Iran expresses skepticism over upcoming US talks - Reuters

The Iranian side, as reiterated by government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, maintains that Araghchi’s upcoming talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Oman will be conducted indirectly. However, Mohajerani did not explicitly rule out the possibility of direct negotiations, noting that Araghchi will lead Iran’s nuclear negotiating team as its highest-ranking official.

Both Araghchi and foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei had previously denied any negotiations were taking place—until Trump’s surprise Monday evening announcement during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu changed the calculus.

Shahram Kholdi, a Middle East and international relations expert, told Iran International TV that Iran’s insistence on indirect talks stems from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s stance that direct negotiations with the US would be dishonorable.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), offered a different interpretation. In a post on X, he suggested that Tehran may have been caught off guard by Trump’s announcement. According to Brodsky, the announcement was likely meant “to pressure Tehran and make it look unreasonable should it reject the meeting.” He added that indirect negotiations might still occur on Saturday, but both sides would be creative in defining what counts as direct or indirect.

Meanwhile, Nour News, a website close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, dismissed suggestions that Iran was responding to US pressure. In a post on X, the outlet stated that Iran had set the time and location of the talks in Oman and communicated them to the US through Omani intermediaries. “No one-sided narratives—the initiative was in Tehran's hands,” the post read.

Ali Nasri, a Tehran-based foreign relations expert, criticized the ongoing obsession with terminology. “The bias regarding the words ‘direct’ or ‘indirect’ in the matter of negotiations does not benefit the lives of the Iranian people,” he wrote on X. “What matters is whether the negotiation process is effective or ineffective. Whichever method is more effective in securing national interests is the right path.”

Hossein Mousavian, Iran’s ex-ambassador to Germany (1990–1997) and a former senior nuclear negotiator, offered a historical analogy. In an X post, he recalled how negotiations during the Obama administration in Istanbul began under the supervision of EU’s supervision Catherine Ashton but soon transitioned to direct talks between Iranian and American officials. He predicted a similar setup in Oman. “It seems that Washington and Tehran have adopted a wise approach, and there is a chance for an agreement. Both negotiators [Witkoff and Araghchi] are capable, experienced, moderate, and wise,” he wrote.

Reza Nasri, another political commentator, argued that Iran has strategic reasons to consider negotiating with Trump. “Biden couldn’t deliver due to internal weakness and fear of the anti-Iran lobbies. Obama reached a deal, but Republicans killed it. Ironically, Trump may be the only U.S. president strong enough to defy the establishment, bypass Washington’s foreign policy elite, and strike a deal that actually lasts,” he posted on X.

The Iranian market has responded favorably to the prospect of talks, whether direct or indirect. Tehran’s Stock Exchange (TSE) rose by 59,000 points, reaching 2.8 million, while the rial rebounded slightly from last week’s record low, climbing to around 960,000 per dollar from 1,050,000.

Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) would have taken two decades to achieve, if at all, had it relied on indirect negotiations, highlighting the necessity of direct talks with foreign ministers.

"If the JCPOA negotiations were to be indirect, we would not have reached the JCPOA in two years, let alone twenty years," Rouhani said in comments reported by Iranian news outlet Entekhab. He emphasized that direct engagement with foreign ministers was crucial to the agreement.

Rouhani, who was president during the JCPOA talks, acknowledged that the current circumstances surrounding potential negotiations with the United States are different and require a different strategy.

"We hope that with the efforts of the esteemed 14th government and the guidance of the Supreme Leader, we will achieve results and remove the shadow of war from the country and succeed in the negotiations. The issue of economic sanctions is important for our region and country," Rouhani added.

Russia said on Tuesday that it would not be obligated to provide military assistance to Iran in the event of a US military attack, while emphasizing its commitment to de-escalating regional tensions.

Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told Russian media that a potential US strike on Iran would have severe consequences for the Middle East.

However, Rudenko stressed that while Moscow would work to resolve any conflict and ease tensions, a military alliance with Tehran did not necessitate Russian military intervention in such a scenario.

"In the case of a US attack on Iran, Moscow would not be obligated to provide military assistance to Tehran, but would take all measures to resolve the conflict and eliminate tensions," Rudenko was quoted as saying.

“The AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) also indicates that Iran’s uranium reserves are much larger than previously estimated,” said the 2014 biennial Red Book report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency' published Tuesday.

It added that Iran planned to operate six more uranium mines by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Iran could increase its ore production by almost four times, reaching 71 tons this year, according to the report.

In addition to the current Ardakan uranium production facility in Yazd Province, feasibility studies are underway for the development of the Narigan production center, also located in the same province.

Iran has always maintained that its uranium enrichment activities are for peaceful purposes. However, last year, the US-based Institute for Science and International Security said that while Iran's uranium resources could support a nuclear weapons arsenal, they are insufficient to fuel its growing nuclear power reactors.

Last month, the UN nuclear watchdog found that Iran's stock of near-bomb-grade uranium rose to levels which in principle could be refined further into the equivalent of six nuclear bombs.

Iran’s nuclear program remains a focal point of international tensions, particularly following Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the imposition of economic sanctions.

The United States, meanwhile, has reinstated its "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, with President Donald Trump insisting that Tehran must never acquire nuclear weapons and has threatened military action against the country should it fail to reach a deal on its nuclear program.

Trump on Monday said that Tehran and Washington have begun direct talks over Iran's nuclear program and will hold a "very big meeting" at a senior level on Saturday.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif expressed optimism on Tuesday regarding upcoming indirect talks between Iran and the United States, urging the US delegation to demonstrate the same determination as their Iranian counterparts.

In an X post referencing current Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who will lead the Iranian team in the Oman discussions, Zarif said, “The Iranian delegation, led by FM Araghchi, has already proven its capability and determination to reach mutually beneficial agreements.

Zarif, who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, added a note of caution and expectation for the US side.

"If the US team can exhibit the same qualities, a deal resulting in a better future is within reach," he said. “The ball is in US court.”