A freely elected constituent assembly to rewrite Iran’s constitution is the only peaceful path to democratic transition, imprisoned politician Mostafa Tajzadeh said in a letter from prison made public on Tuesday.
Tajzadeh said the constituent assembly is the only way to avert state collapse or violent chaos once Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is no longer in power.
“As of now there are the likely scenarios: Continuing the status quo (which will lead to gradual “state failure from above”), violent overthrow (likely producing anarchy, foreign intervention and possible territorial break-up), or fundamental structural reform while Khamenei remains alive,” Tajzadeh said in the letter published on his Telegram channel.
Tajzadeh said mass civil disobedience has already defeated the compulsory hijab and internet filtering, and the same strategy can force the government’s hard core, including the Revolutionary Guards and senior clerics, to accept a national referendum and the formation of a constituent assembly.
“The ceiling and floor of constitutional amendments will be determined by representatives elected by the nation in a constituent assembly, who will then submit the new charter to a referendum,” Tajzadeh said.
‘Constitutional revolution'
“The minimum national demand will be the removal of velayat-e faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) from the constitution and the end of clerical rule – a failed experiment that has revived the bitter experience of Church domination in the Middle Ages in the modern era,” he added.
Tajzadeh said the path forward would be the model of Iran’s 1905–1911 Constitutional Revolution.
“The only peaceful transition passes through the Constitutional Revolution model: forcing the hard core (including the IRGC and clergy) to accept change while the Leader is still alive,” Tajzadeh said.
“Both preserving the status quo and violent overthrow would lead to the same destination - state collapse, prolonged chaos, foreign intervention, and possible fragmentation of Iran.”
'Chalice of poison'
In the letter titled 'Iran After 12 Days', Tajzadeh said Khamenei "has neither the courage to drink the chalice of poison, nor the bravery to resign."
The phrase "chalice of poison” is one of the most famous metaphors in the political lexicon of the Islamic Republic. It was used by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1988, when he accepted UN Resolution 598 that mandated a ceasefire to end the eight-year Iran–Iraq War.
Tajzadeh said “Khamenei no longer has the power to impose the compulsory hijab on women, nor the capacity to tolerate their freedom to choose. He can neither continue the militarization of the state and the barracks-style governance of society, nor hand over the management of the country to civilians.”
“Khamenei’s refusal to go along with unfolding transformations will not discourage the people from pursuing them; but his confrontation with the nation’s demands will carry unpredictable and extremely dangerous consequences — to the point where it may leave no path to repair the damage caused by his obstinacy.”
The letter, which was released just 13 days after Tajzadeh was rearrested and returned to Evin Prison after a brief furlough, is his clearest roadmap yet for a post-Khamenei Iran.
Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister under President Khatami, has been in and out of prison since 2009 for criticizing the Supreme Leader and calling for structural reform.
Across Iran’s rice-producing provinces, several main varieties are prized, and priced, above others, including the premium Tarom Hashemi, and the cheaper Fajr and Shiroudi varieties.
Research by Iran International shows that premium Tarom Hashemi rice is now being sold for up to four million rials (about $3.56) per kilogram.
A year ago, it sold for around 1.2 million rials (about $1.07) – a rise of more than 230% in just twelve months.
“Last year I bought this same rice for 1.2 million rials,” said Farhad, 38, from Karaj. “Now it’s 3.5 million, and I am sure it's not as genuine as it once was. Khamenei has spent over four decades chasing war, missiles and chanting ‘death to this or that.’ Now we can’t even afford rice.”
In Tehran, Fereshteh, a mother of two, said prices have soared in recent months. “Five months ago, it was 1.87 million rials (about $1.66). Today in the supermarket, it’s 3.57 million (about $3.17),” she told Iran International.
Rising inflation and a weakening currency have helped drive up costs of living in Iran and economic pain has deepened as Western and European-triggered international sanctions compound the country's international isolation.
A standoff over Iran's disputed nuclear program lingers as negotiations to resolve the impasse appear elusive. Tehran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, rejects US demands to end domestic enrichment and rein in its missile capabilities and support for armed allies in the region.
The latest figures from Tehran’s Municipal Market Organization – where goods are sold below retail – show Tarom Hashemi rice each priced at 3.35 million rials (about $2.97) per kilogram, with other varieties ranging between 2.1 million rials ($1.87) and 2.75 million rials ($2.44).
Yet shoppers say such prices are deceptive as they allege stores mix low-grade grains into premium brands. True top-quality rice, they say, now costs between 3.5 million rials ($3.11) and 4 million rials ($3.56) per kilo.
Mid-range varieties also more pricey
Recent market data show that Shiroudi rice, which sold for 830,000 rials (about $0.74) per kilogram last November, now ranges between 2.1 million rials (about $1.87) and 2.35 million rials (about $2.09). Based on the lowest price, this marks a 153% annual increase.
Fajr rice has followed a similar trajectory: it rose from 900,000 rials (about $0.80) per kilogram last year to 2–2.75 million rials (about $1.78–$2.44) today – an increase of at least 122%.
One kilogram of Iranian rice feeds about five people.
Iran International’s analysis shows that each plate of rice now costs 800,000 to 1 million rials (about 71-89 cents), while even a single spoonful costs at least around 40,000 rials (about 4 cents).
For a family of four, consuming rice once daily – about 15 to 20 kilograms per month – means spending 70 to 100 million rials (about $62–$89), nearly half the average Iranian monthly income, which stands below $200.
Rice, once described as the daily heartbeat of Iranian cuisine, has become a measure of economic despair.
“I grew up in Gilan where rice was sacred,” said Mitra, 51, a retired teacher. “Now I can’t even afford one bag. What kind of country turns its own staple into gold?”
“Iranian rice has a unique aroma, texture, and flavor that perfectly matches our cuisine,” said Banafsheh, 44, from Tehran. “Foreign varieties – Indian, Pakistani, or Thai – can never replace it in Iranian cooking.
"Our rice is what we serve at gatherings; it’s a sign of respect for guests," she added. "But now, many of us can’t even fill our own plates with it. We’ve been forced to switch to foreign rice, and even that is becoming unaffordable.”
Profiteering, mismanagement
“While the global price for premium rice is about one dollar per kilogram, Iranian consumers pay the equivalent of over three dollars,” Agricultural economist Amir Aghajanian, a member of the Rice Producers Association, told the state-run Fars news agency.
Production costs for northern farmers, he said, are around 1.45 million rials (about $1.29) per kilogram, but middlemen push retail prices above 3.5 million rials (about $3.11). “Excessive profit-taking and weak market oversight have inflated prices far beyond production costs,” Aghajanian asserted.
Iran’s agriculture minister recently revealed that one importer earned $250 million in illicit profit through price manipulation and hoarding, highlighting deep flaws in import oversight.
Other agricultural experts say the crisis runs deeper: rising input costs, fragmented farmlands and outdated tools all push production expenses higher.
“When farmers use traditional methods on small plots, costs rise naturally,” one rice market analyst in Lahijan told Fars. “But when corrupt traders control imports, consumers suffer twice.”
For centuries, rice has anchored Iranian cuisine – from Chelo Kabab, the classic dish of steamed rice served with grilled meat, to Zereshk Polo, rice cooked with barberries and saffron next to chicken.
But in today’s Iran, families ration it like medicine. “Even foreign rice is slipping out of reach,” Farhad from Karaj added. “Our dinner tables are shrinking while the government talks about resistance and dignity.”
As one grocer told Iran International, “Rice was the food of everyone – rich and poor. Now it’s become the food of memory.”