaveh Moussavi, are of the opinion that the bill will not lead to Asadi’s.,release because such a move will be against a dozen international treaties to combat terrorism, there are Belgian politicians, such as representatives Theo Francken, Michael Freilich and Darya Safai who have warned of the dangers of the deal.
The detention could be another example of the often-used Iranian tactic of imprisoning foreigners as hostages to exchange them with certain Iranians jailed in Western countries.
A draft law proposed by the Belgian government to the parliament could put the seal of approval on an agreement with Iran, which could lead to the release of Assadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat serving a 20-year prison sentence in Belgium for planning a terror attack in Paris 4 years ago.
Iran’s security forces have detained Olivier Vandecasteele, 41, an aid worker who has served in various international humanitarian organizations since at least 2006, including, Médecins du Monde, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and Relief International.
Vandecasteele worked in India, Afghanistan, and Mali and later became the director of NRC’s Iran operations in 2015 and assumed the same position with Relief International in Iran in 2020. He played an important role during the height of the Covid pandemic in Iran, distributing humanitarian aid throughout the country.
In July 2021, Relief International ended its relationship with Vandecasteele. In an email to Iran International, Relief International said it is not aware of Vandecasteele’s detention in Iran, despite information at our disposal showing that officials of the aid organization were informed of his arrest.
On July 2, an informed source had told Iran International that at least two Belgian citizens are currently in prison in Iran. One of the two is apparently an Iranian-Belgian professor from Leuven University, but the identity of the second prisoner was unclear until further investigation revealed it was Olivier Vandecasteele.
In what appeared to be internal organizational issues, he was put aside as a manager of Relief International last year and he returned to Europe. But an informed source told Iran International’s Fardad Farahzad that this could have resulted from pressures by Iran’s interior ministry’s foreign citizens’ bureau.
Vandecasteele, however, later returned to Iran on a tourist visa to visit a friend. It is possible that his return to Iran was an arranged trap by Iranian intelligence to detain and exchange him with Assadi.
The agreement to allow Iranian convicts serving their prison terms in Belgium to return to Iran and presumably serve their remaining sentences there has now opened a real chance that Assadi, convicted of terrorism, will be allowed to go back and be received as a hero, as some Belgian media and politicians have pointed out.
It is unclear if strong objections to the government bill by foreign figures, the opposition and other lawmakers in Belgium will stop its approval. A parliamentary committee is set to start debating the bill on July 5.
In a letter to president of the Belgian Chamber of Representatives Eliane Tillieux, Former FBI Director Louis J. Freeh, former National Security Advisor James L. Jones and seven other US dignitaries denounced the proposed Belgian-Iranian prisoner transfer treaty.
In a video message Friday, Darya Safai, a member of the Belgian Parliament of Iranian descent, protested to the government’s decision to rush a prisoner exchange treaty with Iran.
Safai told Iran International that the bill does not exclude those in prison for terrorist activities and will pave the way for the release of Iranians involved in terrorism in Belgium. “My life and that of my husband, children, and so many others are in danger.”
Another Belgian lawmaker, Michael Freilich, has also questioned the government's “urgent” prisoner exchange plans. “Why does this all have to be so fast?” he asked the Parliament. “I strongly oppose any deal to release convicted terrorists from jail.”
Relief International was established by an American-Iranian, Farshad Rastegar, after the devastating Bam earthquake in Iran that killed 26,000 people on December 26, 2003.