Former US special envoy for Iran Rob Malley said the US-Iran memorandum is “brimming with ambiguity” and warned that the most dangerous dispute centers on Lebanon, where Israel and Tehran read the agreement in sharply different ways.
In an interview with PBS NewsHour, Malley said Israel believes it should retain freedom of military action and does not intend to withdraw from southern Lebanon, while Iran sees the deal as requiring a comprehensive ceasefire, respect for Lebanese sovereignty and an end to Israeli presence there.
“The US doesn’t really seem to know what it wants, other than to scramble repeatedly to salvage the deal,” Malley said, describing Lebanon as “the most delicate piece of the deal at this point.”
He said the ceasefire’s survival would depend on whether Washington puts enough pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu, whether Netanyahu is prepared to pay the political cost of an imposed ceasefire, and whether Iran is willing to overlook limited violations.
Malley said Persian Gulf states are more relieved by the end of the war than enthusiastic about the memorandum itself. “They are quite skeptical that this deal is going to come to fruition in terms of the greater, broader deal that’s supposed to occur in 60 days,” he said.
He argued that criticism should focus on the war rather than the memorandum needed to end it, saying the deal at least achieved two goals: ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Malley said it was “virtually impossible” for Washington and Tehran to resolve all nuclear and sanctions disputes within 60 days, predicting the sides may instead seek an extension or limited agreements. He warned that a breakdown could lead to renewed war and another closure of the Strait of Hormuz.