State department sees Iran talks success even with enrichment red line
"The fifth round of the nuclear talks would not be happening if we didn't think that there was potential for it," US state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said on Thursday.
"Clearly we believe that we are going to succeed," she added. "Most of our leaders have who have spoken on it (have said talks are) about no enrichment, and the Iranians are (still) at that table. So they also understand what our position is, and they continue to go."
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday that nuclear talks with the United States will not result in an agreement if Washington insists on Iran halting its uranium enrichment.
“The American side says enrichment must stop in Iran, and if that is their goal, there will be no agreement,” Araghchi said.
He added that the negotiations have not yet reached the stage of securing US commitments or guarantees on lifting sanctions and that fundamental disagreements still exist.
“We will not give up our rights, and our nuclear program, including enrichment, must continue,” he said.
The United Nations has confirmed that it received a letter from Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warning of a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, said the letter was delivered to their office on Thursday morning and, as requested, will be shared with the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
Dujarric also pointed to the rising use of threatening rhetoric and the potential for escalating military activity, saying it was a common cause for concern.
Despite worsening energy shortages at home, Iran has increased its gas and electricity exports over the past year, official data shows.
The country has faced persistent shortfalls in both electricity and natural gas since early 2024. Many industries have been affected and may even come to halt, Iranian minister for industry Mohammad Atabak warned on Thursday.
Still, Iran’s gas exports to Turkey went up 5% in the year ending February 2025, according to latest data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK).
Electricity exports to Iraq rose by 6% in the same period, according to a recent report by Iran’s energy ministry. Iraq is also Iran’s second-largest gas customer, but no updated figures are available for gas exports to that country.
Profiting abroad, struggling at home
In its latest budget, the moderate administration of president Masoud Pezeshkian projects gas exports worth $5 billion.
Iran’s gas exports are dwarfed by domestic consumption. But the export revenues far exceed the domestic sales due to heavy subsidies of energy for Iranians.
The same pricing gap exists in the electricity sector. The government is struggling to fuel Iran’s power plants, but continues to sell electricity to higher-paying foreign buyers while industries at home face frequent power cuts.
A manager at a petrochemical plant in Tabriz, northwestern Iran, told Iran International that the factory loses power three days a week, with water cuts one day weekly.
“Running diesel generators isn’t viable either,” he said, “Industrial diesel now sells for 15,000 tomans a liter—about 50 times the subsidized rate for vehicles.”
Diesel prices set to rise
Iran’s government recently approved a three-tier pricing plan for vehicle diesel: a subsidized quota, a semi-subsidized tier, and a market-based rate aligned with production costs.
The current subsidized price is just 0.35 cents per liter. While final figures haven’t been released, the oil ministry estimates that diesel production costs run around 285,000 rials per liter—roughly 34 cents.
An oil ministry document obtained by Iran International shows diesel production grew by 3.5% last year, while consumption jumped 7.5%. Officials have filled the gap through fuel oil barter deals abroad.
Roughly half of Iran’s diesel goes to the transport sector; the rest fuels power plants, industry, and other infrastructure.
Industries told to import electricity
Curiously, officials in Tehran are now encouraging factories to import electricity.
“Large industrial users can import power from Turkey and Azerbaijan via existing cross-border grids,” deputy director of transmission at state utility Mohammad-Allah Daad said on Tuesday.
But with domestic electricity priced far below international levels, this solution appears economically unfeasible for most industries. Rising energy costs are expected to push factory prices even higher—further fueling inflation.
A decade ago, Turkey and Azerbaijan imported electricity from Iran. Today, both countries have become net exporters thanks to rapid investment in solar and wind energy.
Imports may not be a solution
An investigation by Iran International found that Iran’s infrastructure allows for importing just 850 megawatts (MW) from neighboring countries. Yet the country faces a seasonal shortfall of up to 25,000 MW in summer and 15,000 MW in winter.
Even using the full import capacity would cover barely 3.4% of the summer gap.
To illustrate the scale of the problem: if Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia diverted all their current exports—roughly 3 terawatt-hours annually—to Iran, it still wouldn’t be enough to meaningfully offset the deficit.
Natural gas poses an even bigger challenge.
Over the past three years, Iran’s electricity and gas output have grown by just 2% annually—while consumption has surged more than threefold, driven by population growth, subsidies, and inefficiency.
The Trump administration is concerned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could take action against Iran’s nuclear program without first securing approval from President Donald Trump, Axios reported citing a a US official.
Tensions are mounting among Iran's conservative factions as supporters of the Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and his ultra-hardline rivals engage in an escalating war of words ahead of a key leadership vote.
A vote for the parliament's presidium is due to be held on May 27 to chose the speaker, his two deputies and six secretaries. The officials are key to running parliament, managing its sessions and deciding what to put on its agenda.
In a social media post on Tuesday, pro-Ghalibaf journalist Mahdi Yamini accused lawmakers from the Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and its allies of plotting against Ghalibaf ahead of the vote.
“A group of Paydari Party lawmakers … have started moves and meetings to lay the groundwork and make preparations for a coup against Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf ... Power struggle to the very gates of hell...!!!” he declared.
Ultra-hardliners’ criticism of Ghalibaf has intensified following his transmission of the controversial Palermo legislation to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration for enforcement on Wednesday.
The law, conditionally approved by the Expediency Council on May 14 after years of delay, enables Iran to join the Palermo Convention—a key step toward removing the country from the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) black list.
Ultra-hardliners, often referred to as super-revolutionaries, oppose the move, arguing that compliance with FATF requirements would undermine Iran’s ability to support regional allies and bypass international sanctions.
“Signing off on the Palermo Act means exposing all the financial networks we've used to circumvent sanctions,” wrote hardline activist Hadi Naseh in a post on X.
They accuse Ghalibaf—who opposed the Palermo and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) conventions in 2019—of hypocrisy and betraying the national interest.
“What do you think happened that (the Palermo legislation) is now considered to benefit (Iran)?” ultra-hardliner politician Ali-Akbar Raefipour asked in a post on X citing Ghalibaf’s previous objection to joining these conventions.
Ghalibaf’s supporters argue that he was legally obliged to send the legislation to the administration for enforcement regardless of his personal stance.
“Understanding this doesn’t require any special genius as it is an established fact, Ghalibaf supporter and a former ally of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad posted on X.
'Law of Satan'
Despite the Supreme National Security Council's decision to temporarily postpone its implementation to avoid public backlash, ultra-hardliners have also condemned Ghalibaf for failing to forward a controversial new hijab enforcement law to the administration.
The legislation imposes harsh penalties—including fines and prison sentences—on women who fail to observe strict hijab rules and on businesses that do not enforce them.
Some Iranian media outlets such as Donya-ye Eghtesad predict another term as speaker for Ghalibaf despite the ultra-hardliners’ campaign against him.
Defeating ultra-hardliner Mojtaba Zolnouri, he won last year’s presidium vote with 198 out of 287 ballots. This was down from 234 in 2022 and 210 in 2023.
A hardliner who occasionally adopts pragmatic positions, Ghalibaf has served as speaker for five years but his grip on parliamentary leadership weakened after he fell behind three ultra-hardliner candidates in the March 2023 elections.
The former IRGC-commander won 447,000 votes in an elections marked by voter apathy, particularly in Tehran, where Mahmoud Nabavian became first with 597,000 votes out of a possible 7.7 miilon eligibles---the least for a Tehran frontrunner in all elections since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
