Former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani said Iran remains in a fragile security limbo months after the 12-day war in June, warning that the country cannot restore stability or economic confidence without rebuilding deterrence and addressing persistent public insecurity.
Rouhani told former ministers and senior officials that Iran had entered a prolonged period of strategic uncertainty following the 12-day confrontation, arguing that the absence of clear deterrence has left the country exposed to regional pressures and foreign threats.
Rouhani said that “after five months have passed since the 12-day war, we are still in a situation of neither war nor peace, and there is no sense of security in the country. Whether actual security exists or not is another matter.”
He added that “when people do not feel secure, talking about economic growth, lowering inflation or attracting investment has little meaning. This feeling of insecurity – psychological insecurity, social insecurity, intellectual insecurity, mental insecurity – exists.”
He said national security in any country rests on deterrence and on stopping adversaries from initiating conflict.
Rouhani tied Iran’s own shortfalls in deterrence to regional instability, saying neighboring states still rely heavily on the United States and Israel for security. He said Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan do not control their airspace or security environments in ways that would limit hostile activity, and that this has reduced Iran’s strategic buffer zone.
“Unfortunately, we do not currently have broad regional deterrence. Our neighboring countries – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan – are, unfortunately, operating in environments largely shaped by the United States and Israel.”
He warned that this landscape has created what he described as unusually free access for Israel, saying “Israel moves up to our borders in undefended and open airspace” and “the sky up to Iran has become completely safe for the enemy.”
Rouhani said national cohesion and accurate assessments of Iran’s own capabilities remain essential for maintaining deterrence. He cautioned against overestimating Iran’s military or technological strengths and said misjudging adversaries could lead to strategic miscalculations.
Rouhani said renewed diplomacy remains essential even if political negotiations are difficult. “In politics, a complete dead end is very rare. We must make extra efforts to resolve issues.”
He said avoiding a renewed conflict ultimately rests with Iran, adding “whether war happens again is in our hands.”
