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"Iran's in big trouble," US President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday. "It looks to me that the people are taking over certain cities that nobody thought were really possible just a few weeks ago."
"We're watching the situation very carefully. I've made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved. We'll be hitting them very hard where it hurts."
"That doesn't mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts. So we don't want that to happen. There have been cases like this where President Obama totally backed down."
"But this is something pretty incredible that's happening in Iran. It's an amazing thing to watch. They've done a bad job. They've treated their people very badly, and now they're being paid back. So let's see what happens," he added.
"You'd better not start shooting because we'd start shooting too," Trump said.
Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi warned that authorities in Tehran may carry out a mass killing under cover of a sweeping communications blackout, urging Western governments to speak out immediately.
“Tonight, I am compelled to speak with urgency," she said in a statement released on Friday. "There are credible indications that the Islamic Republic may attempt to turn this night into a massacre, under cover of a sweeping communications blackout.”
“Iranians have come into the streets peacefully. They have been met with gunfire," she added. "A blackout is not a technical failure in Iran; it is a tactic.”
Addressing Western governments and international institutions, Ebadi said silence would amount to permission, calling for immediate public pressure to halt live fire against civilians, protect hospitals and restore communications.
At least 51 protesters, including nine children, have been killed during Iran’s latest wave of nationwide unrest, according to figures released on Friday by the Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization, as authorities imposed a total internet blackout.
In a speech on Friday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei left little doubt that Tehran intends to confront the current wave of protests with force rather than concession.
The remarks pointed to an intensifying crackdown, unfolding amid a near-total internet shutdown across Iran.
Those signals have placed renewed focus on Washington, where US President Donald Trump has issued repeated public warnings to Tehran in recent days, including statements suggesting the United States could act if Iranian authorities continue killing protesters.
Whether those threats translate into policy remains unclear, but they have sharpened attention on how the White House responds as events unfold inside Iran.
Khamenei’s remarks, which included renewed accusations that protesters are being directed by foreign powers, were accompanied by direct criticism of Trump, who late Thursday night warned Iran against further violence.
Taken together, the exchanges have added to tensions already heightened by months of mutual suspicion and rhetorical escalation.
The result has been growing unease across the Iran–US–Israel triangle. Iranian officials routinely frame internal unrest as foreign intrigue, while Israeli leaders have long described the Islamic Republic as a persistent, existential threat.
Risk of escalation
Iran’s rulers now appear increasingly concerned that the United States or Israel could seek to exploit domestic instability—fears that, in turn, risk shaping Tehran’s military calculations.
Earlier this week, Iran’s National Defense Council and other security bodies issued statements warning that the country could carry out a preemptive strike if it detected preparations for an attack.
Those warnings coincided with missile tests, moves officials described as defensive but which analysts say added another layer of volatility.
The rhetoric and military signaling have raised fears of escalation even in the absence of clear intent on any side to seek a confrontation.
In Israel, security officials have expressed concern that Iran could attempt to divert attention from internal unrest by provoking an external crisis, though many analysts consider such a move unlikely.
Still, Israel’s heightened sensitivity to risk since the October 7 attacks has reinforced a preference for preparing for worst-case scenarios.
Critical decisions
As Iran’s leadership faces mounting pressure at home, the margin for error abroad appears to be narrowing.
Clear signals of US support for protesters, even if not backed by immediate action, risk aggravating Tehran’s fears of external intervention, while Iranian military signaling increases the danger of miscalculation.
Some in Washington worry that even limited American involvement—military or otherwise—could destabilize an already fragile regional balance and draw Israel into a broader confrontation.
At the same time, a White House decision to refrain from action, despite repeated warnings, could also carry consequences. Protesters inside Iran have often looked to international pressure for protection or leverage, and the absence of follow-through could further dampen momentum on the streets.
What is clear is that Iran’s internal crisis is no longer insulated from its external rivalries.
Developments inside the country now carry implications far beyond its borders, raising the risk that repression at home could intersect with miscalculation abroad—between Iran, the United States and Israel.
An Iranian eyewitness who arrived in Muscat on Friday shared accounts of escalating anti-government protests in southern cities, saying people remain in the streets.
“Thursday night in my hometown of Rafsanjan, the entire 30-Meter Street was gridlocked for five hours, packed with people chanting slogans and calling out for Prince Pahlavi,” the eyewitness told Iran International.
“All the propaganda banners belonging to the Islamic Republic along the street were set on fire. Anti-clerical slogans covered the area around the governor’s office, and people set the governor’s office itself on fire.”
The eyewitness relayed accounts from individuals in Sirjan and Shiraz, saying that security forces “appeared to have no authorization to shoot at people. They were only firing pellet guns at trees to create fear and intimidation.”
Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani blamed what he described as “armed protesters” for deaths during nationwide unrest, saying security forces had identified and begun arresting ringleaders of violent groups.
“Security forces have identified the ringleaders, arrested some of them, and will arrest others,” Larijani said in an interview with state media. “They will be dealt with.”
Larijani said some protesters had been “deceived,” while others were armed with rifles and handguns obtained from various sources. “Our problem arose only because they used those weapons,” he said.
“They tried to take over military and police centers, but we were prepared, and they did not succeed,” he said.
