Iran International
Iran will lose its ongoing conflict with Israel and its nuclear program, President Trump’s former Iran envoy and prominent neoconservative Elliott Abrams told Eye for Iran, as the conflict between the two countries entered its second week.
"I really think this is going to end by a negotiation,” said Abrams, who served as US Special Representative for Iran from 2020 to 2021.
"They're going to lose this nuclear weapons program, and the question is whether they do it the hard way or the easy way."
Even if the Islamic Republic refuses to surrender, Abrams said more Israeli strikes—followed by a possible US attack targeting an underground nuclear facility—would eventually lead to negotiations, much the way talks settled the Iran–Iraq war.
Eliminating the underground Fordow site in central Iran would likely hinder Tehran’s ability to quickly rebuild its nuclear program but it may not necessarily prevent it from using suspected secret sites to produce nuclear weapons, a prominent nuclear expert said this week.
According to Richard Nephew, a former negotiator during the Obama administration, the United States and Israel must acknowledge that Fordow is not the only pathway for an Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Iran, he argued in a Washington Institute thinktank report, may have other centrifuges available, including at secret sites, and is “probably already at work.”
For his part, Abrams said Fordow is essential to Iran’s program and a necessary military objective, but not a total solution without a broader diplomatic or military campaign.
Abrams was a prominent advocate of preemptive military action against Iraq during George W. Bush’s presidency.
Weapons of mass destruction alleged to be held by Baghdad were never found and the invasion led to a civil war which killed several thousand US troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis.
Trump’s two-week window is ‘strategic’
"Khamenei will soon have that choice: preserve the regime—or risk its collapse under American attack," said Abrams.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to authorize a military strike on Iran.
Trump has previously given himself two-week deadlines on other major decisions—particularly related to the Russia–Ukraine war—and then failed to meet them.
Questions about how Trump will handle the conflict between Israel and Iran have swirled over the last week, and the president has yet to give a straight answer.
Based on Abrams' tenure as Trump’s Iran envoy, he sees this two-week window as a psychological negotiating tactic to throw his adversaries off balance.
It also provides the president with time to explore more options, he added, to see where negotiations may head, and to assess what Israel can accomplish on its own inside Iran.
If Israel is unable to destroy Iran’s fortified Fordow nuclear facility, Abrams believes Trump will likely order a US airstrike using bunker-buster bombs, without deploying troops. That window also allows the US to position its military assets and to give Iran a final chance to negotiate.
“He is moving planes and ships, particularly aircraft carriers and carrier task forces from far away into the Gulf area, the Eastern Mediterranean area, and it takes a week or 10 days,” Abrams told Eye for Iran. “So I don't read into this that he's decided not to do anything.”
“It's a way of giving yourself options until the very last minute.”
Trump’s inner circle
During his tenure as special representative on Iran, Abrams viewed influencing trusted inner-circle figures—like Pompeo during Trump’s first term—as the most effective way to shape Trump's decisions.
Trump’s decision-making is shaped by a small group of trusted advisors, not outside pressure or foreign leaders. Those around him—especially top generals and intelligence officials—play a key role in what happens next.
Currently, his trusted circle, according to Abrams, includes Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Generals Kane and Kurilla, and CIA Director Ratcliffe—all of whom remain deeply committed to preventing a nuclear Iran.
“I think he's paying a lot of attention to these two top generals—General Kane, who's the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Kurilla, who's the head of CENTCOM, both very experienced four-star generals,” Abrams said.
The generals do not make their opinions known, but from what Abrams gathers, they tend to have a more aggressive stance on Iran and its proxies.
As tensions escalate and the clock on Trump’s two-week window ticks down, all eyes are on Fordow—and on Tehran’s next moves.
In the wake of mass evacuations from Tehran and other cities, a wave of grassroots support has emerged.
Iranians across social media are offering shelter, food, and medical help. Families far from the strikes are hosting refugees, doctors are providing free virtual consultations, and volunteers are caring for the elderly, infirm, and even abandoned pets.
“This is the least I can do now,” wrote Yasser Saiedy, an Iranian cardiologist based in Germany, offering remote consultations on X.
Others share stories of restraint—people letting others buy bread first, rationing water, making sure no one is left behind. Acts of solidarity, unfolding in the shadow of devastation.
A war without warning
Israeli airstrikes have hit Tehran and other cities with little or no notice, drawing criticism from many Iranians and some international observers.
One strike on Tehran’s District 18, near Mehrabad Airport, came just over an hour after a 2:00 AM warning. Activists noted the area’s high population of child laborers and street children.
“Under no circumstances is the death of children justifiable,” wrote Hamed Farmand of the International Coalition for Children with Incarcerated Parents. “Just as the death and starvation of Palestinian children has no name other than murder and genocide.”
Iranian authorities have also faced criticism for failing to sound sirens, issue warnings or war-time guidelines through state media.
“It still hasn’t occurred to anyone to sound a siren or even issue a radio warning,” Tehran resident Sahar Karimi posted on X. “Ordinary people are dying, nobody cares?”
The government has released no official death toll, but rights groups report over 320 civilian deaths, including dozens of children.
Outrage and despair
The Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) condemned the violence on Wednesday, denouncing “the deliberate targeting of civilians” and calling for an immediate ceasefire and a path to diplomacy.
London-based human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr called Israel’s evacuation warnings a form of forced displacement.
“The forcible displacement of a civilian population is a crime against humanity under international law. Full stop,” she wrote.
Frustration deepened after US President Donald Trump urged people to evacuate Tehran—a suggestion many called detached from reality.
Nobel Peace Laureate Narges Mohammadi responded promptly, reminding those ordering people to flee that Tehran is not only home to millions of people, but thousands of schools, hospitals, and businesses.
“Which of them are we meant to carry on our shoulders to save from death and devastation,” she asked in an Instagram post. “Do not destroy my city. End this war.”
No side feels like home
As the war drags on, many Iranians—at home and in exile—say they can’t side with either party to the conflict.
“This was not our war,” Sadr wrote, “but it is increasingly becoming ours, as our loved ones are being taken hostage by two criminal states.”
In the early days, some Iranians welcomed the strikes, hoping for a quick end to the regime.
“You know what is the worst nightmare of every Iranian now,” an exiled activist posted on X, “that US and Israel, having started this destruction, do not finish it, leaving the people of Iran to the hard and brutal days that the Islamic Republic will unleash upon us once it is over.”
In Tehran—in the midst of it all—perspective and tone is slightly different.
“They thought it would end with (supreme leader Ali) Khamenei’s death and the regime collapsing,” Abbas, a 46-year-old office worker in Tehran, says in a message on an encrypted app. “But as war drags on, they’ll realize that that was never a priority for Israel.”
IRIB is seen by many not just as biased, but as a tool of repression—tied to psychological coercion, disinformation, and forced confessions.
“I’m filled with bizarre emotions about the destruction of IRIB,” wrote former political prisoner Nazila Maroofian on X.
She recalled being taken from Evin Prison, at 22, to IRIB’s headquarters and forced to record a confession.
“They sat me in front of the camera. ‘Say you were paid by Israel’—cut. ‘Say you were paid by the US’—cut. ‘Say you were instigated and now regret it’—cut,” she wrote.“But the video wasn’t aired because I was weeping the entire time.”
Programs like the 8:30 Special News Bulletin regularly air such confessions. The show has featured jailed activists, protesters, and even foreign nationals like French citizens Cecile Kohler and Jacques Paris.
In some cases, families of protesters killed by security forces were pressured to claim their loved ones died by suicide or illness.
The program’s producers, Ameneh Sadat Zabihpour and Ali Rezvani, were sanctioned by the United States in 2023 for working with intelligence agencies to stage confessions.
‘A dream came true’
“The strike was what all of us fantasized to bring upon this brutal, lie-ridden organization,” a user with the handle @_Alone_Crony posted on X. “I’m glad our dream came true.”
“A number of IRIB employees have sadly lost their lives due to underlying health conditions, falls from heights, and suicides caused by mental health issues,” another user, @ayazi_kamran, wrote, mocking state denials of violence.
Still, some warned of the precedent.
“I believe the state radio and television are damaging to the country. But that’s one thing—and Israel’s attack on the organization is another,” journalist Ehsan Bodaghi posted.“Today they say it was a military-linked media site; tomorrow they’ll use the same logic for hospitals, schools, sports clubs. Exactly like Gaza.”
A broadcast interrupted
The strike came about an hour after Israel’s defense ministry posted a warning on X, urging residents of Tehran’s upscale District 3 to evacuate. Israel’s military said the target was a facility used “to advance military operations under civilian activity.”
Among the most dramatic moments was the live broadcast by anchor Sahar Emami, reading a statement just as the building was struck.“What you heard,” she improvised, “is the sound of the aggressor [attacking], the sound of the aggressor that has attacked the truth.”Her delivery as dust filled the studio made her an instant hero for the government and its supporters—who called her a “lioness.”
Moments later, she had to flee live on air. The clip went viral—almost instantly iconic—and triggered a wave of mostly celebratory reactions online.
Echoes and aftermath
“I’m delighted because the IRIB was not the people's voice. It was the voice of those who rule,” said one viewer in a recorded message sent to Iran International within hours of the attack.
“Maybe now, with their propaganda apparatus and abominable voice silenced, they’ll feel the pain we felt—those of us with no voice and nowhere to be heard.”
“The IRIB is loathed by all Iranians except for a small percentage,” a user named Fatemeh Vallinia posted on X. “People would rejoice no matter who targeted it—whether it was a bolt from the sky or a strike from this usurping attacker!”
Despite the damage, literal and figurative, the state’s propaganda machine remains intact.
The day after the strike, state and IRGC-affiliated media aired a video of an alleged Mossad agent arrested in Alborz Province. The man claimed he had trained for ten years and built explosives in his workshop before being captured.
The two sources still viewed joint action alongside the United States as the most likely scenario, within 48-72 hours at most.
An attack could be underway as early Friday night, the sources added, but Israel is also weighing going it alone to avoid losing the military advantage it has gained this week.
“In order for us to force Iran into concessions it would otherwise not make, and to bring it back to the negotiating table, this is the only way; we need the US to take action," an Israeli intelligence source told Iran International on condition of anonymity.
"We need Trump to do this within the next two to three days," one source added. "Trump is extremely unpredictable right now though, so anything could happen.”
Buried deep underground, the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility has remained untouched so far in the ongoing Israeli military campaign which appeared to take Iran by surprise in the early hours of last Friday morning.
Window closing
The window of opportunity to knock out the site was closing, the second Israeli security source said, and Israel had been planning for an attack for months.
“Until now the IDF (Israeli military) has opened up the flight path to Iran and the skies are open but that will be for a limited time, it can’t go on indefinitely,” he told Iran International on condition of anonymity.
“Therefore, if America decides to get involved, it has to be a decision made as fast as possible otherwise the opportunity will be missed.”
As the war begins to impact the global economy, including the soaring price of oil, the source said world powers could quickly lose patience with the conflict.
“There are economic issues at stake, so for example if oil prices spike, then these countries could be involved due to their own economic interests. So in general, America has to take this opportunity within 48-72 hours.”
The reach and strength of Israel's bombers are more limited compared to their American peers, making an attack on Fordow by Israeli forces alone more complex.
“Israel doesn’t have the heavy B-52 capabilities to drop a 14-ton bomb to penetrate the heart of the Iranian atomic sites that have to be destroyed,” the security source said.
Israel’s F-15s travel nearly 2,000 kilometers with far smaller payloads of around 400 kilograms, the source added. "Do the math. America could do that mission within a few days, but for us, it would be a much longer, more complex operation."
Destroying the Fordow enrichment facility requires a US military asset never been used in war, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
Known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the GBU-57 is designed to tear through 200 feet of mountain rock before exploding. The United States has around 20, the newspaper reported, delivered via B-2 stealth bombers.
In the White House on Wednesday, Trump maintained studied ambiguity. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he told reporters.
Iain Overton, the Executive Director of Action on Armed Violence, told Iran International that despite the heavy blows taken, Tehran could opt to fight on.
“Iran may lack parity in conventional military terms, but it possesses a distributed deterrent capability: armed proxies across the region, cyber warfare expertise, and a long-honed ideological machinery that frames death not as loss but as victory," he said.
"If the Ayatollah’s regime interprets US involvement as existential, it will not capitulate. It will escalate.”
