Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Iran has shown restraint and pursued dialogue despite what he described as direct Israeli and US attacks on Iranian nuclear-related facilities, warning that Middle East tensions remain highly volatile.
In an interview with Russia’s TASS news agency, Lavrov said 2025 had seen “unprecedented events,” including Israeli strikes on Iran, carried out together with Washington, that targeted facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program despite those sites being under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.
“Iranians have been exercising maximum restraint and composure by responding to all the provocations and blackmail on behalf of the West by stating their commitment to dialogue and resolving the lingering differences by political means.”
Russia has firmly condemned the attacks, which Lavrov said violate international law and universally recognized moral norms. “They are completely at odds with international standards and universally recognized moral imperatives.”
Lavrov warned that Israeli officials’ statements about being prepared to use force against Iran again were a “matter of grave concern,” adding that tensions in the region risk remaining volatile.
He also criticized European countries, saying some were “adding fuel to the fire” by seeking to deepen divisions in the Middle East rather than encouraging regional cooperation.
Against that backdrop, Lavrov said Iran had responded to provocations and what he described as Western pressure and blackmail by reaffirming its commitment to dialogue and political solutions to resolve outstanding disputes.
At the start of 2024, Iran appeared to be riding high — expanding regional reach, edging closer to nuclear threshold status and projecting confidence at home and abroad. That trajectory began to reverse in late 2024 and accelerated into 2025.
The past year brought direct confrontation with Israel and later the United States, the weakening of Tehran’s regional proxy network and mounting domestic pressures. What it did not bring was collapse.
That survival, analysts warn, may now be shaping how the Islamic Republic approaches 2026 — not as a moment for restraint, but as proof that it can endure unprecedented pressure and press forward.
The defining moment of the year was the June war with Israel, a confrontation that punctured long-held assumptions about Iran’s deterrence while stopping short of triggering a regime change.
On Eye for Iran, Middle East analyst and former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed who directs the Inside the Middle East fellowship program for policy and security professionals; journalist and investigative reporter Jay Solomon, author of The Iran Wars; and historian Shahram Kholdi assessed what the Islamic Republic’s survival says about the year that is about to end and why its interpretation of that survival could make the coming year more volatile.
Fear is breaking — but survival is being reframed
Avi Melamed pointed to a psychological shift inside Iran as one of the most consequential developments of 2025.
“The most significant one is that I think that we are witnessing now a very significant shift in Iran in the sense that many Iranian people are no longer afraid of this regime,” he said.
That erosion of fear has coincided with widespread social defiance, particularly among younger Iranians and women, even as repression continues.
Shahram Kholdi said that Tehran is not reading this moment as a loss. Instead, he argued, the leadership is internalizing 2025 through a survivalist lens — one that encourages defiance rather than restraint.
“If something that can kill you doesn’t destroy you, it makes you stronger,” Kholdi said, describing what he sees as the clerical establishment’s core mentality after the June war with Israel.
That belief, he argued, helps explain why executions have continued and why the Islamic Republic is signaling resolve despite suffering unprecedented blows.
A strategic reversal — interpreted as a test passed
Externally, 2025 marked a sharp break from the trajectory that once favored Tehran. Jay Solomon described the year as a reversal after decades in which Iran expanded influence through proxies and deterrence.
“The word I’d use for the year is weakness,” he said.
Solomon pointed to Israeli strikes, the degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas, and Iran’s struggle to manage overlapping crises — from inflation and water shortages to public dissent.
Yet despite expectations of mass bloodshed following the June conflict, the Islamic Republic ultimately pulled back, reinforcing its own perception that it had weathered the storm.
Why 2026 may be more volatile
For the analysts the biggest concern for 2026 was the risk ahead.
Iran’s deterrence model has been punctured but not abandoned. Instead, Tehran appears determined to rebuild — restoring proxy leverage, advancing missile capabilities and reasserting influence amid uncertainty.
Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile appears largely intact following the June war, with roughly 2,000 heavy missiles still in its arsenal, according to Al-Monitor.
The outlet cited an Israeli security source saying that Israel's military intelligence had conveyed the assessment to the United States in an indication that Israel is urging Washington to again act to address the alleged threat.
Melamed warned that this environment heightens the risk of miscalculation. Kholdi argued that the belief that Iran “didn’t lose” the June war makes confrontation more likely, not less. Solomon added that shifting political currents in the United States are being closely watched in Tehran and Tel Aviv alike, narrowing the window for restraint.
The danger, the panel suggested, is that survival itself is being treated as victory.
As 2026 begins, the Islamic Republic may be weaker — but convinced it has passed a test. That conviction could shape the year ahead more than any battlefield outcome.
Iran would respect Iraq’s sovereignty but stood ready to act if the Iraqi government sought assistance, Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh said in an interview reported by the ISNA news agency.
“Iran is ready to protect the political system in Iraq from collapse if officially requested,” he said, without elaborating on what such protection would entail.
Iran supports Iraqi groups through financing, training, and arms, primarily focusing on Shia militias that are often integrated into the official Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
This support helps groups like the Badr Organization and Kata'ib Hezbollah exert military and political influence, though some factions like Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba have focused more on military operations. The support allows Iran to pursue its regional objectives, gain influence, and destabilize Iraqi politics while coordinating attacks against US forces.
Armed groups and ‘independent decisions’
Al-e Sadegh addressed recent Iraqi initiatives aimed at consolidating weapons under state control, a sensitive issue given the power of Iran-aligned armed factions. The Iran-backed groups, he said, were hesitant about weapons monopolisation due to concerns over its consequences, but insisted they had reached a level of maturity that allowed them to make decisions independently.
“Our relationship with these groups is longstanding, but they have reached a stage where they can decide for themselves,” he said, rejecting descriptions of the factions as Iranian proxies.
On regional tensions, the ambassador said Iran was “fully prepared” to respond to any hostile action by Israel, adding that Israel had sought US mediation to secure a ceasefire.
Iraq has balanced relations with both the United States and Iran, but faces mounting risks to its financial system if it falls foul of global sanctions regimes.
Hezbollah and the Houthis are key members of a broader network of Iran-backed groups across the region.
Iran views Iraq as a strategic economic and political partner amid Western sanctions, while Baghdad remains wary of being drawn into US efforts to squeeze Tehran and its regional allies.
