Markets rally on Iran deal hopes as oil and dollar retreat

Oil prices tumbled on Monday to their lowest levels in two weeks as markets increasingly bet that Washington and Tehran may be moving closer to a diplomatic breakthrough despite continuing disagreements over key issues.

Brent crude futures fell $4.71, or 4.55%, to $98.83 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped $4.57, or 4.73%, to $92.03 a barrel.

The sharp decline reflected growing optimism that a deal could eventually ease tensions threatening energy supplies from the Middle East.

Iran’s supreme leader is operating from a highly restricted and undisclosed location with limited communication channels, creating delays in ongoing negotiations with the United States, CBS News reported on Sunday citing American officials familiar with the matter.

According to the report, Mojtaba Khamenei is being reached through what officials described as a “labyrinth of couriers,” making it difficult even for Iranian officials involved in diplomacy with the Trump administration to communicate efficiently within their own system.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment on intelligence concerning Khamenei’s whereabouts or internal Iranian communication methods, CBS said.

Despite the reported difficulties, a senior Trump administration official told the network that Khamenei has agreed to the broad contours of the current draft deal.

The United States sharply criticized countries it said downplayed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program after the 2026 review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ended without consensus on a final document.

In a statement issued after the conference concluded, the State Department said it deeply regretted the failure of NPT member states to reach agreement, arguing that divisions over Iran were central to the deadlock.

Washington specifically criticized what it described as “the inability of some NPT States Parties to take Iran’s threat to global nonproliferation seriously.”

The statement pointed to Iran’s continued disputes with the International Atomic Energy Agency and what the United States called “escalating nuclear activities for which there is no credible civilian justification.”

Iran remains deeply distrustful of the United States despite ongoing indirect diplomacy through Pakistani mediators, according to a source cited by the Revolutionary Guards-linked Tasnim news agency.

The source said the Islamic Republic has “no optimism whatsoever” toward Washington and described current message exchanges with the United States as being conducted with deep pessimism toward the American government.

According to the report, no final understanding has yet been reached and disagreements continue over several provisions under discussion.

In a detailed statement published Sunday, the judiciary said some defendants were convicted of “corruption on earth,” a capital offense often used in politically sensitive security cases, while others received prison terms and additional punishments.

The statement did not specify how many people received death sentences or identify them, but IRGC-linked Tasnim News cited Tehran's Revolutionary Court as saying four of the nine defendants had been sentenced to death.

The case stems from the death of Arman Aliverdi, a 21-year-old Basij member and seminary student who was fatally injured during clashes in Tehran’s Ekbatan neighborhood in October 2022, at the height of the nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody.

The Ekbatan proceedings became one of the most closely watched legal cases arising from the 2022 protests, which evolved into the Islamic Republic’s biggest challenge in years and spread across dozens of cities under the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom.”

The judiciary said forensic examinations, medical reviews, video evidence and investigative findings established that Aliverdi died from severe head trauma caused by a hard object, but investigators were unable to determine which individual inflicted the fatal injury because of what officials described as chaotic conditions and the large number of people present at the scene.

A criminal court consequently refrained from issuing qisas, or retributive execution sentences, ruling that while some defendants had participated in assaulting Aliverdi, responsibility for the fatal strike could not be conclusively assigned.

Three defendants were sentenced to prison and ordered to pay financial compensation, while three others were acquitted of direct involvement in the killing.

Separate proceedings in a Revolutionary Court addressed broader security-related accusations including acting against national security, propaganda against the state and “corruption on earth.”

It was in that branch of the case that death sentences were issued, according to the judiciary.

Rights groups and lawyers have repeatedly raised concerns about due process in protest-related prosecutions, including allegations of coerced confessions and heavy reliance on national security charges.

Iran has sharply increased executions over the past year, according to rights organizations, with activists warning that authorities are increasingly using capital punishment not only in criminal cases but also as a tool of deterrence.

The judiciary said all verdicts in the Ekbatan case remain subject to review by Iran’s Supreme Court.