Any uprising in Iran would be thanks to Israeli attacks, Netanyahu says

A June 24 ceasefire ended a surprise 12-day Israeli military campaign which killed hundreds of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. 29 Israeli civilians were killed in Iranian counterattacks.

“The war has not ended. We are in a state of temporary pause,” Brigadier General Majid Khademi said in a speech marking the 40th-day memorial ceremony in Mashhad for his predecessor, Mohammad Kazemi, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike during the conflict.

“The enemy is conducting cognitive operations, intelligence warfare and psychological attacks, pinning its hopes on creating internal crises. Therefore, the people and officials must enter the field with vigilance,” he added.

On June 13, Israel commenced heavy bombing of Iran’s nuclear and military sites in a conflict capped off by US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, before a US-brokered ceasefire took effect on June 24.

Among those killed during the war were several senior military leaders, including Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh and IRGC Deputy for Operations Mehdi Rabbani.

Tasnim, a news outlet affiliated with the IRGC, on Thursday published a lengthy article saying Iran's repaired air defenses and intact missile stocks could wreak even more damage on Israel in a renewed conflict.

Warning to E3 over snapback threat

Khademi also warned United Kingdom, France and Germany—the so-called E3— against triggering the so-called snapback mechanism triggering United Nations sanctions under a 2015 nuclear deal, accusing Israel of trying to manipulate them as it did the United States.

“Today as well, the Zionist regime is trying to push the Europeans into the same strategic mistake witnessed in the snapback mechanism case. Just as they previously misled the United States, they are now steering Europe toward taking hostile actions against Iran. We are issuing this warning explicitly.”

His comments come amid growing concern in Tehran that Britain, France and Germany may move to trigger the snapback mechanism before the 2015 nuclear deal’s 10-year term expires in October.

The snapback, created under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, lets any party to the 2015 nuclear deal restore UN sanctions if Iran is found non-compliant. If no resolution is passed within 30 days to extend sanctions relief, all previous measures return automatically.

Last Saturday, Iran's government spokeswoman said that Tehran is holding talks with the E3 on its nuclear program, but no negotiations aimed at reaching a new agreement are currently underway.

“As a result of President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and increasing isolation from the global financial system, the Iranian regime is running out of places to hide,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“Treasury will continue to disrupt Iran’s schemes aimed at evading our sanctions, block its access to revenue, and starve its weapons programs of capital in order to protect the American people.”

The designations target Iran’s banking systems, offshore finance networks and technology firms providing surveillance tools to the state.

Among the entities sanctioned is the RUNC Exchange System Company, which developed Iran’s Cross-Border Interbank Messaging System (CIMS), designed to bypass conventional banking controls and facilitate cooperation with sanctioned banks like China’s Bank of Kunlun.

The Treasury also designated Cyrus Offshore Bank, which it said operates from Iran’s Kish Free Zone and is secretly controlled by the already-sanctioned Parsian Bank.

According to the press release, Cyrus Bank has helped route oil proceeds to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Other sanctions focused on Pasargad Arian Information and Communication Technology Company (FANAP), a tech firm linked to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC.

The Treasury said FANAP and its subsidiaries have developed tools used to surveil citizens, enforce internet restrictions, and identify women who defy mandatory hijab laws.

Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, a hardline member of Iran’s Expediency Council, said on state television this week that Israel’s attacks on Iran in a 12-day war in June was part of a deliberate, long-planned “overthrow” operation.

“(Some people) in Israel contacted certain officials within Russia’s Foreign Ministry two to three days before the attack,” he asserted, informing Moscow about the operation and urging them to abandon their cooperation with Tehran.

The Islamic Republic would be toppled in a few days, the Russians were told, according to Saffar-Harandi. He did not say how he obtained the information, nor whether Moscow had informed Tehran or taken any preventive steps.

“If his claim is true, did Russia inform Iran? Or was Russia suffering from a miscalculation (like Israel), believing that Iran was finished?” asked Esfandiar Zolghadr, lawyer and journalist, in a post on X.

Moscow muted

Russia’s response to the war was limited to diplomatic statements, offering no political or military support for Tehran. Iranian analysts see this as a reflection of Moscow’s focus on the Ukraine war and its desire to avoid jeopardizing ties with Israel and the West.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters last week that Moscow was “seriously concerned” about Israeli and American attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities—but stopped short of backing Iran, instead urging negotiations with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

Critics in Iran argue this cautious stance fits a broader pattern.

“From Russia’s unfulfilled promises to deliver defense systems like the S-400 and Su-35 fighter jets, to repeated delays in military cooperation, all suggest that this partnership is not based on mutual trust, but rather on opportunistic, short-term interests,” the reformist Shargh daily said in an August 5 commentary.

Israel first?

Russia’s response has not gone unnoticed in Iran’s military and political circles.

Brigadier-General Yadollah Javani, political deputy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, acknowledged public confusion over the silence of both Russia and China, pointing to the limits of military pacts that don’t entail mutual defense.

Nematollah Izadi, Iran’s former ambassador to Russia, told the Jamaran news website in late July that if Russia had to choose between Iran and Israel, “it would definitely choose Israel.”

He also pointed to Moscow’s strategic logic: continued Iran-West tensions help Russia maintain regional leverage. A thaw with the West, he warned, could shift Tehran’s alignment.

During the war, President Vladimir Putin said Israel has two million Russian speakers and is “practically a Russian-speaking country.”

The comment was seen as a signal of priorities in Tehran.

“Putin’s statements indicated that ethnic and demographic ties with Israel take precedence for him over regional commitments with Iran,” the commentary in Shargh read.

“This behavior cannot be explained merely within the framework of diplomatic caution; rather, it should be seen as the logical extension of a policy rooted in transactionalism.”

“Iran’s air defense was damaged early in the 12-day war, but since then Iran has rebuilt and modernized its systems. Israel now realizes that Iran’s air defense in a future war would be multiple times stronger,” Tasnim News wrote in an editorial.

One of the most comprehensive official takes from Iran's security apparatus which was badly bludgeoned in the June conflict, the article doubled down on an official narrative that Tehran had triumphed and pledged greater future accomplishments.

Another Israeli attack is highly unlikely, it added, warning that concerns in Iran of renewed hostility in Iran was unhelpful speculation.

“Iran’s missile arsenal remains intact, and some of its most destructive missiles haven’t even been used yet. Any new war would mean greater destruction in Israeli-occupied territories,” the article said.

'Regime change failed'

Israel launched a surprise military campaign on June 13 targeting military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and killing hundreds of civilians. In response, Iranian missile strikes killed 29 Israeli civilians.

According to an Iranian government spokesperson, 1,062 Iranians were killed during the conflict, including 786 military personnel and 276 civilians.

The United States capped off the conflict with attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow with long-range bombers and submarine-launched missiles on June 22. Washington brokered a ceasefire on June 24.

Tasnim also warned that some media outlets and social media users continue to raise the alarm about another imminent Israeli attack. However, it argued that Israel’s core objective “regime change in Iran” had failed.

“In the recent war, Israel bet heavily on political and social collapse in Iran, expecting the public to turn against the Islamic Republic. But what actually happened was the complete opposite of their expectations,” the article said.

In response to the attacks on its nuclear facilities, Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), conditioning any future engagement on new terms.

Iran’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that the UN nuclear watchdog must clarify how it intends to inspect nuclear sites bombed by Israel and the United States.

Israel not positioned for a second attack

The article contended that Israel’s surprise attack was the result of years of intelligence preparation, and that replicating such an operation would require years more planning.

“After decades of intelligence gathering and planning, Israel attempted to catch Iran off guard, assassinating commanders, disabling defense systems and aiming for a swift decapitation strike,” the report said.

“It did kill several high-ranking military officials and nuclear scientists, but failed to achieve its main goal: the collapse of Iran’s political and social structure and its defense systems,” Tasnim added.

Among those killed during the war were several senior IRGC commanders, including Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh and IRGC Deputy for Operations Mehdi Rabbani.

“Israel gambled everything on this surprise attack but lost. Rebuilding its intelligence network will now take years, meaning Israel is not logically positioned to mount another assault,” the report said.

An Iranian analyst said in July that Israel had hacked Iran’s entire air defense system during the war and that more than 100 Iranian missile launchers exploded upon activation.

“Israel has already lost a war it spent decades preparing for. With exposed defense systems, internal political chaos, and Iran growing stronger and more united, a second act of aggression would not only fail, but would bring even more devastating consequences,” Tasnim added.

“They are seeking to disarm the resistance in Lebanon, but they will take that wish to the grave,” said Iraj Masjedi, deputy coordinator of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, according to Iranian media.

“Resistance forces remain fully prepared and equipped, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is completely ready for any scenario,” he added.

Masjedi's remarks followed Beirut’s announcement Tuesday that the Lebanese army would be tasked with collecting weapons from groups operating outside the state’s command.

Lebanon's cabinet instructed the army to develop a plan by the end of the year aimed at creating a state monopoly on weapons—an implicit challenge to Hezbollah, which has resisted disarmament since last year’s war with Israel.

Hezbollah decried the move as a "grave sin" and vowed to ignore it.

The Lebanese government has long been under international pressure to assert monopoly over arms, particularly from Western states who view Iran-backed Hezbollah’s military structure as a parallel force within the state.

Israel, Armed Forces General Staff spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi said on Thursday, aimed to undermine the Iran-backed network of armed groups in the region.

“The Zionist regime is attempting to alter regional equations, but the resistance front stands firm,” Shekarchi said, naming Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen’s Houthis, Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi and other groups as active components of what he called a growing axis.