Explosions over Damascus caused by Israeli interceptions — Syrian TV

Multiple explosions were reported across several Iranian cities on Friday including Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Shiraz, Zanjan, Kermanshah and Bushehr, according to Iranian media and citizen journalists.

In Tehran, loud blasts were heard in numerous neighborhoods, including Darabad, Pasdaran, areas near Elm-o-Sanat University, around Mehrabad Airport, Shadabad, Shahrak-e Gharb, Saadat Abad, Punak, Nararmak and Chitgar. Local reports said at least five powerful explosions occurred in the Heravi district, with power outages affecting some residential areas.

Additional explosions were reported near Lavizan’s Shian Park, while in neighboring Alborz province, blasts were heard in Hashtgerd, Garmdareh and Qods City. Reports also indicated heavy bombardment sounds in Isfahan.

The United States could soon position more than 17,000 ground troops in and around the Middle East in a major military escalation linked to the ongoing conflict with Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal.

If approved by President Donald Trump, the deployment would add around 10,000 additional soldiers to forces already active in the region, signaling a possible shift toward expanded ground operations against Iranian targets.

President Donald Trump said on Friday that US operations have effectively destroyed Iran’s air force, naval capabilities, and command structure, leaving the country “leaderless” and its military largely inoperable.

“Now they’re 100% dead. They have 22 mine droppers. The mine droppers, 22, all 22 are gone. So I guess they can drop mines, but they’re gonna have to take them out by a rowboat, ’cause they don’t have any boats. Their air force is dead, totally, completely dead. It’s out of business, no planes left at all. Their anti‑aircraft and communications capabilities are totally dismantled and dead. Their leaders are all dead. Other than that, I think they’re doing quite well," Trump said.

“No, their leaders are dead. Their supreme leader is no longer supreme. He’s dead. His son is either dead or in very bad shape, ’cause nobody’s heard from him. I think he says, ‘Just keep me out of this.’ This is the only country where nobody wants to lead. There’s nobody who would like to lead Iran. ‘Please raise your hand,’ a big audience, to say, ‘Who would like to be our leader? Dead salary.’ Nobody wants to," Trump added.

American forces are targeting Iran’s weapons stockpiles, missile and drone production sites, and naval assets at an unprecedented scale, Trump said on Friday in Miami.

“We’re crushing Iran’s weapons stockpiles, destroying their missiles and drone factories at levels nobody ever thought was possible. And turning the defense industrial base into nothing, Iran’s navy is gone," Trump added.

"It’s all sunk at the bottom of the Gulf and elsewhere, did you see the attack submarine that we have going after one of their boats? It was called the Suleimani. It was the pride of their fleet, but this attack submarine goes like 60 miles an hour, they say. I never saw anything, and it caught them in about two minutes. And that was the end of the Suleimani," he said.

In response to Operation Epic Fury, Tehran turned to asymmetric leverage, relying on its capacity to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and drive up global oil prices.

Anticipating market volatility, the US Treasury issued a targeted sanctions waiver designed to stabilize oil markets while preserving financial pressure on Tehran.

Yet as the waiver framework evolved from an India-specific mechanism into a more generalized policy, it continued in practice to serve Indian refiners, redirecting sanctioned crude away from China and toward India.

The Russian test case

On March 5, Treasury issued a waiver allowing Indian refiners — IOC, BPCL, HPCL, and Reliance Industries — to purchase already-produced Russian crude cargoes that were on the water.

When Treasury expanded the waiver on March 12–13, Indian refiners remained the only significant buyers of the authorized Russian barrels. The expansion continued to apply only to cargoes already on the water, did not restore formal banking channels, and did not lift underlying sanctions.

Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury official, described General License U as authorizing “the commodity transaction; it says nothing about payment.” The license permits the sale of oil but does not restore banking access or create a formal payment channel. That distinction allowed trade in physical barrels while preserving financial pressure.

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  India tells US it needs Iran, Venezuela crude to offset Russian cuts

The Iranian extension

The March 20 application of the same waiver model to roughly 170 million barrels of Iranian crude floating offshore replicated the policy — and once again, India remained the only swing buyer.

Reliance Industries, the largest Indian public company, purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude at a $7 premium to Brent. The same Indian refiners, IOC, BPCL, and HPCL, reportedly plan to resume purchases.

Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said Iranian crude often remains unsold until reaching Asian discharge zones such as Singapore or Malaysia. Because many cargoes were already produced but waiting for buyers, releasing them under the waiver had immediate supply effects. He added: “Now that India has entered as a competitor, the price in China will most likely increase.”

In effect, India’s participation disrupted China’s near-monopsony over sanctioned Iranian crude — reshaping pricing leverage without formally lifting sanctions.

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  Iran still depends on Hormuz despite years of workarounds

Before 2019, Indian refiners imported roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude under contracts with National Iranian Oil Company. They retain the technical configuration and commercial familiarity to scale quickly within short waiver windows. That institutional memory gives Washington a ready-made alternative buyer base whenever it chooses to recalibrate supply pressure.

India’s strategic ascent

India’s admission into the Pax Silica, formalized on February 20, placed it within the US-led supply-chain initiative focused on reducing dependence on China in semiconductor and AI production. As Under Secretary Jacob Helberg said: "Pax Silica is really not about China, it is about America. We want to secure our supply chains. We view India as a partner to help de-risk and diversify those supply chains."

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel on February 25–26, where the two countries elevated ties to a “special strategic partnership.” Two days later, Operation Epic Fury began.

The new world order

Early in President Trump’s second term, Washington sought to reshape the global order. India was expected to become a counterweight to China, and Iran was given a chance for realignment. Neither objective materialized at the outset. India’s role remained limited, negotiations with Iran collapsed, and a 12-day war followed. Trade and tariff disputes further complicated the restructuring effort.

Washington’s tactical support of India’s energy role may carry implications beyond temporary oil supply management. Pax Silica realigns industrial supply chains; the waiver framework redirects sanctioned energy flows. Together, they position India within the technological and commodity axes of great-power competition.

This suggests a second, more structured attempt to reshape the global order. With India onboard, the decisive variable becomes whether Operation Epic Fury generates sufficient leverage to push Iran away from its long-standing partnerships with Beijing and Moscow. A realignment toward Washington could be the tipping point in the consolidation of this new order.