Hardline cleric Alireza Arafi is now one of the three members of the interim leadership council tasked with filling the power vacuum after Khamenei’s demise. Within clerical circles he is widely viewed as a potential contender for the country’s highest office. Outside them, most Iranians have barely heard his name.
Many Iranian journalists and political activists abroad assume Arafi will eventually emerge as Khamenei’s successor. Yet Iran’s opaque succession process offers no guarantees.
To become Supreme Leader, Arafi would first have to be nominated by a committee within the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for choosing the next leader, in a session attended by at least two-thirds of its 88 members. He would then need the support of two-thirds of those present — roughly 40 elderly clerics. None of this is assured.
There is also no certainty that the Islamic Republic will survive long enough to appoint a new Supreme Leader, nor that Arafi, or other potential contenders such as Hassan Khomeini, will emerge unscathed from the current turmoil.
On Sunday night, online rumors even claimed that Arafi had been targeted and killed.
A Khamenei Protégé
Over the past two decades, Arafi has been one of Khamenei’s favored clerics. The Supreme Leader elevated him to senior religious positions, granted him access to substantial financial resources and helped him climb the institutional ladder that led to political influence.
Yet within the interim leadership council he has the least political experience.
President Massoud Pezeshkian, despite his limited political background, has greater public visibility. Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, a former intelligence minister, is the only seasoned political figure in the trio, though he rarely speaks publicly about politics.
Arafi’s only clear advantage is that, unlike the other two, he has not been publicly associated with the violent crackdown ordered by Khamenei during the January protests.
Arafi’s influence stems largely from his leadership of Al-Mustafa International University, his position as dean of the Qom seminary and his membership in the Assembly of Experts — all roles granted or supported by Khamenei.
The Supreme Leader praised him for his ideas on expanding Shiite influence abroad.
Despite lacking political experience, Arafi is known for unwavering loyalty to Khamenei and his ideological outlook. He is considered more hardline than the late leader on cultural issues such as compulsory hijab and has advocated the full implementation of Shiite jurisprudence in governance.
Arafi’s Background
Born in 1959 into a clerical family in Maybod near Yazd in central Iran, Arafi’s ascent began in 2002 when Khamenei approved his proposal for an international university to train Shiite clerics worldwide.
He was soon appointed dean of the institution and granted a substantial budget, a recurring point of criticism among economists and journalists during annual budget debates.
Al-Mustafa now operates more than 80 branches abroad and teaches more than 14,000 students online and in person, placing Arafi at the center of a global clerical network.
Under Khamenei, Arafi also served on the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, as one of the 12 jurists of the Guardian Council and as a key member of the Assembly of Experts — the very body tasked with choosing the next Supreme Leader, if the Islamic Republic endures.
The country is passing through one of the most volatile periods in its modern history, raising doubts not only about who might succeed Khamenei but about whether the Islamic Republic will survive long enough for that question to be answered.
Even for figures now described as potential successors, the title “future leader” may prove more fragile than it appears.
