That is the central challenge now facing Washington and its allies: how to end the conflict without giving the Islamic Republic time to absorb the blow, preserve the Revolutionary Guards’ grip on power and survive through another diplomatic compromise.
The war must conclude in a way that empowers the Iranian people, with support from outside players, namely the United States and Israel, and leaves them fully prepared to overthrow the IRGC-controlled regime. Any settlement or deal that ensures the Islamic Republic's survival would amount to a strategic defeat for the US and Israel.
In reality, the remnants of the regime still possess enough offensive capability to threaten the region and beyond. The US and Israel can use the most powerful and lethal force available against the Islamic Republic— the Iranian people — to eliminate the remaining threats once and for all.
To be sure, the people of Iran now face a fragmented leadership marked by serious rifts among political factions. The country’s economy is in ruins. The theocracy has sustained deep wounds and is effectively bleeding as a result of the elimination of top military commanders and political leaders.
The Islamic Republic is reportedly losing between $450 million and $500 million per day due to the US blockade of Hormuz. However, there is no guarantee that such economic losses will lead to its immediate collapse or overthrow. It may well resort to further violence and terrorist activity abroad.
Overall, the Islamic Republic is down, but it is not out. Sadly, more innocent people have been executed since an uneasy ceasefire took hold in mid-April.
This is simply because the core nucleus of power — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — remains functional. It has effectively engineered a silent coup under the cover of war, sidelining other contenders such as Ghalibaf, with whom Trump is reportedly seeking a possible framework to end the conflict.
The Trump administration and European powers should be mindful that no so-called reformist figure like Mikhail Gorbachev will emerge from within the Islamic Republic. From this regime, only terrorists emerge, wearing a mask of diplomatic civility.
Israel, whether one agrees with it or not, has a strong understanding of Tehran's modus operandi, largely because it has developed extensive expertise in countering terrorist networks, many of which are supported or enabled by the radicals in Tehran.
In this view, the world should recognize that the disintegration of the IRGC cannot be achieved through negotiation or a maritime blockade alone. Such an outcome requires a hybrid strategy centered on maximum economic pressure, sustained military pressure and the empowerment of the Iranian people to topple the clerical rule.
If decision-makers in Tehran conclude that the United States ultimately wants to avoid continued conflict, they may be incentivized to prolong the confrontation in a more attritional form, using stalling tactics and deception to buy time. In parallel, they could gradually escalate tensions below the threshold of an all-out war in an effort to extract concessions, particularly if they believe the US is seeking to end the conflict without committing to regime change.
The key, therefore, is to deprive the Islamic Republic of the notion that Trump seeks an off-ramp in this war and instead shift toward sustained pressure so that the IRGC faces only two options: total surrender or regime change.
I argue that the IRGC will not fully acquiesce to US conditions. Instead, it may accept certain demands while rejecting others in order to prolong the conflict and extend the diplomatic process.
The best way to neutralize the threats posed by the IRGC regime in Tehran is to take the following considerations into account:
- Expand pressure on the Islamic Republic's third tier of current and former leaders, including figures such as Ghalibaf, Rouhani, Zarif and Khatami.
- Seize Iran’s buried uranium stockpile before it is too late.
- Maintain the maritime blockade and expand it to other areas, including the Indo-Pacific, with the aim of cutting off Tehran's financial lifeline.
- Provide Israel with greater latitude for targeted operations against IRGC and Basij commanders and lower-level security forces.
- Directly enable people inside Iran through intelligence assets and logistical support so they can seize the Islamic Republic’s strategic institutions themselves.
- Engage with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi in a manner reminiscent of Reagan’s outreach to Sakharov, fostering dialogue with the most consequential Iranian opposition leader, backed by a vast number of people inside Iran.
In sum, the conflict involving the US and the IRGC should be resolved in a way that fundamentally weakens the current regime and increases the agency of the Iranian population.
Any negotiated settlement that allows the Islamic Republic to remain intact would be a strategic setback for the United States and Israel. The US and Israel have the people of Iran as the most powerful force against the regime in Tehran.
