Iran International
A sharp increase in US military deployments to the Middle East has intensified uncertainty in Tehran, where analysts and officials are debating whether the buildup signals imminent conflict or a bid to gain leverage in nuclear negotiations.
Multiple US outlets reported on Thursday that national security officials have informed President Donald Trump that the military has positioned the necessary air and naval assets in the region to carry out a strike “within days,” potentially even by the end of this week.
In Tehran, some analysts cautioned that the military moves could signal genuine escalation rather than routine pressure.
Political analyst Mohammad Soltaninejad told Entekhab: “If the negotiations fail or the US position changes—as happened before the 12-day war and in the middle of negotiations—it is possible that war could break out.”
Jalal Sadatian, a former Iranian ambassador to the United Kingdom, said in an interview with ILNA that war remains an unattractive option for regional states, particularly given the risk of US bases in those countries being targeted.
“The balance is still tilted somewhat more toward negotiation than toward war,” he said, arguing that Trump appears to be “more focused on threats and exercising pressure.”
‘Real’ prospect of war
The military buildup follows the second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which ended Tuesday in Geneva without tangible results. Cautious optimism expressed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has not translated into broad confidence in Tehran.
Financial markets have reacted nervously. Iran’s currency weakened nearly one percent in a single day, with the dollar rising toward 1,630,000 rials, reflecting broader concerns about the risk of escalation.
Prominent economic outlet Eco Iran ran an editorial on Thursday titled Diplomacy Under the Shadow of Military Movements, arguing that US deployments are not merely a show of power but “a sign of maintaining operational readiness in case tensions escalate.”
International relations professor Gholamreza Haddad told Eco Iran that talks proceeding to a third round is not necessarily a positive sign. He said the scale of US deployments suggests “real preparedness for military conflict,” rather than merely a threat intended to extract concessions from Tehran.
Agreement ‘a miracle’
Nour News, a site close to senior security official Ali Shamkhani, went further, suggesting that Washington might opt for a limited, symbolic action to demonstrate readiness without entering full-scale war.
“This scenario would symbolically test Iran’s deterrence and demonstrate America’s power,” the editorial said, warning that “the scene stands on the brink of crisis.”
Iran has also demonstrated heightened military activity. Over the past two days, it has conducted exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and a notice to airmen (NOTAM) was issued for a missile test in southern Iran scheduled for Thursday.
US affairs analyst Amir Abolfath delivered one of the more pointed warnings, calling a potential agreement “a miracle” and cautioning that sustaining any deal may prove even more difficult than reaching one.
“We may end up in war,” he told moderate outlet Khabar Online. “And even in the event of war, the problem may not be resolved.”
The imagery shows a new facility at the Parchin military complex covered with a concrete shield and soil, while tunnel entrances at the Isfahan nuclear site have been backfilled.
Tunnel access at Natanz and missile bases damaged during last June’s 12‑day conflict with Israel have also been strengthened.
The reconstruction appears designed to address weaknesses exposed during the brief war, when Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure and Tehran responded with missiles and drones.
The United States held five rounds of negotiations with Iran over its disputed nuclear program last year, for which Trump set a 60-day deadline.
When no agreement was reached by the 61st day on June 13, Israel launched a surprise military offensive, followed by US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
The fortification work comes as indirect nuclear talks in Geneva remain unresolved. Iran is preparing a written proposal to address US concerns, while Washington has reinforced its regional military posture, including carrier strike groups and additional naval assets, amid concerns that diplomacy could stall.
The Reuters report said the combination of hardened facilities, ongoing military readiness, and persistent diplomatic negotiations reflects Tehran’s dual strategy of safeguarding strategic infrastructure while keeping open the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
The United States has long insisted that Iran must completely halt its uranium enrichment program, stop supporting its armed allies in the Middle East and accept restrictions on its ballistic missile program.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Monday the United States will never succeed in toppling the Islamic Republic and warned that even the world’s strongest military can suffer crippling blows.
