Trump says regime change in Iran will happen but not ‘immediately’

Speaking on Fox News Radio's The Brian Kilmeade Show, Trump said security forces loyal to the Islamic Republic routinely shoot demonstrators in the streets, making it difficult for unarmed civilians to challenge the regime despite growing pressure from the ongoing conflict.

“They literally have people in the streets with machine guns, machine-gunning people down if they want to protest,” Trump said, referring to Iran’s security forces. “That’s a pretty big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons.”

Trump said that while change inside Iran will eventually happen, it is unlikely to occur quickly under such conditions.

“It’ll happen,” he said, “but it probably will be — maybe not immediately.”

The US president made the remarks while discussing the internal situation in Iran amid the escalating war between Iran, Israel and the United States. Trump argued that the regime maintains control largely through force, describing the security forces as an “evil group of people” who shoot protesters “right through the head.”

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warned on Thursday that opponents could face a blow “even stronger than January 8,” signaling the possibility of a renewed and harsher crackdown if street protests resume.

More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during a two-day crackdown on nationwide protests on January 8–9.

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  IRGC threatens harsher crackdown if protests return

Trump said the presence of armed units on the streets makes it extremely difficult for ordinary Iranians to take action against the government.

“You’re talking about people that go out shooting protesters,” he said. “So when someone says go out and protest, that’s a pretty high standard.”

The comments came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the current conflict will create conditions for political change inside Iran.

Trump said continued military pressure on Iran's regime could weaken the authorities over time.

“They’re going to be in worse shape as time goes by,” Trump said, adding that US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran’s military capabilities.

As has been widely reported, Russia has provided limited direct assistance to the Islamic Republic against its attackers, despite Tehran’s extensive military support to Moscow since 2021.

This contrasts with how Tehran supplied large quantities of armed drones and ballistic missiles to Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Some see the ongoing war as yet another example of Putin doing little to help longstanding allies, as occurred with the downfall of long-time Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad, the American abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and Russia’s lack of help to Tehran last year during the 12-Day War.

Moscow, though, has provided some help to Iran in this war. Russia has long supplied Tehran with surveillance and repression technologies used to prevent domestic unrest. This support may have contributed to the Islamic Republic’s ability to survive the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many other top leaders—at least so far.

Moscow has also reportedly provided Tehran with intelligence support for Iranian drone attacks against targets including US troops in Iran’s Persian Gulf neighbours, Israel, Turkey, Azerbaijan and elsewhere. T

hese attacks may have been undertaken in hopes of giving some of America’s Middle East partners an incentive to press Washington and Israel to halt strikes on Iran so Tehran would stop targeting them.

Putin may also see enabling Iranian drone attacks against US military targets in the region as payback for earlier US support to Ukraine for its drone strikes against Russian military targets both in occupied Ukraine and Russia itself. Putin’s desire for retribution on this score should not be underestimated.

Yet as gratifying as this may be to Putin, it has also created a problem for Russia that he may not have anticipated. Ukraine has offered to share its considerable experience in defending against drone attacks with countries now receiving them from Iran—an offer many have welcomed.

Perhaps this helps explain why Moscow has denied sharing intelligence with Tehran. But regardless of Russia’s role, the attacks themselves have given targeted states reason to value Ukraine and its survival more highly than before—something that is not in Russia’s interests.

This points to a larger tension: while Moscow and Tehran are both strongly anti-American, their interests are not fully aligned. While Tehran may view all countries cooperating with the United States or Israel as adversaries, Moscow has long sought pragmatic relations with many of them and tried to split some from Washington on key issues.

This approach paid off in the willingness of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and even Israel not to enforce Western sanctions against Russia. The longer Iranian attacks continue, however, the less willing these states may be to cooperate with Moscow if they believe it is complicit or unwilling to restrain Tehran.

At the same time, Moscow may appear less useful to Iran’s post-Ali Khamenei leadership if Putin cannot pressure or persuade Donald Trump to end his war against Iran.

Putin also seeks to preserve as much of Trump’s sympathy as possible regarding Ukraine. He would not want to provoke renewed large-scale US military support for Kyiv by appearing to obstruct Washington’s campaign against Tehran.

To some extent, the US-Israeli war on Iran has benefited Putin by diverting Western attention from Ukraine. Hostile Iranian actions that reduce Persian Gulf energy flows and push global oil and gas prices higher also benefit petroleum-exporting Russia.

Moscow has also gained from Trump’s reduced pressure on India over purchases of Russian oil, helping stabilize global supply and prevent prices from rising even further.

The longer the war continues, however, the more it risks imposing greater costs than benefits for Moscow. Prolonged conflict could deepen Middle Eastern reliance on Ukraine against Iranian drone attacks, strain Russia’s relations with regional states wary of Tehran, and further weaken the Islamic Republic, making it less useful to Russia.

For Putin, the war’s advantages are real—but they are likely to diminish the longer it lasts.

The Israeli military said on Friday it assesses that between 4,000 and 5,000 Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes since the war began nearly two weeks ago.

According to the military, many of those killed were members of Iran’s internal security forces and the Basij paramilitary, which have been a major focus of Israeli attacks.

The Israeli military said the campaign aims to deal a major blow to the Iranian regime, its armed forces, weapons production industries and nuclear program.

Since the start of the conflict, the Israeli Air Force has dropped more than 10,000 bombs across Iran, the military said.

In total, over 7,600 separate strikes have been carried out, including around 2,000 targeting what the military described as “headquarters and assets of the Iranian terror regime” and about 4,700 strikes against Iran’s missile program.

Canada’s government is facing criticism after failing to disclose a reported Iranian missile strike near an airbase in Kuwait where Canadian troops are stationed.

Conservative defense critic James Bezan said Ottawa’s silence about the March 1 strike near Ali Al-Salem Air Base was “really shameful.”

“This is a failure of the government of not wanting to communicate, not being transparent, and not sharing with Canadians exactly how Canada is impacted by this war,” Bezan said.

Canada’s defense department said it does not discuss damage assessments for operational security reasons, but added that all Canadian Armed Forces personnel in the region are “currently safe and accounted for.”

All six crew members aboard a US KC-135 refueling aircraft that went down in western Iraq have been confirmed dead, US Central Command said on Friday.

The aircraft was lost on March 12 while flying over friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, CENTCOM said in a statement.

Officials said the circumstances of the incident remain under investigation but that the crash was not caused by hostile or friendly fire.

The identities of the service members will be released after their families have been notified, the statement said.