Iran International
Iran’s nuclear strategy has entered an ambiguous new phase, said veteran non-proliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick, and Israel’s attacks in June could have left intact Tehran's ability to pivot toward a bomb if it so chose.
"It’s all about ambiguity. Nuclear hedging is all about the other side not knowing exactly what we have or exactly what our intentions are," Fitzpatrick, an associate fellow with The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told Eye for Iran.
Fitzpatrick, the author of “The Iranian Nuclear Crisis" and former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation, spoke after Iran this week rejected a new International Atomic Energy Agency resolution demanding access to its bombed nuclear sites.
US strikes capped off a surprise military campaign against Iran in June and targeted the Natanz, Esfahan and Fordow nuclear sites. Iranian authorities have barred international inspection of the stricken facilities in the months since.
A leaked report from the UN nuclear watchdog says it has lost continuity of knowledge on Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile, which had grown to roughly 400 kilograms before the attacks.
Rafael Grossi, head of the agency warned this week that monitoring gaps have become a serious proliferation risk. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, responded by saying the resolution voided an earlier deal with the nuclear body.
What has actually changed?
Fitzpatrick says none of these developments signal a shift in Iran’s doctrine and that ambiguity may be a deliberate part of Iran's strategy.
“I don’t see any evidence that they’ve given up the desire to have a nuclear option for the future.” He argued Iran remains committed to so-called nuclear hedging, a strategy designed to maintain the capability to produce a weapon quickly while avoiding the political cost of crossing the threshold.
What has changed is Iran’s capacity, as Iran's foreign minister said this week that no enrichment had occurred since the attacks. “We’re not enriching for now because we can’t,” Abbas Araghchi said this week.
Araghchi told The Economist in an interview published on Thursday that Tehran is open to talks with the United States but not on Washington’s terms. “Zero enrichment is impossible ... zero (nuclear) weapons is possible.”
Fitzpatrick believes Iran is now stuck between possible inclination to revive its nuclear capability and desire to avoid renewed attack.
If Tehran tries to recover the buried canisters of 60 percent material or construction accelerates at the sensitive sites, he says Israel will likely strike again. The current drift, Fitzpatrick added, may be a sign of Iran making a bid for time, or "temporizing."
Despite the damage, Fitzpatrick believes the strikes may have strengthened the internal argument for a bomb.
“It probably steels a determination to have an option.”
Regional dynamics add further risk
In Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was in Washington this week he inked a Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement with Washington, which “builds the legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership."
It positions the United States as Saudi Arabia’s “civil nuclear cooperation partner of choice," according to a release by the White House.
White House officials said the partnership would not entail Saudi enrichment, though it adds another nuclear element to the tense Persian Gulf region.
“If Saudi Arabia has an enrichment capability, then not just Iran, but other states in the region will say well we should have it too.”
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"There's never been a time like this in the Middle East. You have peace in the Middle East now," Trump told Fox News in an interview published on Friday.
"You have Iran, which has been beaten very badly, and their nuclear capability taken away, and they want to make a deal, and we probably will make a deal with Iran. But you have peace for the first time in the Middle East, you have real peace."
Iran has denied seeking a nuclear weapon and has rejected US demands that it end domestic enrichment, rein in its missile program and cut off help for its armed Mideast allies.
Washington engaged in talks with Tehran over its disputed nuclear program earlier this year after giving its Mideast arch-enemy a 60-day ultimatum.
On the 61st day, June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign which was capped with US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
The impasse over the disputed program festers despite Trump's assertion that the US attacks had "obliterated" it.
'Down to size'
Trump welcomed the de facto leader of Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House this week, and has several times said his actions in Iran defanged Tehran. He repeatedly said Washington was in dialogue with Tehran in assertions flatly rejected by Iran.
"One year ago. You had nuclear weapons. You had Iran was boasting about how strong they were, you had this is a totally different Middle East right now," Trump added.
"You have countries that want to make peace, as opposed to countries that had no idea of making peace. We've taken a big, dark cloud off of the Middle East by bringing Iran back down to size."
The two-year regional conflagration sparked by Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 was paused by a ceasefire Trump brokered last month, but the truce appears fragile as Israeli air strikes hit Gaza and southern Lebanon this week.
Israel accuses Hamas and Hezbollah, armed allies of Iran on its southern and northern fronts, of seeking to rearm and posing a threat to its forces. The two groups say Israel is violating internationally brokered ceasefires with the attacks.
"You have Hamas, which is has been, you know, beaten very badly," Trump told Fox News. "You have Hezbollah with Lebanon, which is not good, but that's a, you know, relatively small situation, not a good situation, but small."
The Asr-e Iran news outlet direct a sharp rebuke at Alireza Biniaz, the Kish Friday prayer leader in the form of a lengthy commentary. Friday prayer leaders are official positions appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's office.
“What does a special beach for the Friday prayer leader and his friends even mean? Was wanting special treatment in other areas not enough – now a special beach too?” the outlet said.
“You go to university with special privileges, get hired with special privileges, use a privileged internet line, and then go to Kish to stay at a special beach?” Asr-e Iran wrote.
Biniaz's original letter was addressed to Mohammadjafar Kabiri, the head of the Kish Free Zone Organization. Earlier discussions with the economy minister, Biniaz wrote, had produced an understanding to build and operate a special beach for the Friday prayer institution.
He urged officials to expedite and finalize its allocation to allow access for “devout individuals, committed citizens, officials and special guests.”
Public spaces and equal access
Asr-e Iran rejected dividing society into categories of devotion. “Why insist on separating society into devout and non-devout?” it said. “It is the right of all Iranians to enjoy the island’s amenities, and the degree of anyone’s devotion is not for the Friday prayer leader of Kish – or anywhere else – to determine,” the website added.
The outlet asked President Massoud Pezeshkian to verify the letter’s authenticity and assess any role played by the economy ministry, arguing that inaction would reinforce perceptions of privileged access for clerics.
Earlier cases reflect a wider pattern
This is not the first time Friday prayer leaders and figures close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have sought special advantages for themselves, with their names appearing in economic corruption files and similar cases.
In March 2024, journalist Yashar Soltani published documents revealing financial misconduct by Kazem Sedighi, then the Tehran Friday prayer leader, involving the 4,200-square-meter property valued at roughly ten trillion rials ($8.85 million).
The property, which had been under the control of a seminary managed by Sedighi, was transferred for only 66 billion rials ($58.4 thousand).
After widespread criticism and a strong public reaction, Sedighi eventually wrote to Khamenei in August seeking “to be excused from leading Friday prayers in order to focus on academic, teaching and preaching work,” a request the Supreme Leader approved.
“Like the diplomacy which was assaulted by Israel and the US in June, the Cairo Agreement has been killed by the US and the E3,” Araghchi wrote on X, referring to Britain, France and Germany.
He said the chain of events began when “Iran was suddenly attacked by Israel and then the US” on the eve of a new round of indirect nuclear talks.
“When Iran later signed a deal with the IAEA in Cairo to resume inspections despite the bombings, the E3 pursued UN sanctions against our people under US pressure,” he wrote.
Araghchi said that when Iran began allowing International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors access to its facilities, “the US and the E3 ganged up to censure Iran” at the agency’s Board of Governors.
“Iran is not the party that seeks to manufacture another crisis,” he added. “The official termination of the Cairo Agreement is the direct outcome of their provocations.”
Tehran says resolution is politically driven
His comments followed Iran’s announcement that it will respond to a resolution passed on Thursday by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, which Tehran called “illegal and unjustified.” The Foreign Ministry said the measure, backed by Washington and its European allies, was a “political misuse of the Agency” and had nullified the Cairo inspection accord reached in September.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran had officially informed the IAEA that the understanding reached in Cairo was “no longer valid.” “The so-called Cairo accord, which had been achieved through lengthy negotiations and Iran’s goodwill, is now considered void,” he told state media.
The ministry said the United States and the three European countries “ignored Iran’s responsible and good-faith conduct, disrupting the positive path that had emerged between Iran and the Agency, and forced Iran to declare the termination of the September 9 understanding.”
Resolution presses Iran for access after attacks
The IAEA Board of Governors adopted the Western-backed resolution urging Iran to provide full access and information about its nuclear program. Diplomats said the measure passed with 19 votes in favor, three against and 12 abstentions, with Russia, China and Niger voting against it.
The resolution calls on Iran to allow verification of its enriched uranium stockpile and inspections at sites damaged by US and Israeli airstrikes in June. Iran says those attacks killed several nuclear scientists and halted cooperation with the Agency because of security concerns.
Earlier this week, Araghchi said Washington’s approach amounted to “dictation, not negotiation,” accusing the US of trying to achieve through diplomacy what it failed to gain by force. “They want us to accept zero enrichment and limits on our defense capabilities,” he said. “This is not negotiation.”
The 24-hour average for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) stood at 103 on Friday, placing the capital in the category affecting children, the elderly and people with heart or respiratory conditions, the Tehran Air Quality Control Company said.
Morning readings reached 133, extending the hazard to a broader segment of vulnerable residents.
The US EPA Air Quality Index uses six color-coded categories to show rising levels of pollution and health risk. It starts with Good (0–50, green), where the air poses little or no threat. Moderate (51–100, yellow) signals acceptable conditions but possible effects for a small number of sensitive people. Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (101–150, orange) warns of heightened risk for those with respiratory or heart conditions. Unhealthy (151–200, red) means everyone may begin to feel adverse effects. Very Unhealthy (201–300, purple) marks a serious increase in health concerns. At the top of the scale, Hazardous (301+, maroon) indicates dangerous conditions where the entire population may face severe health impacts.
Prolonged stability expected to worsen pollution
Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Karaj, Ahvaz and Mashhad were listed as the cities most at risk of severe deterioration.
The stagnant pattern is likely to persist, Sadegh Ziaian, an official at the National Meteorological Organization, said on Thursday.
“An increase in pollutant concentrations in the major cities is certain,” he said, adding that only parts of Iran’s eastern belt would see winds strong enough to disperse particulates. “Tehran’s sky will remain clear with local haze, and air will reach unhealthy levels for all groups.”
Public health toll and calls for systemic reform
The health ministry has repeatedly stressed the human cost of chronic pollution. 58,975 deaths in the past Iranian year were attributable to poor air quality, an average of 161 a day, with economic losses estimated at $17.2 billion, according to Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisi.
Meteorologists advised residents and authorities to curb non-essential travel, manage fuel consumption, restrict polluting industrial activity and avoid outdoor exercise. Environmental specialists continue to urge long-delayed measures – from retiring aging vehicles to expanding cleaner energy – warning that without structural reforms, cities such as Tehran will remain trapped in cycles of hazardous air and mounting health impacts.