Trump and Tehran are betting on who breaks first, NYT columnist says

The Iran war shows how smaller powers can still disrupt much stronger militaries and economies through cheap drones, cyber tools and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman argued in an opinion piece.

Friedman wrote that President Donald Trump is betting the US blockade of Iranian oil exports will force Tehran to negotiate on Washington’s terms, while Iran is betting that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and higher energy prices will eventually force Trump to retreat.

The columnist argued that the larger lesson is not only about Iran, but about the changing nature of power. He said the war has shown how asymmetric warfare has evolved, allowing states and armed groups to use relatively cheap tools to create major disruption.

Friedman cited Iran’s use of low-cost drones to strike Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, saying the attacks caused far larger economic and service disruption than the price of the weapons would suggest. He also compared Iran’s tactics to Ukraine’s drone attacks inside Russia and Hamas’s use of improvised rockets against Israel.

He said the next stage could be even more dangerous as artificial intelligence gives smaller states, militant groups and hackers access to far more powerful tools. Friedman warned that AI agents could make cyberattacks cheaper, faster and more autonomous, giving actors that once had few options new ways to threaten advanced societies.

The argument, he wrote, is that Trump may be misreading the conflict if he assumes Iran has “no cards.” In Friedman’s view, the war is a preview of a world where even weakened states can use drones, cyber capabilities, infrastructure attacks and AI to create what one expert called “mass disruption.”