Conflicting accounts cloud Iran-US diplomatic push

“We must strive to compel the enemy to honor what it signed,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on X Sunday, referring to the Iran-US memorandum of understanding signed in June. “This memorandum enhances the security of our country, the region and our allies.”

Trump said on Saturday that he had canceled the attack after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries requested a pause, saying the sides had agreed on the broad “perimeters” of a deal that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Iran’s nuclear threat.

The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in mediation efforts, reported that a proposal announced by Trump over the weekend calls for the US and Iran to resume negotiations and work through the remaining obstacles to a deal.

The proposal would reopen Hormuz and halt attacks across the region, including attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Persian Gulf countries and Jordan, the official said. In exchange, Washington would end its naval blockade and allow Tehran to export oil under the tentative ceasefire arrangement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations with Oman over the strait were nearing completion.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the talks were bilateral and aimed at agreeing a mechanism for the strait, adding that they did not concern any other party.

“The understanding with Oman over a new transit route has nothing to do with whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open or closed,” Baghaei said. “The strait was closed because the US reneged on its commitments and imposed a blockade.”

Push for de-escalation

Regional governments continued diplomatic outreach on Sunday. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged dialogue and de-escalation in his call with Trump, while the kings of Jordan and Bahrain discussed efforts to restore security and stability in the region.

Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister also urged implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including guarantees for freedom of navigation through Hormuz, during separate calls with the Saudi and Jordanian foreign ministers.

Military preparations nevertheless continued. Israel’s Channel 12 reported, citing senior US officials, that CENTCOM had prepared strikes against Iranian energy and infrastructure targets, with Israel expected to participate.

Qatar asked Trump for another 24 hours for negotiations, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that military action could trigger wider regional escalation and damage oil facilities in Persian Gulf states, the report said.

Channel 12 said negotiators were close to a proposed Hormuz arrangement that included renewing the ceasefire, opening the strait toll-free for 60 days, establishing new shipping routes and resuming US-Iran negotiations based on the memorandum of understanding.

War clouds linger

But not all Persian Gulf states backed the diplomatic push. The United Arab Emirates had pressed Trump to take more decisive action against Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior officials from Persian Gulf states familiar with the discussions.

The officials suggested the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would not compromise until the US escalated, took control of Hormuz and perhaps considered ground operations.

An Iranian diplomat told the newspaper that the IRGC was considering preemptive strikes even if the US did not attack, should diplomacy fail.

The Israeli military remained on high alert despite Trump's decision, assessing that Tehran could still spring surprises, Channel 12 reported.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen, who sits on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, said there was close security and intelligence coordination between Israel and the United States on developments across the region.

"With or without an agreement, and regardless of any external commitments, if Iran attempts to renew its nuclear program or advance its ballistic missile industries, we will be there. We will take action, and we will strike," Cohen added.

Iran’s acting defense minister said Tehran treated every threat from its adversaries as credible and used it to strengthen military readiness and deterrence.

In April, an American F-15 fighter jet was shot down over southwestern Iran, likely by a Chinese-made shoulder-fired missile. Both crew members ejected and were rescued, one of them after two days on the ground in the foothills of the Zagros Mountains.

The loss was historic. No American fighter had been downed by enemy fire in decades.

Iran has reportedly been sourcing these weapons from China, through schemes Washington has been watching for months.

In early May the Treasury Department put one scheme on the public record, sanctioning a network of middlemen arming the Islamic Republic with Chinese weapons, including shoulder-fired missiles. Days later, President Trump traveled to Beijing for a state visit with Xi Jinping.

In late July, he told the public that Xi had personally assured him China would not, “under any circumstances,” sell weapons to the Islamic Republic.

Five days later Reuters reported that a Chinese company had agreed to supply the Islamic Republic with 300 to 400 shoulder-fired air defense missile systems in a deal worth $60 to $70 million.

While the two leaders met and traded assurances, the Islamic Republic appears to have kept buying, likely working several supply channels at once.

The reported deal could help the Islamic Republic close a dangerous gap at exactly the wrong time for Washington. During the 12-day war in June 2025, Israeli aircraft operated over Iran almost at will after the opening strikes severely damaged the country’s air-defense network. The United States later joined the campaign with strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A shoulder-fired missile will lose most encounters with a modern fighter, but it only has to win occasionally. After the April shootdown, every pilot flying low over Iran has to assume there may be a missile team underneath him, so planners may fly higher or less often, and spend more time and aircraft clearing threats before anyone goes in.

It’s the same effect CIA-supplied Stinger missiles had during the Soviet–Afghan War after 1986, when they made low-altitude flying dangerous enough to force Soviet pilots to change their tactics.

We’ve already seen the effect of this strategy at sea, where the Islamic Republic’s missiles, mines and drones along the Strait of Hormuz have sunk few ships yet collapsed traffic and multiplied insurance costs.

These missiles reach only a few thousand meters into the sky. They cannot touch high-flying aircraft or ballistic missiles, and they will not rebuild the air defense shield the Islamic Republic lost. What they will do is make low-altitude missions—including helicopter operations and some strike and support flights—riskier and more expensive

Since the ceasefire, Basij and Revolutionary Guard units around the country have been training with shoulder-fired air-defense weapons. They also won’t all stay in Iran.

Iran has previously been accused of supplying MANPADS to allied armed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, raising the risk that some systems could leave the country. Shoulder-fired missiles have also posed a longstanding threat to civilian aviation worldwide.

China’s answer to all of this has been denial. When NBC reported that a Chinese missile likely downed the F-15, Beijing dismissed the reporting as a groundless smear. When Reuters described the new deal in July, the foreign ministry called it “completely groundless” as well.

Reuters reports that the contract runs through a company registered in Hong Kong and that the missiles are set to travel from Urumqi in western China through Pakistan into Iran. Pakistan, which brokered April’s ceasefire, denies any role.

Strategic credulity?

Trump has taken America’s adversaries at their word before. Xi told him China would not arm the Islamic Republic, and he repeated the assurance to the public as though it settled the matter.

When Volodymyr Zelensky said in late July that Russia was feeding the Islamic Republic satellite imagery to help target American bases, Trump said he would ask Putin about it. He says what he says with a purpose.

Repeating Xi’s promise keeps the relationship warm and the Washington visit on track, while his own government sanctions the middlemen and works to stop the shipments. The message serves diplomacy and the action deals with the missiles, and he sees no contradiction in running both at once.

The Islamic Republic never puts all its eggs in one basket. Washington got ahead of one channel, and we are starting to see the others. The network Treasury sanctioned in May ran through Hong Kong, Belarus and Dubai, while the reported July deal runs through a different Hong Kong company and a different route, through Pakistan.

As the reported Chinese deals advanced, Tehran also signed an agreement with Russia, as reported by the Financial Times, for roughly half a billion euros’ worth of Verba shoulder-fired missiles.

Every route runs at once, and the Islamic Republic plans on losing a few. The first Chinese shipment is said to be weeks away. It should be one that the Islamic Republic loses.

Speaking during the first televised Cabinet meeting at Camp David, Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed continued talks, military action aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and a worldwide search for assets linked to its government.

Talks continue as trust erodes

Trump said negotiations with Iran were continuing but that he was “losing faith” in Tehran because “they do lie” and “they do misrepresent.”

“They always want to talk, but they break their words so often,” he said.
Trump said Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were involved in the talks. “We have great people talking,” he added.

He said five missiles were fired at a US base in Jordan while negotiations were underway.

“Instead, I got a call from Pete that they just shot five missiles at one of our bases in Jordan,” Trump said.

Asked whether the attacks could continue, Trump said: “I think I’m going to be foolish to say no. You always have to keep your guard up.”

“They get weaker. They get a little stronger, maybe now, but they’ll get weaker, and then they peter out,” he added.

Military pressure and nuclear sites

Hegseth praised Trump for having “the courage to do Midnight Hammer and conclude the 12-day war by obliterating their nuclear sites.”

He said previous presidents had considered such action but “never pulled the trigger because of the complications, because of the challenge, and because of the risk.”

Hegseth said Trump remained committed to ensuring Iran never obtained a nuclear weapon and praised his willingness to negotiate with people who had “shown no willingness to do so honestly.”

Diplomacy under pressure

As hopes for diplomacy flicker, the United States is increasing military and economic pressure on Tehran while Trump and Hegseth continue to voice confidence in the US negotiating team.

“We have great people talking,” Trump said. “We have the best negotiators in the world,” Hegseth added.

The State Department's Rewards for Justice program announced Thursday that it was seeking information on Kimia Part Sivan Company (KIPAS), which it described as the drone-production arm of the IRGC's overseas Qods Force.

According to the statement, KIPAS has conducted unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flight tests for the IRGC-Qods Force, provided technical assistance for drones transferred to Iraq for use in IRGC operations, and procured critical UAV components from companies outside Iran.

Washington also named six senior KIPAS officials—Hasan Arambunezhad, Abolfazl Ramazanzadeh Moshkani, Mehdi Ghaffari Naghneh, Reza Nahar Dani, Abbas Sartaji and Hadi Jamshidi Zavaraki—saying they had been involved in the testing, development and supply of drones, particularly for Iranian-aligned armed groups in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.

The officials were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in April 2024 for acting on behalf of the IRGC-Qods Force, while KIPAS itself was designated in 2021 under U.S. counterterrorism authorities for providing material support to the organization.

The announcement marks the latest step in Washington's expanding "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran, which has intensified in recent weeks as the United States and Iran remain locked in a confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump administration has increasingly paired military pressure with financial measures aimed at disrupting the IRGC's access to revenue and procurement networks.

On Thursday, the United States sanctioned international networks accused of supporting Iran's Mahan Air, saying the airline facilitated logistics and procurement for the IRGC.

A day earlier, Treasury imposed sanctions on companies and tankers it accused of helping Iran profit from commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by forcing vessels to purchase IRGC-linked maritime insurance.

The Rewards for Justice statement said proceeds from Iran's sales of military equipment, including drones exported to Russia and supplied to regional armed groups, help finance the IRGC-Qods Force's activities abroad.

Washington accuses the force of supporting groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias in Iraq, allegations Tehran rejects.

Under the reward program, the United States is seeking information that would disrupt the IRGC's financial networks rather than information leading directly to arrests.

The reward of up to $15 million is among the largest routinely offered under the program for intelligence related to Iranian security organizations.

After Iran fired several ballistic missiles toward a US military base in Jordan early Wednesday Tehran time, US President Donald Trump vowed to hit back hard.

Hours later, the naval arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it had struck and detained three "offending" oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Several analysts said the combination of the Jordan strike and Tehran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz suggested Iran was no longer content to react to US pressure but was instead trying to seize the initiative and reshape the course of the confrontation.

Political analyst Ruhollah Rahimpour told Iran International the overnight missile launches and the Hormuz operation reflected a deliberate strategy of escalation.

"I think last night's missile operations in Jordan and the Strait of Hormuz are part of the Islamic Republic's strategy of escalating tensions and trying to accelerate a full-scale war with the United States and Israel, forcing them into conflict before they are fully prepared," he said.

‘Ready for broader conflict’

Despite the latest escalation, Trump insisted talks with Tehran would continue. A day earlier, he told Fox News negotiations were progressing well but warned that if no agreement was reached, Washington could strike Iran's underground facilities, bridges and power plants.

The strike also marked the first time Iran had targeted a US military installation without first coming under direct US attack, although Tehran has repeatedly argued that the continuing US maritime blockade itself constitutes an act of war.

Political analyst Shahir Shahid Saless argued Tehran appears to have concluded that maintaining the current status quo is no longer strategically sustainable while Iran remains under severe economic pressure and a maritime blockade.

According to Shahid Saless, Iranian leaders believe that if Washington's strategy is to prolong a "no war, no peace" situation indefinitely, Iran will gradually be worn down while the United States enjoys the benefits of an undeclared ceasefire.

"From Tehran's perspective, this situation must be disrupted, even if the cost is a broader conflict," he wrote.

He added that renewed attacks carry only a limited risk of triggering all-out war while serving a more important strategic objective: demonstrating to Washington that it cannot unilaterally determine when conflict begins or ends.

Hormuz complicates diplomacy

The military escalation has unfolded alongside increasingly difficult negotiations over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tuesday that Oman had proposed dividing responsibility for a new shipping lane equally between the two countries, but insisted the arrangement failed to address Iran's concerns.

Former Israeli intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz argued the latest attacks reflected what he described as a post-Khamenei doctrinal shift, with Tehran now prepared to initiate offensive operations rather than relying primarily on deterrence.

"Today Iran is also prepared to initiate offensive moves and to rely deeply on its missile array, drones and regional proxies,” Citrinowicz wrote on X.

"The leadership in Tehran is prepared to take significant risks because it sees the current confrontation as a decisive battle over its regional status and its ability to shape the security reality in the Middle East."

Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi argued Oman has little room to accommodate Tehran because of its obligations under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and pressure from Washington and regional states.

"The problem now is that the Strait of Hormuz has become an issue of prestige for both Iran and the United States, making it unlikely that either side will easily accept the other's conditions."

Regional conflict widens

Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday that it had intercepted several drones launched from Iraq towards Saudi oil facilities, blaming Iran-backed groups.

In response, Saudi and US forces jointly bombed positions held by the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq for the first time, reportedly killing numerous fighters..

The US Central Command and Saudi officials described the operation as retaliation for more than 30 drone attacks over three days targeting US forces and Saudi energy infrastructure, allegedly carried out by Iraqi groups aligned with Iran under IRGC direction.

Iran's state broadcaster IRIB quoted an unnamed military official as denying any Iranian involvement in projectiles launched from other countries towards Saudi Arabia and calling claims linking Tehran to such attacks "a major miscalculation."

Commenting on the broader trajectory of the crisis, social media commentator Tohid Javadi warned that a much larger confrontation could lie ahead.

"A major—perhaps very major—conflict may be approaching. Under the current circumstances, neither the Islamic Republic can surrender nor does Washington appear willing to reach an understanding without extensive bombing and breaking a few of Iran's bones."