Earthquakes and storm revive Tehran’s fears of 'the big one'

The seismic activity began with a mild 3.4-magnitude tremor before intensifying into a 4.6-magnitude earthquake later in the night. Several aftershocks continued into early Wednesday morning.

At the same time, a storm swept through Tehran, bringing severe dust, power outages and fallen trees. At least seven people were reportedly injured in the storm, though authorities said the earthquakes themselves caused no casualties or major damage.

Still, the tremors revived a long-standing fear in Tehran: the possibility of a devastating earthquake along the active fault lines beneath eastern Tehran and surrounding towns.

The big one may be overdue

ILNA quoted earthquake expert Fariborz Nateghi Elahi criticizing the lack of serious crisis planning for the major quake scientists have long warned about.

“We know an earthquake will happen,” he said. “Not on this scale, but something much, much larger.”

Eastern Tehran and nearby towns sit atop an active fault stretching at least 200 kilometers and capable of generating earthquakes above magnitude 7. Geologists say the fault typically produces a major earthquake roughly once every century.

Nearly 200 years have passed since the last truly destructive event. In 1830, a massive earthquake estimated at magnitude 7.1 devastated Tehran, then a relatively young capital.

Scientists now warn that pressure accumulated underground since then has left the fault in a critical state, primed for a major release of energy.

In December 2017, a 3.5-magnitude tremor caused widespread panic, sending residents into the streets and forcing many families to sleep in their cars overnight. This time, despite the stronger quake, the public reaction appeared noticeably more subdued.

Crisis fatigue

Some residents still spent the night in parks, streets or inside their vehicles, but many on social media said the trauma of recent air and missile attacks during two wars had numbed their reactions.

One psychologist writing on X suggested the muted response could be explained by “crisis fatigue.”

A social media user wrote: “The 2017 earthquake made Tehran residents sleep in their cars until morning. Streets were completely gridlocked, and gas stations were packed. Its magnitude? 3.5. Now our reaction is: ‘Oh, it’s just an earthquake,’ and we pull the blanket over our heads and go back to sleep. I think only a nuclear bomb could still move people in this country.”

Another user described how the storm initially triggered fears of renewed military attacks: “The storm started, windows were shaking, and I thought: ‘Is it fighter jets?’”

She said she then checked the news and realized it was just a storm, which briefly calmed her. “Then the earthquake came, and I thought: well, that’s nothing. Compared to war, everything feels like a joke.”