The prime-time speech offers Trump his most prominent platform yet to signal whether he is still betting on diplomacy in the days ahead, or preparing the public for strikes if talks fail.
While advisers have urged him to focus on affordability, immigration and the economy ahead of November’s midterm elections, the buildup toward a potential confrontation with Iran has overshadowed the run-up to the address.
A speech overshadowed by Iran
Reuters columnist Patricia Zengerle reported that the State of the Union may be Trump’s best opportunity to persuade skeptical voters to rally behind threatened strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities if no agreement is reached. The article added that the run-up to the speech has been dominated by a significant US military buildup in the region and preparations for a conflict that could last weeks.
Trump on Monday brushed aside reports of internal dissent about military action, writing on social media: “I am the one that makes the decision… if we don’t make a deal, it will be a very bad day for that country.”
Democrats have sharply criticized his approach. Senator Tim Kaine said Trump was “bumbling his way toward war,” arguing he had scrapped a 2015 nuclear agreement that had constrained Iran’s program.
‘Will he tip his hand on Iran?’
Bloomberg’s Courtney Subramanian framed Iran as one of the major flashpoints Trump may address as he tries to reset the national mood after a Supreme Court ruling struck down his global tariff regime.
The speech, Bloomberg wrote, could provide a moment for Trump to explain why military action might be necessary, even as negotiations led by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner continue in Geneva.
Bloomberg also emphasized the political risk: voters uneasy with tariff turmoil and aggressive immigration tactics may be wary of another foreign conflict.
The Hill similarly described Iran as a foreign-policy dilemma Trump may not be able to ignore, with questions looming about whether he will order strikes in the coming days. The outlet pointed to falling approval ratings and polling that shows voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, even as the military posture toward Iran intensifies.
The Associated Press, in a preview by Aamer Madhani, wrote that the address gives Trump a chance to make the case directly to Americans for his foreign policy, including possible action against Iran.
AP cited polling from AP-NORC showing 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of foreign policy and 56% believe he has gone too far in using the US military abroad.
France 24 reported that two White House officials said Trump will discuss his plans for Iran, though they did not offer details, describing the speech as a potential moment to mount a public case for intervention.
The outlet added that Trump appears to be inching closer to conflict while also touting his peacemaking credentials and creation of a “Board of Peace.”
The Guardian cast the potential Iran strikes as a stark test of Trump’s “America First” promise to avoid “forever wars,” reporting that the president is even said to be contemplating a broader campaign that could amount to regime change – a comparison that evokes the 2003 Iraq invasion he has previously criticized.
The BBC, in a broader preview, listed “America’s relationship with Iran” among the foreign-policy issues likely to surface, alongside Ukraine and Venezuela, though it noted domestic topics may dominate.
Iran in past State of the Unions
References to Iran in State of the Union speeches have typically surfaced at inflection points – the hostage crisis, regional conflict and terrorism, nuclear negotiations, or moments when presidents sought public backing for a tougher coercive strategy.
In the Cold War alliance era, Iran appeared mainly as a country whose stability and relationships mattered to Western cohesion.
President Dwight Eisenhower’s 1955 State of the Union message cited “Britain and Iran” among nations that had “resolved dangerous differences,” framing Tehran in terms of security and diplomacy rather than direct confrontation with Washington.
After the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis, Iran became the crisis itself.
Jimmy Carter’s 1980 address opened by saying that 50 Americans were still being held in Iran, calling the episode “terrorism and anarchy” and warning that if the hostages were harmed, “a severe price will be paid.”
After 9/11, Iran references shifted into the terror-and-WMD architecture of US strategy, placing Tehran within a broader post-attack security doctrine.
In 2002, George W. Bush labeled Iran part of the “axis of evil,” saying it “aggressively pursues” weapons of mass destruction and “exports terror,” a line widely remembered as a defining rhetorical escalation of the era.
In 2003, Bush again singled out Iran as a “threat requiring different strategies,” describing a government that “represses its people, pursues weapons of mass destruction, and supports terror,” while also noting that Iranians “speak out for liberty.”
President Barack Obama repeatedly used the address to press for diplomatic compromise while stressing that the United States would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
In 2014, Obama said diplomacy had halted the advance of Iran’s nuclear program, warned he would veto sanctions that could derail negotiations, and argued war should be a “last resort.”
In 2015 and 2016, he defended the nuclear agreement reached with Tehran, saying in 2016 that the deal had rolled back Iran’s program and that “the world has avoided another war.”
During his first term, Trump invoked Iran to justify withdrawing from the 2015 deal and imposing sweeping sanctions under his “maximum pressure” campaign, portraying Tehran as a central destabilizing force in the Middle East.
In 2018, he said the United States stood with “the people of Iran” against a “corrupt dictatorship” and urged Congress to address what he called “the terrible Iran nuclear deal.”
In 2019, he called Iran the “world’s leading state sponsor of terror.” In 2020, he tied Iran to counterterrorism and deterrence, citing the killing of former IRGC-Quds commander Qasem Soleimani and saying the “Iranian regime must abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons” and stop spreading terror.
The pattern is consistent: presidents have used the nationally televised address to reset Iran policy at decisive moments – to sell diplomacy, justify confrontation, or redefine strategy.
Tuesday’s speech fits that same historical frame.