Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Amid the worsening economic crisis and deteriorating living conditions, the economic institutions of the Islamic Republic are attempting to present a picture of economic growth.
Mohammad Reza Farzin, the governor of Iran’s Central Bank, unveiled the institution’s new report at a press conference on March 13, presenting various charts to journalists and describing the country’s economic situation as undergoing "acceptable progress."
He even displayed a chart comparing Iran’s economic growth with countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Eurozone, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He tried to persuade the public that Iran's economic growth surpasses these countries, and only India and China show higher growth rates than Iran.
In fact, prices for essential goods have increased by an average of 100% since Iran’s currency began a steep dive in September 2024, and a severe energy shortage shut down many industries.
The surprising issue is that IMF’s estimates about Iran’s economic growth is based on the statistics provided by Iran’s Central Bank to this international entity. Given the opaque and securitized nature of the Islamic Republic’s economy, no international institution has an independent estimate of Iran’s GDP growth.
The another issue is that different institutions of the Islamic Republic even provide contradictory estimates of economic growth, which also starkly contradict other economic indicators.
For example, while Iran’s Statistics Center has reported the country’s GDP growth in the first nine months of the current fiscal year (starting March 21, 2024) at 3.1%, the Central Bank has put this figure at 3.7%.
Contradictions with other indicators
The economic growth rates reported by Iran’s Central Bank and Statistics Center are based on constant 2021 prices. However, their figures conflict with other key economic indicators.
For instance, the Statistics Center claims that the agricultural sector grew by 3.3% from March to December 2024. Yet, its own labor market data shows a steady decline in agricultural employment since 2021, with the sector's share of national employment dropping from 15.4% to 13.7%.
Customs data further challenges these growth claims, showing that Iran’s agricultural imports surged from $11.5 billion to nearly $18 billion over the same period. Meanwhile, agricultural exports, which account for only a third of that amount, have remained largely stagnant. Despite these indicators, the Central Bank reports an even higher agricultural growth rate of 3.7% for the first nine months of the fiscal year.
The natural gas sector presents another discrepancy. While official data from Iran’s Oil Ministry and the International Energy Agency (based on 2024 statistics) indicate that Iran’s gas production growth has remained below 2%, the Statistics Center reports a significantly higher 5.7% growth rate.
Similarly, the industrial sector data raises concerns. Industry insiders report that widespread electricity shortages in the summer and combined electricity and gas shortages in the autumn led to the shutdown of 30% to 40% of industrial capacity for months. Yet, the Central Bank claims that industrial output still managed to grow by 1% in the summer and 3.4% in the autumn.
Further complicating the picture, a previous Central Bank report submitted to the Iranian Parliament’s Research Center estimated industrial growth at 1.7% for the summer and 2.9% for the autumn—figures that contradict its latest claims.
Discrepancies in inflation data
These contradictions are not limited to economic growth estimates. Even inflation statistics from the Central Bank and the Statistics Center differ significantly. While the Central Bank has reported Iran’s 2024 inflation rate at 45%, the Statistics Center has placed this figure at 35%.
Even more surprisingly, the International Monetary Fund, relying on data from Iran’s Central Bank, has reported Iran's 2024 inflation rate below 30%.
The exact real inflation rate in the country remains unclear. However, recent domestic media reports, indicate a sharp doubling of prices for food items, medicines, and other essentials. Meanwhile, official entities estimate much lower figures for these items.
