Brutal protest crackdown marks Tehran's death throes, ex-CIA chief says
Retired US Army General and ex-CIA director David Petraeus speaks during Iran International Insight town hall in Washington DC on Friday, January 16, 2026
The Islamic Republic's resort to the deadliest crackdown on protestors in its history signals endgame for the theocracy, retired US Army General and ex-CIA director David Petraeus told Iran International Insight, the channel's town hall held in Washington DC.
“This regime is dying. Essentially it’s fighting, it’s killing again, but it is also dying," said Petraeus, a retired four-star Army general who now runs the Middle East business of US private equity firm KKR.
“I think it signals enormous questions about the regime's ability to sustain the situation,” he said, arguing Tehran is under more pressure now than at almost any point since the Iran-Iraq war.
Speaking to host Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, Petraeus painted a stark picture of the clerical establishment facing simultaneous existential challenges at home and abroad.
“Iran is essentially defenseless at this point,” Petraeus said, referring to the destruction of air and ballistic missile defense systems early in a June conflict with Israel and the United States.
The veteran commander, who led the so-called "surge" of US forces aimed at defeating an insurgency at the height of the US war in Iraq, said the scale of violence used against demonstrators reflects fear rather than control by Iran's leaders.
While he acknowledged the Islamic Republic may be able to suppress unrest in the short term, he warned that flooding cities and towns with security forces may not buy authorities a lasting reprieve from popular anger.
“This regime has lost legitimacy. The problem is it hasn’t lost the capability to kill.”
His assessment comes as Iran grapples with sustained nationwide unrest that began on December 28 among electronics and cellphone merchants at Tehran’s bazaar and quickly escalated into a nationwide uprising against the Islamic Republic.
At least 12,000 people were killed in just two days, according to medics and Iranian officials speaking to Iran International.
With the Iranian currency cratering, inflation climbing and purchasing power collapsing, Petraeus said Iran no longer has the financial tools it once used to calm the streets.
“At this time, there's not much Iran can do about it. They have very little capacity."
Asked about Trump's mooted pledge to intervene militarily to defend protestors, Petraeus stopped short of assessing the efficacy of any US attack but said the move would be well received and not bolster the leadership.
“I think we could take action against the regime and it would be applauded … not be a rallying cry for them.”
The latest wave of protests in Iran once more demonstrated both the depth of popular opposition to the Islamic Republic and the limits of mass mobilization in the absence of a decisive breakdown in the regime’s coercive capacity.
As observed by numerous scholars of revolution, opposition forces are almost never in a strong position to defeat a regime’s armed forces. Revolutions occur when, for whatever reason, those armed forces stop suppressing the opposition.
This can happen for different reasons. One is that personnel within the armed forces simply refuse to carry out orders to suppress the opposition, as occurred in the democratic revolutions in much of Eastern Europe in 1989 and in subsequent “color revolutions” elsewhere.
The Islamic Republic’s armed forces, however, have so far proven quite willing to suppress Iranian citizens.
Another possibility is that the regime is more frightened of its armed forces than of its opponents, and therefore does not allow them to act forcefully for fear that they might seize power after suppressing the opposition.
This is what happened in Iran in 1979. But while Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was unwilling to use force effectively against his opponents, the Islamic Republic has shown no such hesitation.
Yet another scenario is that a split develops within the ranks of an authoritarian regime’s armed forces, with significant elements defecting to the opposition.
A defection by a key commander can quickly cascade, as occurred over just a few days in the Philippines in 1986. When such a defection occurs, the remaining security forces are confronted not merely with suppressing unarmed civilians, but with fighting armed men like themselves—a prospect they often wish to avoid.
This has not yet occurred in Iran, but in my view it remains the likeliest path to bringing down the Islamic Republic.
What would it take for this to happen? Most probably, it would require officers to feel confident that their institution would survive the regime’s downfall and remain intact under a new political order.
The commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are less likely to feel such confidence than Iran’s regular armed forces. But even if elements of the regular military were willing to defect to the opposition, they would likely still have to fight the IRGC—unless the latter collapsed when faced with the prospect of confronting the regular army.
These are the fraught calculations confronting those within Iran’s armed forces who share the population’s opposition to the regime.
The Trump administration might be able to affect this calculus through attacks that degrade the IRGC, but not Iran’s regular armed forces.
In other words, for the regular military to risk turning against the regime, it would have to believe both that it could defeat the IRGC and its Basij allies, and that it would itself survive the fall of the Islamic Republic.
Alternatively, some kind of deal would have to be made with IRGC commanders, assuring them of integration into a new regime’s armed forces.
On its face, of course, such an idea is utterly repugnant.
There is also the hope that rank-and-file members of the regime’s armed forces might refuse orders to fire on demonstrators and instead turn their weapons against their commanders and the regime. This, however, does not appear likely.
That being the case, the only viable path to bringing down the regime may be some form of accommodation with key elements of its armed forces.
The Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign policy might make it more open to attempting this. But America’s authoritarian Arab allies may be even more fearful of a democratic Iran than of a weakened Islamic Republic. The mere existence of a democratic Iran could inspire democratic movements in Arab countries—something their rulers are keen to avoid.
Conservative Israeli governments, too, have long taken a dim view of democratic movements in Muslim countries, which they do not expect to be as accommodating as certain authoritarian Arab governments that have signed the Abraham Accords.
Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors, in particular, can therefore be expected to lobby the Trump administration about the dangers and unpredictability of political change in Iran.
Unfortunately, all this suggests that without key defections from within Iran’s armed forces—or efforts by the United States or other outside powers to encourage them—the Islamic Republic is more likely than not to remain in power.
The best hope for Iran’s democratic opposition is to secure an accommodation with key elements of the armed forces that would trigger the kind of security-force defections seen in successful democratic revolutions elsewhere.
This is far easier said than done. But where it has happened, it has often come suddenly and unexpectedly.
As Iran endures a nationwide internet shutdown in the wake of the deadliest crackdown on protestors in decades, families abroad are using satellite television to try to reach loved ones cut off from the outside world.
A Telegram-based chatbot run by Iran International allows users to submit short messages that may be aired on television, defying the blackout.
The chatbot was launched in late December, shortly before protests spread across Iranian cities and was meant to collect photos, videos and testimonials from people inside Iran. Now the information is flowing in the other direction.
Before the shutdown, the network said it was receiving more than 10 messages a minute from users inside Iran, many of them sending videos and first-hand accounts of protests and arrests.
The tool was a key means of relaying events inside Iran to the outside world, as foreign media continue to face tight restrictions on reporting from the country and the internet shutdown which began on January 8 largely cut off that flow of information.
A tool repurposed
With most global websites blocked, social media unavailable and SMS messaging down, many people inside Iran have little or no access to the internet. Some can still make international phone calls, but the connections are unstable and expensive.
People outside Iran are mostly unable to call into the country at all.
As a result, families abroad have begun using the chatbot to send short personal messages, hoping their relatives inside the country will see them on the satellite broadcasts which are one of the few means of getting information from outside.
The network displays a QR code during live programs. Viewers outside Iran can scan it or use the Telegram handle @intlmedia_bot to submit messages, some of which are then shown on air.
Since the shutdown began, the chatbot has received more than 60,000 messages, according to the broadcaster.
How the system works
The network said it has long relied on staff to review and verify user-submitted material, but introduced automated tools to help manage the growing volume of messages.
Mahdi Tajik, an editorial lead at Iran International, said the system does not store personal data, an issue that many users worry about during periods of unrest.
Tajik said the idea of using the chatbot to relay family messages emerged after the internet shutdown cut off millions of Iranians abroad from their relatives.
“Within a day, more than 60,000 messages came in,” he said. “Many people were worried about their families. Many spoke about hope and about freedom being near.”
Some users inside Iran who managed to briefly connect to the internet told the network that seeing the messages had given them comfort, he added.
'My dear husband ...'
Many of the notes are addressed clearly to specific people, often including names, cities and family details.
“My dear husband, Shabnam and I are fine. I hope you are well in Behbahan,” one message read.
Another said: “Marjan from New Zealand ... I hope you are okay. I found no way to reach you. I hope you see this message.”
A third listed several names: “Hello to Parvin, Giti, Fereshteh, Farzaneh, Houshang, Mohsen, Alireza. I am worried about you all. I hope for our beloved Iran and to see you again. Mohammad, Canada.”
Another woman wrote: “Sister Leila, my beautiful Helia and Helna. I love you so much. I am very worried about you and miss you. Take care of yourselves and our whole family. Parinaz from San Diego.”
Editors say many of the notes come from people whose spouses, parents or children are inside Iran with no way to communicate.
The messages often focus on reassuring loved ones rather than grim news events.
Pressure on access
Satellite television remains one of the few ways information can still enter Iran. Authorities, however, have sought to limit access in some areas, including by seizing satellite dishes, according to people familiar with the situation.
At the same time, Iranians abroad have taken to the streets in cities across Europe, North America and Australia to show support for protesters at home, holding rallies and vigils and calling for international pressure on Tehran.
The messages sent through the chatbot do not allow two-way communication, and there is no guarantee they will be seen by their intended recipients.
Still, for families separated by borders and the internet shutdown, they offer one of the few remaining ways to penetrate the current digital iron curtain.
Comments by British musician Roger Waters saying Iranians do not seek regime change triggered a wave of criticism from Iranian social media users, with some circulating edited images portraying him as a cleric.
Waters, a co-founder of Pink Floyd, made the remarks on Piers Morgan Uncensored on Friday when asked about nationwide protests in Iran.
He said calls for political change were not representative of the public and portrayed the demonstrations as driven by economic pressures such as inflation and currency depreciation.
“The Iranians do not want regime change,” Waters said, adding that protesters were focused on economic pressures rather than political transformation.
Waters also dismissed support for a return to monarchy or any political role for the former shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, whose name has been chanted by protesters in the streets.
The comments drew swift pushback from Iranian users online, many of whom said Waters misrepresented the scale and slogans of the protests. Critics accused him of echoing official narratives and downplaying the extent of violence against demonstrators.
In response, activists launched an online petition titled “Show Roger Waters the True Desires of Iranians.” Arash F., the organizer, said Iran was at a critical moment and that Waters’ remarks prompted the campaign to convey what the petition describes as the demands of most Iranians at home and abroad.
“The people of Iran want regime change. The people of Iran are tired of Islam being imposed on them. The people of Iran at this point welcome any means that helps to rid us from these tyrants and thieves that operate our country,” the petition text said.
It urges Waters not to speak on behalf of Iranians and invites him to witness conditions firsthand if he wishes to comment.
Iranian rapper Shahin Najafi also weighed in on X, delivering one of the sharpest rebukes of Waters’ comments.
Najafi wrote that a figure he described as a public defender of Hamas had no legitimacy to comment on what he called the Iranian people’s revolution or their demands, arguing that such remarks amounted to aligning with “terrorist regime” and the Iranian authorities.
“More than twelve thousand Iranians have been killed by the regime’s forces. By justifying this violence, you stand complicit with the Islamic Republic. After Iran is freed from this child-killing terrorist regime, you will owe the Iranian people a clear and public apology,” he wrote.
Iranian musician and television host Arash Sobhani also criticized Waters in a post on X, saying the interview was a reminder that when an artist “replaces truth with ideology,” they stop being an artist and become a propagandist.
Sobhani added that similar images and narratives would likely be used to fire up audiences at Waters’ upcoming concerts, ending his post with a pointed reference to Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall.
Claims about protest violence
In another part of the interview, Waters attributed the killing of protesters not to state forces but to “organized armed thugs,” which he suggested could be linked to foreign intelligence services including MI6 and the CIA.
“The government sent the police out to protect those grocers, those business owners, those ordinary working people in Iran. They were attacked by gangs of armed thugs who murdered… Armed thugs probably organized by MI6 and the CIA,” said Waters.
The allegation, made without evidence, was widely criticized online as repeating official talking points and minimizing responsibility for the crackdown.
Iran International has previously reported that at least 12,000 people were killed in the largest mass killing in Iran’s modern history, during protests on January 8 and 9 that were carried out largely by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij on the orders of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
User reactions remained sharp. One X user wrote that they had once admired Waters but now saw his comments as either naive or financially motivated. Another accused him of “washing away the blood of Iranians” by distorting reality.
Others shared altered images of Waters wearing a clerical turban, depicting him as sympathetic to authoritarian governments and armed groups in the region – posts that quickly spread as a symbol of anger over his remarks.
Iran’s second-largest mobile phone operator removed its chief executive amid a dispute over enforcement of the government’s internet blackout during widespread protests.
MTN Irancell failed to promptly enforce authorities’ shutdown orders as demonstrations spread, Iranian media reported.
Alireza Rafiei was dismissed after about a year in the job because he “disobeyed orders from security bodies and violated issued regulations under crisis conditions” to restrict internet access during the uprising, IRGC-linked Fars news agency said.
The move could signal “defections at the most senior levels” of the government, Mehdi Saremifar, a science and technology journalist, told Iran International.
The dismissal followed remarks by MP Hamid Rasaei, who criticized what he described as a delay in shutting down the internet during a parliament session on Monday.
Iran cut off communications nationwide on January 8 without warning as calls intensified for anti-government protests across the country.
“While it was clear that riots were about to start and despite a request by the supreme national security council, why was the Internet shut down with delay and at 10:00 pm?” Rasaei said. “If some people had not refused, the losses and casualties would not have reached this level.”
Iran’s authorities have faced sustained criticism from activists, rights groups and some foreign governments for cutting or throttling internet access during protests, a tactic critics say hampers organizing, documentation of abuses and communication with the outside world.
Officials have framed restrictions as necessary for security and public order, while critics say shutdowns isolate communities and heighten risks for protesters during periods of violence and mass arrests.
On Monday, internet monitor NetBlocks said Iran’s nationwide blackout has entered its twelfth day, with national connectivity still at minimal levels.
“In recent days, the filternet has occasionally allowed messages through, suggesting that the regime is testing a more heavily filtered intranet,” NetBlocks added.
More than 20 days into protests across Iran which have been largely quelled in the deadliest violence in decades, accounts from inside the country sent to Iran International describe a widening crackdown.
The internet remains largely cut, de facto curfews persist in several cities, authorities continue to pressure families of slain protestors while security deployments deepen in hospitals and morgues.
The protests began on December 28 and have continued despite sweeping security measures, according to witnesses and reports gathered from multiple cities across the country.
NetBlocks, an internet monitoring group, said on Monday that Iran’s nationwide internet blackout had entered its 12th day, with international connectivity still minimal. Authorities appear to be testing a heavily filtered domestic intranet that intermittently allows limited messaging, NetBlocks said.
Iranian authorities have not publicly detailed the scope or duration of the restrictions, which activists say have severely limited communication, emergency services and independent verification of events.
A small aircraft flies over the city while carrying a banner reading "Free Iran," as part of demonstrations supporting nationwide protests in Iran, in Los Angeles, California, January 18, 2026.
Judiciary warns of swift punishment
On Monday, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei described protesters as “rioters and troublemakers” and said cases linked to unrest would be handled rapidly.
“Swift and timely implementation of punishment, without delay, is one of the elements of deterrence,” Ejei said, according to state media, adding that no delay would be tolerated in pursuing protest-related cases.
Under Iranian law, some charges related to unrest – such as moharebeh (enmity against God) can carry severe penalties, including the death sentence.
Accounts received by Iran International suggest the crackdown has extended beyond the streets into hospitals, emergency care and the handling of bodies.
Witnesses in several cities said security forces entered hospitals, removed injured protesters and restricted treatment. One doctor in the northern city of Rasht told Iran International that security forces took wounded protesters from a hospital and transferred blood supplies to a military facility.
Similar reports from other cities described morgues filling rapidly and security forces maintaining a visible presence around medical centers.
Families of those killed said they faced pressure when seeking information about bodies or burial arrangements, including financial demands and restrictions on funerals.
Several accounts said ambulances failed to reach areas where shootings occurred, with some witnesses saying phone networks were down and emergency calls could not be placed.
Others said wounded protesters bled to death after taking shelter in nearby buildings because hospitals refused to admit them or because transport was unavailable.
Witnesses described widespread use of live ammunition and pellet guns in cities including Karaj, Rasht, Shiraz and parts of Tehran province.
In Karaj, residents said security forces used tactical withdrawals to funnel large crowds into enclosed areas before opening fire. In Rasht, witnesses said protesters were trapped amid smoke and flames before being shot. No specific dates were mentioned in these accounts.
Reports from multiple cities indicated that informal curfews were in effect on Sunday, with armed patrols, checkpoints, phone searches and restrictions on nighttime movement. Residents said leaving homes after certain hours could lead to threats or detention.
Detentions and holding sites
Witnesses also reported large numbers of arrests, with some detainees held in non-prison facilities such as government buildings, camps or utility compounds.
In the northern city of Gorgan, one resident said dozens of bodies were temporarily held at a camp, while detainees were taken to a nearby prison quarantine area. Similar accounts from Qom and Isfahan described protesters being held in improvised locations.
Tight controls on burials
Accounts described families being warned to accept official narratives about the deaths of relatives or face delays in retrieving bodies. Some said burials were conducted at night with limits on attendance, while others described threats of unmarked or collective burials.
Witnesses also reported verbal abuse by security personnel at burial sites and forensic facilities.
International reaction
The protests have prompted demonstrations by Iranian communities abroad, including in Europe, Asia and Oceania with massive rallies held in the US, UK and Canada.
Several European countries have summoned Iranian ambassadors in recent weeks, while senior officials in Germany and other states have made unusually blunt statements criticizing Tehran’s handling of the unrest.
Iranian officials have repeatedly blamed foreign powers, including the United States and Israel, for the protests, accusations denied by Western governments.
With internet access still largely cut and independent journalists unable to operate freely, the full scale of the violence remains unclear.
Iran International continues to receive a high volume of consistent eyewitness accounts from across the country, but verification remains difficult due to the communications blackout and security restrictions.
For many Iranians, witnesses said, the combination of street violence, disrupted medical care and pressure on families has turned daily life into what they described as an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty more than three weeks after the protests began.