Former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani said Iran remains in a fragile security limbo months after the 12-day war in June, warning that the country cannot restore stability or economic confidence without rebuilding deterrence and addressing persistent public insecurity.
Rouhani told former ministers and senior officials that Iran had entered a prolonged period of strategic uncertainty following the 12-day confrontation, arguing that the absence of clear deterrence has left the country exposed to regional pressures and foreign threats.
Rouhani said that “after five months have passed since the 12-day war, we are still in a situation of neither war nor peace, and there is no sense of security in the country. Whether actual security exists or not is another matter.”
He added that “when people do not feel secure, talking about economic growth, lowering inflation or attracting investment has little meaning. This feeling of insecurity – psychological insecurity, social insecurity, intellectual insecurity, mental insecurity – exists.”
He said national security in any country rests on deterrence and on stopping adversaries from initiating conflict.
Rouhani tied Iran’s own shortfalls in deterrence to regional instability, saying neighboring states still rely heavily on the United States and Israel for security. He said Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan do not control their airspace or security environments in ways that would limit hostile activity, and that this has reduced Iran’s strategic buffer zone.
“Unfortunately, we do not currently have broad regional deterrence. Our neighboring countries – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan – are, unfortunately, operating in environments largely shaped by the United States and Israel.”
He warned that this landscape has created what he described as unusually free access for Israel, saying “Israel moves up to our borders in undefended and open airspace” and “the sky up to Iran has become completely safe for the enemy.”
Rouhani said national cohesion and accurate assessments of Iran’s own capabilities remain essential for maintaining deterrence. He cautioned against overestimating Iran’s military or technological strengths and said misjudging adversaries could lead to strategic miscalculations.
Rouhani said renewed diplomacy remains essential even if political negotiations are difficult. “In politics, a complete dead end is very rare. We must make extra efforts to resolve issues.”
He said avoiding a renewed conflict ultimately rests with Iran, adding “whether war happens again is in our hands.”
“The continued drying and the cut in permanent flows have brought land subsidence and the death of Gavkhouni to a point of no return and even put drinking water on the threshold of threat,” said Dariush Golalizadeh, the provincial environment department chief.
“The Zayandeh-Roud played a key role in recharging aquifers and preventing subsidence. With multi-year drought and sharply reduced inflows, alongside heavier pumping from wells and wastewater use, subsidence has intensified alarmingly.”
Golalizadeh said the internationally listed Gavkhouni wetland downstream of Isfahan is turning into a dust hotspot. “When the wetland falls apart, it means there are serious problems in water and land management above it.”
He linked the ecological stress to livelihoods, saying orchards, urban green spaces and farmers have been hit across the basin. Authorities are now working on support programs for Isfahan’s eastern districts to soften the blow to agriculture, he said.
The official urged emergency measures to keep minimum flows to the river and wetland.
“At present, because of the sharp drop in river yield, drinking water is under threat,” he said. “We are looking to other sources, but rising temperatures and drought have cut inflows to a minimum.”
The online newspaper Seday-e Iran (Voice of Iran) dedicated its Thursday issue to Niloufar Ghalehvand, a young coach killed along with her parents in an Israeli strike.
However, the newspaper used a real photograph showing her wearing a cap rather than a headscarf, falling short of the mandatory veiling rules promoted by the Islamic Republic.
The choice triggered angry reactions from several conservative activists and ultra-loyalist groups.
Among the critics was Mehri Talebi Darestani, a prominent hardline commentator, who questioned whether the outlet was justified in “ignoring divine boundaries (hijab) and promoting wrongdoing for the sake of a lofty divine goal (maximum outreach)”.
In a lengthy post, she argued that no individual or institution “has ironclad immunity,” quoting past remarks by Khamenei that everyone must remain accountable under the law — comments she framed as a rebuke to those shielding the Khamenei-linked publication from criticism.
The pro-establishment group “Banouye Tamaddon-Saz” (Civilization-Building Woman) also joined the backlash, echoing objections to showcasing an unveiled image of a female “martyr,” a term used by the state for those killed in the conflict.
The controversy drew further attention after Fars News, an outlet affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard entered the debate.
Defending Khamenei’s office, Fars published an AI-generated veiled photo of Ghalehvand to show that producing such images “is not difficult,” adding that the newspaper had deliberately used the real photograph “based on the core media principle of truthful storytelling.”
Fars argued that authentic representation carries several messages: that Israel “targets Iranians, regardless of appearance, clothing, taste, or lifestyle”; that victims of the war come from “all social and ideological backgrounds” and should not be reshaped to fit a predetermined narrative; and that showing reality “deepens the human dimension of their suffering” and elevates the story from a partisan frame to a national one.
The dispute reflects a broader struggle inside Iran’s conservative camp over the mandatory hijab, which is widely flouted by the public these days, at a time the Islamic Republic or at least the relatively moderate government of Masoud Pezeshkian seeks to project unity after the brief but intense conflict with Israel.
"Some of Khamenei’s supporters believe that once the 'hijab frontline' is captured by the public, the rest will fall as well. So they insist that this frontline must be retaken," says London-based journalist Mohammad Rahbar.
"For that reason, they are now seeking to enforce the hijab law even without the morality police — by making conditions so strict and penalties so severe that they can somehow re-impose the old mandatory-hijab order. But it is highly unlikely they have the power to reverse what has taken root in society."
The US dollar, which traded at about 140,000 rials in 2018, has risen roughly eight-fold since Donald Trump restored US sanctions on Iran seven years ago.
The current dollar rate of 1.16 million rials is just shy of the all-time high of 1.17 million recorded on September 30.
The reimposition of UN sanctions in September deepened the currency shock, Parliamentarian Valiollah Bayati said last month. Addressing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Bayati said public anxiety was mounting.
The sanctions were restored 30 days after Britain, France and Germany triggered the so-called snapback mechanism under the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, citing Iran's failure to comply with its nuclear obligations.
The move restored UN penalties previously suspended under the resolution, tightening external constraints on Iran’s economy.
Farid Mousavi, a member of parliament’s economic committee, warned earlier this month that the currency rise could accelerate in coming weeks. “With inflation continuing at this pace, a 1.3 million-rial dollar rate in winter is not far-fetched."
Official figures show food costs up more than 66 percent over the past year, with bread and grains up 100 percent, fruit and nuts 108 percent, and vegetables almost 69 percent.
The central bank’s latest report also indicates a record surge in capital flight during the spring, underscoring dwindling market confidence.
Rising fuel costs compound volatility
The currency rise follows a domestic fuel-price increase that legislators warn will spill into transport and retail markets.
Mohsen Biglari, secretary of parliament’s budget committee, told the Rouydad24 outlet that higher gasoline costs would influence prices across sectors. “If people have to buy fifty-thousand-rial gasoline, it will certainly affect other goods and services."
The government’s new fuel pricing system, announced on Tuesday, introduces a third rate of 50,000 rials per liter (4.4 cents per the free market rate) for drivers refueling without smart rationing cards or beyond their quota, while keeping existing 15,000- and 30,000-rial rates ((1.3 and 2.6 cents, respectively).
The accelerating dollar, mounting household costs, and weakening investor sentiment together signal a deepening inflationary cycle likely to shape Iran’s economic trajectory in the months ahead.
