Iran International
Threats by Iranian hardliners to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) after a June war are likely headed nowhere because of Tehran's keenness not to irritate Russia and China, Middle East expert Kenneth Pollack told Iran International.
“The Chinese absolutely do not want to see Iran acquire nuclear weapons. That would be very problematic for them. For the same reason, the Chinese do not want to see Iran violate the NPT,” added Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington DC.
“I would say the same, at least in theory, for the Russians,” he added, referring to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran and Western powers are at an impasse on how to revive dialogue and nuclear inspections after a 12-day conflict with Israel and the United States in June.
Stung over the weekend by resumed international sanctions triggered by European powers over its nuclear program, Iran likely sees China and Russia as key bulwarks against further isolation, Pollack said. "That’s too dangerous for them."
While Iranian-designed drones have been key to Russia's war effort against Ukraine, Moscow provided little support during the brief summer war.
The two countries have signed a long-term security framework, but Russia’s restraint underscores the limits of its backing.
China and Iran inked a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021 which envisioned Chinese investment in Iran’s energy and infrastructure sectors in exchange for long-term energy supply commitments.
But implementation has lagged under sanctions, with Chinese investments limited and its exact terms kept secret.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian did not play a prominent role during a recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, was notably absent from the customary group photo and filed out near the back of invited world leaders at a subsequent Chinese military parade.
China and Russia at the United Nations Security Council last week tried to win Iran a reprieve from the renewed sanctions but failed to muster enough votes.
Maximum pressure return
Pollack said oil sales remain Tehran’s economic lifeline, noting that Iran currently exports—largely through illicit channels—about 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, consistent with independent tracking estimates.
More could be done by the administration of US President Donald Trump to ramp up so-called Maximum Pressure sanctions to deprive Tehran of its revenue.
“The US could reduce that flow to 500,000 barrels per day, or even 300,000,” Pollack added, saying measures against Iran's use of neighboring Iraq's financial system and further listing of oil-exporting networks could yield further pain on Tehran.
“That would have a massive impact on the amount of money coming back into Iran. For the average Iranian, it could be very significant,” he added, noting the hardship wrought on citizens amid the geopolitical tussle.
The maximum pressure sanctions strategy was first pursued under Trump's first term, but since its reimplementation in January has fallen far short of its goal of drive Iran’s oil exports to zero.
The UN sanctions reimposed on Iran over the weekend appear set to deepen the country’s financial crisis. The rial has fallen to record lows against the dollar, inflation remains in double digits, and the cost of food and fuel continues to rise.
