Iran International
Tehran appears to have taken the US military buildup near Iran seriously, but shows no sign of softening its rhetoric or accepting Washington’s terms while it explores limited diplomatic channels.
Speaking in Istanbul on Friday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would consider US proposals for negotiations only if the military threat was removed first. Araghchi was in the Turkish city to explore a possible mediation initiative, though he made clear that Tehran would not negotiate under pressure.
Hours later, US President Donald Trump said he had directly communicated a deadline to Iran for reaching an agreement with Washington. “Only they know about the deadline for sure,” Trump told reporters, without elaborating on the terms or consequences.
The exchange reflects a familiar standoff: Washington is attempting to force rapid movement at a moment when Iran is politically and economically weakened, while Tehran is signaling defiance even as it quietly probes diplomatic off-ramps.
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of parliament’s Foreign Policy Committee, said on Thursday that internal debates were under way in Tehran over how far Trump might go.
“Trump’s confrontation with Iran during his first term was a failure,” he told news website Didban Iran, setting out his assessment that the US president’s long-term aim was to end the Islamic Republic.
“He knows there is no third term, and this is his only chance.”
Ardestani also argued that regional powers including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey oppose the collapse of the Islamic Republic, which he said they view as destabilizing and economically disruptive.
Former Iranian diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi offered a more cautious assessment.
Speaking to Entekhab on January 29, he said Trump’s deployment of military forces was intended primarily to intensify diplomatic and economic pressure on Tehran rather than signal a settled decision to strike.
“Trump does not want to be remembered as a president who failed to deliver on his promises,” Ahmadi said, adding that the show of force was designed to deepen Iran’s economic crisis and force concessions.
Araghchi has denied that talks are planned with US envoy and Trump aide Steve Witkoff, even as he travels regionally to discuss mediation proposals.
Ahmadi said US military action remained possible but warned that Trump would face difficulties justifying an attack both internationally and to his domestic political base.
He also dismissed speculation that Washington might attempt to block Iran’s oil exports, arguing that such a move would almost certainly trigger military confrontation in the Persian Gulf and affect China and Arab nations in the region.
Ironically, Iran’s hardline daily Kayhan—close to the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—has suggested that Tehran itself should consider closing the strategic waterway.
Rahman Gharemanpour, an international relations expert, told Donya-ye Eghtesad that preparations for a major operation would require significantly more time and should not be read as evidence of an imminent attack.
In the same newspaper, Mashhad University academic Rouhollah Eslami said regional states are increasingly guided by cost-benefit calculations rather than ideological alignment—a shift that helps explain their reluctance to support military action against Iran.
For now, Iran’s position remains deliberately unresolved. Araghchi insists Tehran is prepared both for negotiations and for war—and given the balance of fear and defiance now shaping decision-making in Tehran, he may not be spinning for once.
Iran is now enduring the country’s longest and most comprehensive internet disruption on record. Its impact has stretched far beyond blocked platforms and loading screens, pushing many businesses to a point of no return.
Economists estimate Iran’s digital economy generates roughly 30 trillion rials (about $42 million) a day. While modest on paper, that figure represents the livelihoods of small and medium-sized enterprises that operate almost entirely online.
The Tehran Chamber of Commerce estimates that at least 500,000 Instagram-based shops operate in Iran, supporting around one million jobs whose sales effectively drop to zero without internet access.
The collapse began when the signal died
Industry data reviewed by trade groups show daily losses running into billions of rials, with the Chamber reporting revenue declines of 50% to 90%. But some analysts say even those figures understate the damage.
“Where does this figure even come from?” IT expert Amin Sabeti told Iran International. “These businesses operate on Instagram. When people have no access to Instagram, one hundred percent of their sales are gone.”
Sabeti said the lack of precise data had itself become part of the crisis. “What we do know is that Instagram and WhatsApp are widely used by small businesses, and many have now lost customers completely,” he added. “For some people, their entire livelihood depended on these platforms.”
In Iran, platforms such as Instagram, Telegram and WhatsApp function not only as messaging tools but as storefronts, marketing channels and payment gateways.
Analysts estimate more than 40 million active users rely on them, making social media the backbone of e-commerce, especially for home-based businesses, informal retailers and women-led ventures.
“In many cases, people have gone bankrupt because they had issued cheques that can no longer be covered,” Sabeti said. “The reality is that a large portion of online businesses that relied heavily on Instagram have been wiped out.”
One Tehran-based online clothing seller told the news site Dideban Iran that her sales collapsed. After just one week of disruption, she laid off all her workers, shut down her workshop and sold her sewing machines. “I’m bankrupt,” she said.
Another online seller said most digital businesses lack the reserves to survive even days without revenue. “When the internet goes,” the seller said, “whatever tiny capital we have disappears.”
Silence from businesses
Iran International contacted several large and small online businesses to ask about the impact of the blackout. None replied. Messages were not even seen — an absence that spoke louder than any quote.
A few voices surfaced briefly on X. One user wrote that a friend who teaches languages online could no longer earn enough to cover monthly expenses. “Online business is not just online shops,” the post said. “Thousands of jobs depend on the internet, and they’ve been destroyed.”
Another described producers already weakened by months of economic pressure. “In our industrial area, someone with 15 years of production experience is renting out his workshop as a spare-parts warehouse,” the post read. “Last year we had 13 workers. Now we have three.”
Economists warn the damage will outlast restored connections. Prolonged shutdowns erode trust, deter investment and stall technological development. Many business owners say they have lost not only their capital but the will and the means to start again.
Women, who make up a significant share of Iran’s home-based digital workforce, are among the most exposed. For many, online trade was the only viable entry into the economy. With that channel severed, unemployment follows quietly.
“If this situation continues, it can really push the digital economy toward destruction,” said Reza Olfatnasab, head of the union of virtual businesses.
Numbers collide, blame follows
As businesses slipped into silence, the argument over numbers intensified.
Communications Minister Sattar Hashemi said recent outages were inflicting about 5,000 billion rials a day in direct losses on the core digital economy and nearly 50 trillion rials across the wider economy. Around 10 million people depend directly or indirectly on the sector, he said, adding that the average resilience of internet-based businesses is just 20 days.
The hardline daily Kayhan dismissed those estimates as “fabricated figures,” accusing the communications ministry of deflecting responsibility and arguing that officials who failed to build a “secure and lawful” network should be held accountable.
Industry bodies offered competing assessments. Analysts say the gap exposes a deeper problem than the shutdown itself: Iran lacks any transparent, standardized system to measure its digital economy.
For many business owners, however, the debate over billions has already arrived too late. Their screens are dark, their messages unread and their income, whatever the final number, already gone.
