Iran Guards accused of profiting from sex trafficking, exploiting children
Iran's Revolutionary Guards profit from the sex trafficking of women and girls and exploit refugees and children to support military operations across the Middle East, according to an analysis by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
The report by researcher Ella Rosenberg, described Iran as a source, transit and destination country for sex trafficking. Rosenberg said trafficking networks move women and girls within Iran and across its borders, including to Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, with the alleged assistance of Revolutionary Guards officials who profit from bribes and fees imposed on the sex trade.
Rosenberg cited widespread poverty, corruption and economic mismanagement as factors contributing to the exploitation. She argued that Article 1041 of Iran's Civil Code, which permits girls to marry at 13 and younger girls with parental consent and court approval, has helped normalize the sexual exploitation of minors. She also linked nikah mut'ah, a temporary marriage contract, to the vulnerability of women and girls to trafficking networks.
The analysis said the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force and the Basij militia systematically traffic undocumented migrants, refugees and children to sustain their proxy wars. It accused the Guards of using deception, financial coercion and threats of deportation to recruit Afghan and Pakistani refugees into the Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun brigades for deployment in the region.
Rosenberg also accused the Basij of recruiting children as young as 12 for military indoctrination and combat support roles. The report says that using underpaid or unpaid refugees and children reduces military expenditures by billions of dollars, freeing resources for the Guards' business interests and regional armed groups.
US President Donald Trump speaks next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu upon arrival for meetings at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, US, December 29, 2025.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Washington could “soon finish the job” against Iran unless Tehran changed course, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was prepared to strike Iran without US support and vowed to bring down Tehran’s government.
“Unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, after saying Iran had been “systematically destroyed, both Militarily and Financially.”
Addressing the people of Israel directly, Trump pointed to Tehran’s long-standing slogans of “Death to Israel, Death to America,” saying it had only been a matter of time before Iran sought to act on such threats.
He endorsed Netanyahu for re-election in Israel’s October 27 parliamentary vote, calling him a “Great Warrior Prime Minister” and an “even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
He said that if Israel were led by “anyone other than Bibi,” the United States would have to take on the work against Iran itself, adding that he was “not inclined to do so.”
Trump gave Netanyahu his “Complete and Total Endorsement” for re-election and praised him as “Strong, Brave, and Brilliant.”
Netanyahu thanked Trump on X, saying: “Together we will complete the mission!”
Israelis will vote on October 27 in the country’s first national election since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack. The prime minister is not directly elected but emerges through coalition-building in the 120-seat Knesset.
Trump did not say what further action against Iran he had in mind. Earlier this month, he said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 US midterm elections and said Washington and Tehran were having “productive discussions.”
His latest comments come after he and Netanyahu discussed the possibility of a new military operation against Iran, according to Axios, which reported last week that the Israeli leader raised concerns about intelligence suggesting Tehran was trying to rebuild its nuclear program.
Netanyahu says Israel can strike Iran without US support
Separately on Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel was prepared to launch a preemptive strike against Iran without US support and that his objectives regarding Tehran did not depend on Washington’s approval.
“The objectives I set do not depend on American approval,” Netanyahu said as he presented an updated national security doctrine, according to Israel Hayom. “To the extent necessary, we will also act independently. We have done so before, and if necessary, we will do so again.”
Netanyahu described confronting Iran as his “life’s mission” and identified a nuclear-armed Iran as Israel’s greatest security threat. “We are prepared to take the initiative,” he said. “We must prevent the enemy from delivering the first blow.”
He said “90% of the job is done,” pointing to Iran’s economic crisis, recent protests and what he described as the government’s weakened position.
“We must bring this regime down once and for all,” Netanyahu said. “That is the directive I have given to all the security agencies.”
Iranian officials raised the possibility of a shift in nuclear policy and threatened retaliation against further US-Israeli attacks, while Tehran outlined its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
The developments came after Iran's parliament approved a new defense minister with longstanding ties to the Revolutionary Guards' missile program, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for eliminating what he described as the Iranian threat.
Nuclear doctrine comes under scrutiny
Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may take a different position on nuclear weapons from his late father, Ali Khamenei, whose religious ruling opposed their development, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Naderi said.
“From Mojtaba Khamenei's conduct, my understanding is that his fatwa will be different,” Naderi told.
Naderi separately expressed his own support for acquiring an atomic bomb, saying he had advocated the move for more than a decade and believed Iran should pursue what he called ultimate military deterrence.
Calls for nuclear deterrence have become more prominent among Friday prayer leaders and representatives of the supreme leader, Naderi added.
The remarks came after US Vice President JD Vance said Washington had achieved a decisive military advantage over Iran but could not consider the conflict finished without a firm commitment that Tehran would not rebuild its nuclear program.
Vance also linked US involvement to energy security, warning that Iranian control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could increase gasoline prices.
Hormuz proposal remains unresolved
Iran's seven-day proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains under consideration, with Tehran reviewing Washington's comments, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
“Our conditions are completely clear and were presented to the United States in the form of a seven-day plan,” Araghchi said.
Under the proposal, the strait would reopen on the sixth day if Washington met Iran's conditions, with negotiations resuming on the seventh, Araghchi added.
The conditions were fair and had previously been accepted by the United States, he said.
New defense minister threatens retaliation
Iran's parliament approved Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi for the post of defense minister with 237 votes in favor and 15 against.
Akhlaghi, a sanctioned veteran of Iran's missile industry, replaces Aziz Nasirzadeh, who was killed during the opening day of US-Israeli strikes in February.
The new minister warned that any further American attack would bring casualties among US personnel stationed in the region.
“If he drops one bomb, he should see how many of his people he will have to carry out horizontally (dead),” Akhlaghi said, referring to President Donald Trump.
Iran's armed forces have also prepared a new operational plan for any renewed attack, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said.
The plan would be more destructive than those used during the previous wars and would not follow familiar patterns, Rezaei added.
Army commander-in-chief Amir Hatami separately urged the new defense minister to accelerate military modernization, citing the impact of recent wars and international sanctions.
Israel presses for further action
The complete elimination of what Israel considers the Iranian threat remains a central objective for the remainder of Trump's presidency, Netanyahu said in an interview with Life, Liberty & Levin.
Netanyahu argued that military and economic pressure should continue and called for the eventual removal of Iran's current political leadership.
The Israeli prime minister also said Tehran is pursuing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States and seeking nuclear warheads for them.
Separately, Iran's hardline Kayhan newspaper urged strikes against Israeli nuclear facilities if Washington attacked the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz.
The warning followed Trump's suggestion that US forces could target the fortified site.
The statements underscored the competing priorities shaping the confrontation: Washington's demand for guarantees against renewed Iranian nuclear activity, Tehran's conditions for restoring maritime access, and continuing threats of military escalation from both sides.
Iran's new Defense Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi attends an official meeting, with the Islamic Republic's flag behind him.
Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi, a sanctioned veteran of Iran's missile industry with ties to the Revolutionary Guards, became defense minister on Sunday, following his predecessor's killing in the war with the United States and Israel.
Akhlaghi secured 237 votes in favor and 15 against in a virtual parliamentary session attended by 277 lawmakers.
He replaces Aziz Nasirzadeh, who was killed on February 28 during the opening day of joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The ministry had since been overseen by acting minister Majid Ebn al-Reza.
Unlike several previous defense ministers who rose through military command positions, Akhlaghi built his career inside Iran's weapons manufacturing establishment, overseeing industrial organizations involved in missile production, aerospace technologies and military procurement.
His name has appeared on international sanctions lists since 2007, reflecting his longstanding involvement in institutions central to Iran's ballistic missile program.
From engineering to missile production
Born on September 10, 1958, in Rasht, northern Iran, Akhlaghi studied chemical engineering at Amirkabir University of Technology before earning a master's degree in strategic management from Malek Ashtar University of Technology, an institution affiliated with the Defense Ministry.
He entered Iran's defense industries in the early 1980s and spent more than four decades in technical, industrial and managerial positions, according to Iranian state-linked media.
Much of his career has involved solid-fuel missile propulsion systems and the management of industrial facilities associated with ballistic missile development.
Solid-fuel propulsion allows missiles to remain stored for extended periods and reduces preparation time before launch, making it a significant component of Iran's missile capabilities.
Akhlaghi previously headed the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group, a subsidiary of the Aerospace Industries Organization involved in Iran's ballistic missile program.
In November 2014, then-Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan appointed him managing director of the Aerospace Industries Organization, replacing Mehdi Farahi.
Iran's new Defense Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi (right) is welcomed by acting Defense Minister Majid Ebn al-Reza during a meeting with senior military officials.
He later became head of the Defense Industries Organization, which produces conventional weapons and supplies military equipment to Iran's armed forces.
Akhlaghi's role in the Fateh-110 missile project
Akhlaghi's close relationship with Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, a founder of the Revolutionary Guards' missile program, was central to his involvement in developing Iran's missile industry.
Akhlaghi worked closely with Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, widely known as the father of Iran's ballistic missile program. Tehrani Moghaddam oversaw the development of the Revolutionary Guards' missile arsenal before he was killed in a November 2011 explosion at a military facility near Tehran.
Iran's IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, citing The Eternal Man, a biography by Masoumeh Sepehri, reported that Akhlaghi approved $10 million in equipment purchases and production facilities for the Fateh-110 missile despite uncertainty over whether the project would succeed.
The account, based on an interview with a senior missile designer, describes Akhlaghi's direct involvement in financing infrastructure used to produce missiles for the Revolutionary Guards.
Pezeshkian also referred to Akhlaghi's association with Tehrani Moghaddam during Sunday's parliamentary session, crediting figures such as the two men with developing Iran's military capabilities.
Nearly two decades under international sanctions
Akhlaghi's involvement in Iran's missile industry brought him under international sanctions long before his appointment to the cabinet.
The United Nations Security Council included him in Resolution 1747, adopted on March 24, 2007, identifying him as head of the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group.
The group had previously been sanctioned over its involvement in Iran's ballistic missile program.
The US Treasury Department also placed Akhlaghi under sanctions in 2008.
US State Department information about his activities identified him as a senior figure in missile-related industrial operations and described his participation in negotiations to purchase equipment for the missile industry.
In 2020, the first Trump administration sanctioned him in connection with his position as director of the Defense Industries Organization.
Iran's new Defense Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi addresses lawmakers during a virtual parliamentary session.
The European Union has also included Akhlaghi on its sanctions lists, identifying his senior roles within both the Defense Industries Organization and the Aerospace Industries Organization.
Britain imposed sanctions on him in 2023, citing his involvement in activities connected to the development of systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
His name was also included in UN sanctions lists following the reimposition of international sanctions in September 2025.
The measures have made Akhlaghi one of the more extensively sanctioned figures to enter Pezeshkian's cabinet, with restrictions linked to his work in institutions involved in missile development and weapons production.
Missile production and air defenses top priorities
Akhlaghi outlined plans to expand weapons production, strengthen air defenses and rebuild military industrial facilities during his parliamentary confirmation session.
His proposed program includes developing new military technologies, improving production efficiency and increasing cooperation with universities and technology companies.
Akhlaghi also proposed shortening the development cycle for certain new defense technologies to a maximum of six months.
The program envisages increasing the share of production outsourced to companies outside the Defense Ministry to 75 percent in the Iranian year beginning in March 2026 and more than 85 percent the following year.
Highly classified weapons production would remain within facilities controlled by the ministry.
Akhlaghi has also identified continued support for armed groups aligned with the Islamic Republic across the region as a ministry priority.
His agenda builds on programs developed under Nasirzadeh, with adjustments intended to address the damage and military requirements arising from the recent wars.
Akhlaghi portrayed Iran's military capabilities as having frustrated US and Israeli objectives during the latest conflict.
"These capabilities have brought the American-Zionist enemy to the point of desperation in the recent war and placed it in a strategic deadlock," Akhlaghi told lawmakers.
His remarks came as the Defense Ministry faces the task of replacing damaged infrastructure and restoring weapons production capacity following months of military confrontation.
Warning to Washington over possible strikes
Akhlaghi also delivered a warning to the United States on the sidelines of Sunday's parliamentary session.
Asked about the possibility of Washington using the GBU-43 bomb, commonly known as the Mother of All Bombs, against Iran, he said the Defense Ministry had prepared measures to respond.
"The US president should be thinking about how to get his forces out of our region alive. If he drops one bomb, he will have to see how many of his troops he will have to take out of the region horizontally (dead)," Akhlaghi told reporters.
The remarks followed warnings by US officials about the possibility of further military action against Iranian facilities.
Iran's new Defense Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi secured 237 votes in favor and 15 against in parliament's confidence vote.
President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of striking the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned of severe military consequences if negotiations with Iran fail.
A sanctioned missile official takes charge after the war
Akhlaghi's appointment follows the war with the United States and Israel, which killed senior Iranian military officials and exposed vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic's military infrastructure and air defenses.
Pezeshkian told lawmakers that the new minister had the backing of the army, the Revolutionary Guards and other military and security institutions.
The president also referred to Akhlaghi's presence on US sanctions lists and expressed hope that he would remain alive to continue his work.
The decision to appoint an official sanctioned for nearly two decades over his involvement in Iran's ballistic missile program points to the leadership's continued reliance on the same military-industrial establishment that oversaw the development of its missile arsenal.
Akhlaghi now faces the task of rebuilding military production capacity and expanding weapons manufacturing at a time when Iran's missile program remains a major source of confrontation with Washington and European governments.
A wave of deadly attacks on Iranian security forces in the country’s restive southeast has brought renewed attention to a coalition of Baluch militants seeking to broaden their fight against the Islamic Republic, raising questions about how far the insurgency can spread.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, HRANA, documented 63 armed incidents across southeastern Iran between March 31 and October 10, with at least 94 people killed and 33 wounded, according to local and unofficial reports.
On October 7 and 8, at least five Iranian military and police personnel were killed and several others wounded in four armed attacks within 24 hours, local rights group Haalvsh reported. On October 14, a women’s Basij commander and a police officer were killed in separate attacks in Mehrastan County.
The People’s Fighters Front, known by its Persian initials JMM, has claimed responsibility for at least six attacks. Most of the incidents documented by HRANA remained unattributed or could not reliably be linked to a particular group.
JMM was formed in December 2025 through the merger of several factions, including Jaish al-Adl, a militant group that emerged around 2012 following the dismantling of Jundallah and Iran’s execution of its leader, Abdolmalek Rigi.
The United States designated Jundallah as both a Foreign Terrorist Organization and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2010, amending both designations in 2019 to include Jaish al-Adl as an alias. Iran also designates Jaish al-Adl a terrorist organization.
What is the People’s Fighters Front?
The coalition brings together Jaish al-Adl, the PADA Baluch Movement, Harakat-e Nasr Baluchistan, the Mohammad Rasulullah group and fighters described in its charter as independently organized Baluch combatants.
Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi following his arrest by Iranian authorities on February 23, 2010.
The coalition’s charter describes PADA Baluch as a cultural movement focused on Baluch identity, while other members have explicitly military or religious origins. Harakat-e Nasr, for example, says it was founded to avenge the death of a Sunni cleric.
The front says its formation followed lengthy negotiations to improve coordination and broaden a struggle previously pursued through what its charter calls traditional and rudimentary approaches.
It advocates political, diplomatic, cultural and media activity alongside what it describes as legitimate defense. Its ultimate objective, the charter says, is “deep political changes in Iran.”
Why has the fighting intensified?
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told Iran International that the merger had helped the militants step up their campaign and adopt more destructive tactics, with attacks becoming more frequent particularly in September and October.
The coalition was seeking to build a broader front against Tehran and connect its campaign to the protest movement that emerged in January, exploiting opportunities presented by protests and war, he said.
“We are seeing some more advanced tactics used,” Nadimi said.
Nadimi said the militants had not yet developed the capability to seize territory, though he believed they were moving toward that level of insurgency.
HRANA reported greater use of mines, rocket-propelled grenades and other heavier weapons, alongside the deployment of drones, artillery and armored vehicles by government forces. Attacks on patrols and military convoys were the most common incidents it recorded, followed by targeted shootings.
The region has experienced major attacks for years. Jaish al-Adl claimed a 2019 suicide bombing that killed 27 Revolutionary Guards and a December 2023 attack that killed 11 security personnel in Rask. Coordinated attacks in Rask and Chabahar followed in April 2024.
Baluch activist and journalist Khalilullah Balochi argues that the groups’ capabilities predate their merger and that earlier restraint reflected their assessment of public interests.
“The activities of these groups are not new; what is new is the intensification of attacks,” he told Iran International.
He attributes armed mobilization primarily to economic deprivation, ethnic and religious discrimination and repression, arguing that militarization has deepened the grievances driving recruitment.
The recent fighting also involves armed actors whose affiliations remain unclear.
On October 13, the Revolutionary Guards said five members of an alleged kidnapping cell and one IRGC member were killed during an operation near Zahedan. The Guards said a kidnapped engineer was rescued, without naming the armed group involved.
Separately, Haalvsh reported that more than 20 members of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, an Afghan fighting force operating under the IRGC’s Quds Force, were killed or wounded during prolonged fighting in Taftan County that day.
Can JMM build a nationwide movement?
JMM’s founding documents combine demands for Baluch rights with appeals for nationwide cooperation against Iran’s clerical rulers.
In its founding video, released alongside its charter in December 2025, masked spokesman Mahmoud Baluch appeals to communities across Iran and describes the country’s resources as captive to the system of velayat-e faqih, or rule by an Islamic jurist.
“The People’s Fighters Front wants an Iran for all Iranians,” he says. The charter identifies religious and cultural beliefs as part of the front’s identity, invoking Islamic principles and describing sacrifice for God’s approval.
A recent statement by JMM calls Iran “our dear homeland” and anticipates the “great nation of Iran” uniting against the ruling system.
The coalition describes its operations as defensive. Its charter says they aim to hold the government accountable for repression and remove obstacles to popular demands.
Political analyst Mehdi Nakhl-Ahmadi told Iran International that Jaish al-Adl’s emphasis on ethnic and religious demands and armed struggle had limited its ability to attract wider public support and cooperate with other opposition groups.
The new front’s national objectives and embrace of political, civil and media activity alongside armed struggle could reflect a strategic shift or a tactical effort to overcome those limitations and gain broader acceptance, he said.
However, he cautioned, changing its charter and political language would not necessarily translate into achieving those objectives.
The experience of Iranian Kurdish parties showed that even movements with long political histories and efforts at coalition-building faced a complex, lengthy process in building lasting cooperation and a nationwide support base, he said.
Whether JMM could broaden its reach would depend on other political groups’ willingness to engage and the front’s ability to build trust and cooperation, he said.
Fate of Baluch civilians
Nadimi expects continued counterinsurgency operations, potentially including more forces and Basij personnel, village raids and public executions. He warned that Baluch civilians would continue to face deaths and detentions, while inadequate services would compound anger toward the government.
Balochi argues that armed resistance could restrain the authorities by raising the cost of repression. He believes crackdowns have encouraged recruitment and that the government increasingly recognizes force alone cannot deter the militants.
“In fact, the most effective factor capable of restraining the Islamic Republic’s behavior is the military activities of this very group,” he said.
Are Iran’s neighbors involved?
Tehran has pressed its neighbors to curb armed groups operating along its eastern borders. Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, accused Pakistan and Afghanistan of leaving their borders unattended and urged stronger diplomatic engagement.
Balochi identifies neighboring governments’ policies as decisive, arguing that the groups could expand if countries hosting them refrain from tightening restrictions.
Iranian authorities also frequently allege foreign involvement in the violence. Tasnim attributed the October 14 killing of the women’s Basij commander to militants linked to the United States and Israel, without providing evidence.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei blamed US and Israeli plans for insecurity along Iran’s borders when asked about allegations that regional countries, including the United Arab Emirates, might be assisting armed groups.
Beyond border security, Nadimi warns that the insurgency could become intertwined with the wider war.
“If it continues to increase in intensity and geographical reach, the two could very well intertwine,” he said.
File photo by NEQSOL Holding shows the installation of the Trans-Caspian Fiber-Optic Cable across the seabed of the Caspian Sea as part of the Digital Silk Way initiative.
Investment in trade routes linking Asia and Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus is putting pressure on Iran’s ambitions to become a major transit hub, with neighboring countries developing transport and digital networks that bypass Iranian territory.
Among them is the Middle Corridor, a network of rail, road and sea links connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus while bypassing Iran.
The corridor is intended not only to connect Chinese and European markets. Countries along the route are also expanding trade among themselves, and the broader connectivity push extends beyond cargo to energy, information technology and data.
On October 15, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan inaugurated a 380-kilometer fiber-optic link across the Caspian seabed with a capacity of more than 400 terabits per second. Part of the Digital Silk Way initiative, the cable complements the Middle Corridor.
Beyond carrying data along the East-West axis, its backers say it will help attract investment in AI data centers, cloud services and high-tech industries.
In its latest report, the World Bank projects that, if the planned investments materialize, freight volumes across the Caspian could rise from 8.8 million tons in 2023 to 32.1 million tons in 2040.
The report also finds that developing the corridor could, in the long term, increase the combined GDP of host countries by about 3.3 percent, equivalent to approximately $58 billion at current levels of economic activity, and raise employment by 2.9 percent.
These gains depend on policy and operational reforms alongside construction. The World Bank identifies at least $25 billion in infrastructure investment needs through 2040, plus an estimated $30 billion for connecting infrastructure, logistics facilities and equipment.
One of the most contentious proposed links is the route through southern Armenia that would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, known in Azerbaijan as the Zangezur corridor.
Under agreements reached since August 2025, the US-backed project is being developed as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, with Armenia retaining sovereignty and jurisdiction over its territory.
Azerbaijan projects that the route could carry 15 million tons of freight annually. The section through Armenia is roughly 42 to 43 kilometers long.
After several years of fierce opposition to the proposed Zangezur corridor, Iran appears to be taking a more pragmatic approach to Armenia’s inclusion in East-West transport networks, although concerns over American involvement remain.
Iran’s ambassador in Yerevan expressed concern in September about an American presence near the border and proposed a mechanism to address Tehran’s concerns. On October 16, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said Iran had asked about the possible deployment of US military forces on Armenian territory and that Yerevan had assured Tehran this would not happen. He said he believed the Iranian side was satisfied with Armenia’s answers.
The World Bank estimates that developing the Middle Corridor could increase Armenia’s GDP by 3.4 percent, equivalent to $873 million, and raise employment by 3.9 percent in the long term. Armenia, however, is not yet a transit country on the route; the report assumes a direct rail link through the country becomes operational in the early 2030s.
Iran’s transit ambitions face growing competition
Azerbaijan and Iran have also pursued an alternative connection between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through Iranian territory, known as the Aras corridor.
That route could preserve a role for Iran in regional transit, but participation in one connecting segment would fall short of Tehran’s broader ambition to become a central hub for trade between Asia and Europe. Western sanctions also complicate efforts to attract European businesses to routes through Iran.
A comparison with Turkey, a key link between the Middle Corridor and European markets, is telling. The World Bank estimates that corridor development could increase Turkey’s GDP by more than $47 billion and employment by about 4.4 percent in the long term.
Iran also faces competition from other regional transport plans. Iraq, with participation from Qatar, the UAE and Turkey, is advancing the Development Road, intended to link the Grand Faw port to the Turkish border at an estimated cost of about $17 billion. Iraqi officials have projected annual revenues of roughly $4 billion, although the project’s returns depend on financing, completion and demand.
The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and Syria’s Four Seas initiative, linking the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, Black Sea and Caspian region, likewise reflect efforts to develop alternative networks. These projects remain at different stages of development, and their commercial success is not assured.
More than two decades after Iran, India and Russia agreed to establish the International North-South Transport Corridor, Tehran’s ambition to become a transit hub linking India with Russia and European markets remains only partly realized. Shipments have moved through Iran, but the existence of traffic alone does not demonstrate that the route has fulfilled its wider commercial promise.
Iran’s weak logistics performance adds to the challenge. In the World Bank’s 2023 Logistics Performance Index, it ranked 123rd with a score of 2.3 out of five. Geography gives Iran potential advantages, but converting them into sustained transit business requires reliable infrastructure, efficient border procedures and commercially viable international connections.
