More Stories
Israel’s apparent inaction amid Iran’s widespread unrest may look counterintuitive, but it reflects a long-standing strategic calculation rather than hesitation.
The wave of protests arrived at a sensitive moment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: as he was pressing US President Donald Trump to nod ahead another round of Israeli strikes against Iran, especially its missile program.
For years, Netanyahu has argued in Washington that Tehran’s challenge cannot be resolved through containment or diplomacy alone, but only through the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
Against that backdrop, one might have expected Israel to seize on Iran’s internal instability and move decisively against its strategic assets. Instead, restraint has become policy.
Netanyahu is aware that any visible Israeli role could serve the interests of Iran’s rulers—by discrediting protesters as foreign-backed agents or by giving Tehran justification to escalate militarily against Israel.
Cautious calculation
Several considerations reinforce Netanyahu’s caution.
Israel is still emerging from a recent military campaign and has little appetite for being drawn into another direct confrontation with Iran. At the same time, Netanyahu continues to prefer US leadership on the Iran file, a long-standing strategic priority.
From his perspective, the most effective—and legitimate—pressure on Iran, including any potential military action, must come from the United States rather than Israel.
There is also a deeper calculation at play. Netanyahu may believe the Islamic Republic is closer than at any point in decades to a breaking point, and that overt Israeli involvement could delay or derail that process.
From this view, Israel’s most effective contribution to regime destabilization is to avoid becoming the focal point of Iranian nationalism or regime propaganda.
Restraint: pros and cons
Yet restraint carries risks of its own.
Iran’s theocratic rule may survive the current unrest and seek to exploit its vulnerability by pursuing a renewed nuclear agreement with the West. For Israel, this is a deeply troubling scenario as it could ease economic pressure on Tehran and extend the life of the Islamic Republic without addressing Israel’s core security concerns.
Nor would every political transformation in Iran necessarily serve Israeli or American interests.
A pro-Western restoration, such as the return of the Shah’s son, is far from certain. Other outcomes could include further radicalization of the regime or a decision to accelerate its nuclear program, moving more decisively toward a nuclear weapon.
In short, Israel is not rushing to exploit Iran’s internal crisis. Despite longstanding fears over Iran’s military buildup and a fundamental desire for regime change, Netanyahu is pursuing a policy of restraint shaped by caution, timing, and deference to US leadership.
Even so, restraint does not guarantee insulation. Israel could still be drawn into a broader conflict—particularly if the United States launches a military strike and Iran chooses to retaliate against Israeli targets.
For now, Israel’s posture reflects a familiar strategic logic: hoping for the best, while preparing for the worst.
Iran’s pop diva and national icon Googoosh has urged US President Donald Trump to take urgent action in response to the crackdown on protests in Iran.
“I write to you as an Iranian artist who once lost her voice to the Islamic Republic,” Googoosh wrote a letter to Trump. “Today, I am pleading with you, Mr. President, to act on the promise you made.”
In the letter, which she shared on Instagram, Googoosh said “credible estimates suggest that between twelve thousand and twenty thousand lives have been taken in just a few days,” and called on Trump to “stand with the Iranian people,” work with Iran’s exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, and take “urgent and decisive action.”
She criticized Iran’s leadership for decades of repression, writing that the country had chosen “war over welfare and ideology over life,” and said ordinary Iranians were now “crying out to you, asking for help as they face these ongoing crimes against humanity.”
Cloudflare’s threat-intelligence unit Cloudforce One says Tehran is targeting Instagram accounts using tools that allow the bulk extraction of follower lists and account activity.
The activity was observed amid a near-total internet blackout imposed for about a week following the outbreak of nationwide protests.
Germany has issued a new directive cautioning the country’s airlines against entering Iranian airspace, Flightradar24 said on Wednesday, as European carriers adjust operations amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The move came shortly after Lufthansa said it would bypass Iranian and Iraqi airspace until further notice.
The airline added that it would operate only daytime flights to Tel Aviv and Amman from Wednesday through Monday next week, warning that some services could be canceled as a result.
Iranian authorities have significantly expanded the presence of security forces across multiple cities, tightening control to prevent further protests in what some residents inside Iran described as a 'de facto curfew.'
Multiple sources told Iran International that patrols and checkpoints were ubiquitous, with increased police and military deployments across urban centers, particularly in major cities.
In Tehran, daily life has slowed markedly, with many shops closed and streets quieter than usual.
Residents said movement, communications, healthcare activity, and access to educational institutions are under tight government control, describing the capital as subdued and tense, with people avoiding unnecessary travel or gatherings.
"It's like a de facto curfew," one Tehran resident said.
In Karaj, residents said that because of the dense presence of security forces, people cannot even speak comfortably with one another. Similar conditions have been reported in multiple parts of the country.
The expanded security footprint follows what rights groups and media outlets describe as a bloody crackdown on the protests.
Iran International reported on Tuesday that at least 12,000 people have been killed nationwide since the unrest began, while CBS News, citing an Iranian official, said the death toll could be as high as 20,000.
Tehran rejected those figures on Wednesday, dismissing them as claims spread by what it called “Mossad-backed” media.
‘Help on the way’
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to remain in the streets and take over state institutions, telling protesters that “help is on the way,” while exiled prince Reza Pahlavi has also called on Iranians to continue demonstrations.
The calls from abroad for sustained protest appear to be colliding with a harsher reality on the ground—at least for now.
In Shiraz, sources said security conditions intensified earlier this week, with additional military units deployed and new restrictions imposed on movement. Local notices outlining the presence of armed forces and limits on traffic circulated in the city, though no nationwide emergency measures have been formally announced.
In Sanandaj, residents reported an expanded security presence beginning earlier this week, including personnel they described as speaking Arabic rather than Persian.
Similar observations have been reported by sources in other western regions, though the identities and affiliations of the forces could not be independently verified.
Some protesters and observers alleged that forces affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Afghan and Iraqi recruits, have been mobilized and organized at specific locations, including a mosque in Tehran’s Gholhak district.
Iranian authorities have not commented on these claims.
