Ex-CENTCOM chief questions Israel's ability to cripple Iran nuclear program

According to the ministry’s confidential annual report obtained by Iran International, diesel consumption in March 2025—the final month of the Iranian calendar year—hit a record 146 million liters per day, exceeding national production by 30 million liters.

The surge was largely driven by a severe and ongoing shortage of natural gas, which forced power plants and heavy industry to burn more diesel and fuel oil (mazut) to meet energy demands.

Diesel use rose 16% year-on-year in March, while production grew by just 1%. Daily mazut consumption also climbed 30%.

Despite holding the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, Iran has faced persistent shortages since last year, especially during the winter months. The government’s failure to expand gas output has pushed annual mazut consumption up.

In total, Iran consumed 57 billion liters of mazut and diesel in the last year—roughly 1.28 million barrels per day. More than a third was used for power generation while the rest was absorbed by the industrial and transportation sectors.

Barter deals and toxic additives

Gasoline consumption also rose by almost 8% in a year.

To make up the shortfall, the government imported nearly 5 billion liters of gasoline and diesel over the past year, doubling the volume of fuel imports compared to the year before.

With cash and resources constrained by sanctions, Iran has leaned heavily on barter to meet fuel demand—trading part of its mazut exports for gasoline and diesel, particularly with the United Arab Emirates.

The report notes that of the 290,000 barrels per day of mazut exported last year, 40% was bartered for refined fuel, while the rest was sold to the UAE, China and other Asian buyers.

The report also sheds light on gasoline quality, revealing that Iran does not produce any gasoline that fully meets international standards.

Around 80% fails to comply with Euro 4 or Euro 5 benchmarks. The rest, labeled as “Euro gasoline,” contains the petrochemical additive MTBE (methyl tert-butyl ether), which is banned in many countries due to environmental and health risks.

Public spin versus internal figures

Iran continues to blend 2 million liters of MTBE into its gasoline daily.

Refinery output rose by 4.5% to 101 million liters per day, but the government raised that to 121 million by adding 20 million liters of MTBE and other chemical additives—a fourfold increase in additive use in recent years.

In March, Mohammad Sadegh Azimifar, CEO of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, said diesel output had risen by the equivalent of a 300,000-barrel-per-day refinery and that fuel production had increased by 11% overall.

However, the Oil Ministry’s internal report contradicts these statements, showing actual growth was closer to one-third of what Azimifar posited.

The discrepancy reflects a broader pattern of officials overstating achievements to project control despite mounting evidence that Iran’s energy crisis is worsening.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff privately told Republican Senators last week that Iran could hit Israel with a mass casualty attack if the Jewish State strikes its nuclear sites, Axios reported citing a US official and a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

In a briefing last Thursday with the lawmakers, Witkoff said an Israeli military intervention was possible if US-Iran nuclear talks failed.

Witkoff cited Israel's ballistic missile capabilities, Axios reported, and said Israeli air defenses might be overwhelmed by an attack involving hundreds of missiles which could cause massive casualties and damage.

Speaking at White House press conference, Trump said an Israeli attack on Iran was possible but that he hoped for a negotiated solution to the nuclear impasse.

Responding to reporter's question, Trump said, "Well I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen."

"I'd love to avoid a conflict. Iran's going to have to ... give us some things that they're not willing to give us right now," Trump said. Tehran and Washington remain at loggerheads over whether Iran can keep enriching uranium on its own soil.

Trump added the two sides are "fairly close to a pretty good agreement," but struck an ambivalent note about the impact of a potential Israeli strike.

"As long as I think there is an agreement, I don't want them (Israel) going in, because I think that would blow it. Might help it actually, but it also could blow it."

Israel is weighing a potential attack on Iran within days, ABC News reported on Thursday citing three sources familiar with the situation.

The network cited the sources as saying they were unaware of any specific US role but added it was possible the United States could share intelligence or support logistics.

A sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks is due to convene in the Omani capital Muscat on Sunday, in what could be a decisive moment for the war-weary region.

Trump on Thursday cited the possibility of a potential "massive conflict" in the region for drawing down US personnel from the Middle East, a day after US officials said the embassy in Baghdad would be partially evacuated.

"There's a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said we've got to tell them to get out, because something could happen soon," Trump said. "I don't want to be the one that didn't give any warning and missiles are flying into their buildings."

"He's going to drag us into a war"

Iranian rhetoric had ratcheted up on Wednesday as Defense Minister Aziz Nassirzadeh said Tehran would strike American bases in the region if nuclear negotiations fail and conflict breaks out.

"Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don't come to fruition. If a conflict is imposed on us... all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries," Nassirzadeh said during a press conference.

Iranian officials also bristled at a resolution passed against it at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Thursday finding Tehran non-compliant with proliferation obligations.

The move put the Islamic Republic further at odds with the United Nations nuclear watchdog which inspects its nuclear facilities and would be a key player in any deal.

Meanwhile a prominent Democratic lawmaker urged the US Defense Secretary not to allow Israel to embroil the United States in a conflict and unsuccessfully sought to extract a pledge from Pete Hegseth not to strike Iran unless attacked.

"Will you commit to us not bombing (Iran) ... unless we're directly hit?" California representative Ro Khanna asked at a House hearing on Thursday.

"Would you agree ... that Netanyahu is itching for a fight? If Netanyahu uses American missiles to hit Iran, he's going to drag us into a war there," Khanna added.

The remarks were a rare public intervention by a Democratic lawmaker on Trump's Iran policy.

Hegseth said Trump sought peace but understood what he called the Iranian threat.

"The President has been earnestly and completely committed to a peace process. He's given Iran every opportunity, those talks are ongoing, but he also fully recognizes the threat that Iran poses."

"We are fairly close to a pretty good agreement. It's got to be better than pretty good, though. I'd much prefer an agreement," US President Donald Trump told reporters in the White House on Thursday.

"As long as I think there is an agreement, I don't want them (Israel) going in, because I think that would blow it. Might help it actually, but it also could blow it. But we've had very good discussions with Iran. Whether or not we get there, I can't tell you, but it'll happen soon."

Trump cited the possibility of a potential "massive conflict" in the region for drawing down US personnel from the Middle East.

"There's a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said we've got to tell them to get out, because something could happen soon. And I don't want to be the one that didn't give any warning and missiles are flying into their buildings."

US President Donald Trump suggested at a White House press conference on Thursday that an Israeli attack on Iran was possible.

Responding to reporter's question, Trump said, "Well I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen."

"Look, it's very simple, it's not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. I want them to be tremendous. We'll help them be successful. We'll trade with them. We'll do whatever is necessary."

Trump said he aimed to avoid a conflict and sought peace.

"I'd love to avoid a conflict. Iran's going to have to negotiate a little bit tougher, meaning they're gonna have to give us some things that they're not willing to give us right now," Trump said.

"I've kept us out of wars ... I believe in peace through strength. We have the greatest military in the world."