Iran has no clear backup if nuclear talks fail, three Iranian sources tell Reuters

The United States is in no position to launch a new war despite its recent threats toward the Islamic Republic, said Hamidreza Taraqqi, a senior member of Iran’s Motalefeh Party.

“They are not people of war, because their conditions do not allow them to start another conflict,” he said.

Taraqqi accused US officials of using public threats to influence global opinion; while “privately recognizing they lack the power to deny Iran its rights.”

He added that regional countries fear a new war, except Israel, which he said, "depends on war for survival."

In an article titled “Building a new reality for the region: Toward stability, sovereignty and solidarity in West Asia,” Araghchi painted a sobering picture of mounting challenges in the region, including protracted conflicts, environmental degradation, and humanitarian crises.

He argued that externally imposed security arrangements have repeatedly failed to deliver long-term stability.“The people of this region have paid the price for policies that were drafted without their consent or participation,” he wrote.

The top Iranian diplomat said the current geopolitical disorder is rooted in decades of unresolved conflicts, worsened by foreign interference.

He warned that issues like water scarcity, refugee displacement, and economic fragility are shared threats requiring regional cooperation rather than competitive power politics.

“Security in West Asia must no longer be treated as a zero-sum game,” Araghchi stressed. “It should be a collective endeavor based on mutual respect and inclusive dialogue.”

However, he warned that no regional security architecture would be complete without addressing the role of Israel, which he accused of persistent destabilization and operating outside international disarmament norms.

“A regime that systematically violates international law and enjoys unchecked military privilege cannot be part of any sustainable security framework,” Araghchi said, citing Israel’s nuclear ambiguity and history of regional military activity.

Araghchi called for West Asia to embrace a “homegrown paradigm of security” rooted in shared sovereignty and common prosperity, inviting global powers to support, rather than dictate, this transition.

“The future of West Asia will not be written in distant capitals,” he concluded. “It will be authored by the peoples of the region, based on frameworks reflecting their histories, cultures, and collective will.”

Araghchi’s article comes as indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the United States appear stalled, with both sides holding firm on uranium enrichment — a key sticking point each describes as a red line.

It also comes in the wake of a weakening of some of Iran's key military allies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and allied groups in Syria, once a military stronghold for Tehran under the presidency of ousted President Bashar al Assad.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the United States of "global plunder and hypocrisy" during a speech to parliament on Wednesday, responding to remarks by Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia.

“The master thieves of the planet who rob every country now accuse others,” he said. Pezeshkian said Iran is branded a “terrorist state simply for resisting Western exploitation.”

“They came here to plunder,” he added.

Citing intelligence sources, the report said that among the military preparations the US has observed are the movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise.

Additionally, CNN said intelligence had come from intercepted Israeli communications.

A source close to US intelligence told CNN that “the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months and the prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”

In a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for the resolution of a new nuclear deal to replace the JCPOA from which Trump left during his first presidency in 2018.

According to a source familiar with the communication, CNN reported that it has now been more than 60 days since that letter was delivered, and about 40 days since the first round of talks began.

Trump warned that there will be “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before” before the talks commenced.

However, after the fourth round of Oman-mediated negotiations, Khamenei on Tuesday said the discussions look likely to fail as the US insists that Iran stops all uranium enrichment.

"Saying things like 'we won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium' is way out of line," he said. "We do not think (the talks) would yield results now."

Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching uranium to 60% U-235, a level that causes "serious concern," according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.

The IAEA has consistently maintained that there is no credible civilian use for uranium enriched to this level, which is a short technical step from weapons-grade 90% fissile material. Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium had increased to 275 kg, enough to theoretically make about half a dozen weapons if Iran further enriches the uranium.

Speaking to CNN, Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region said that the talks have put Israel “between a rock and a hard place” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now waits for Trump’s next moves.

“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” Panikoff said, stressing that even Netanyahu would not be as bold as to act without tacit US approval.

Iran's air defenses were significantly weakened after Israeli bombings in October, though the country's top military commander announced renewed air defense systems this week.

The US intelligence source told CNN: “I think it’s more likely they [Israel] strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal. The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us … both publicly and privately.”

A previous CNN report showed that according to a US intelligence assessment from February, Israel could use either military aircraft or long-range missiles to capitalize on Iran’s degraded air defense capabilities after the October strikes.

In the same month, US intelligence agencies issued warnings that Israel will likely attempt to strike facilities key to Iran’s nuclear program this year.

It has “consistently been the Israeli position that the military option is the only option to stopping Iran’s military nuclear program,” one US official told CNN.

The attacker, identified as Yasin Hoseinzadeh, stormed the embassy in January 2023, armed with a Kalashnikov rifle.

He broke through the security post and opened fire, killing the head of the embassy’s security service, Orkhan Asgarov, and injuring two others — Vasif Taghiyev and Mahir Imanov — who tried to stop the attack, according to APA.

At the time, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev condemned the attack on social media, calling it a “terrorist act” and “unacceptable.”

Iranian authorities said the attacker acted on a personal motive, believing his wife was inside the embassy and refusing to see him.

He was sentenced to death for murder, illegal possession of firearms, and disturbing public order. The Supreme Court upheld the verdict, and the sentence was carried out on Wednesday morning.

The attack led to the suspension of Azerbaijan’s embassy operations in Iran. Diplomatic staff and their families were evacuated shortly after the incident, and the mission only resumed work at a new location in July last year following negotiations between the two countries.

Relations between the two neighbours have been tense, with Azerbaijan accusing Iran of mistreating its ethnic Azeri population, and Tehran expressing concern over Baku’s close ties with Israel and possible regional border shifts following the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.