Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Amid the worsening economic crisis and deteriorating living conditions, the economic institutions of the Islamic Republic are attempting to present a picture of economic growth.
Mohammad Reza Farzin, the governor of Iran’s Central Bank, unveiled the institution’s new report at a press conference on March 13, presenting various charts to journalists and describing the country’s economic situation as undergoing "acceptable progress."
He even displayed a chart comparing Iran’s economic growth with countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Eurozone, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He tried to persuade the public that Iran's economic growth surpasses these countries, and only India and China show higher growth rates than Iran.
In fact, prices for essential goods have increased by an average of 100% since Iran’s currency began a steep dive in September 2024, and a severe energy shortage shut down many industries.
The surprising issue is that IMF’s estimates about Iran’s economic growth is based on the statistics provided by Iran’s Central Bank to this international entity. Given the opaque and securitized nature of the Islamic Republic’s economy, no international institution has an independent estimate of Iran’s GDP growth.
The another issue is that different institutions of the Islamic Republic even provide contradictory estimates of economic growth, which also starkly contradict other economic indicators.
For example, while Iran’s Statistics Center has reported the country’s GDP growth in the first nine months of the current fiscal year (starting March 21, 2024) at 3.1%, the Central Bank has put this figure at 3.7%.
Contradictions with other indicators
The economic growth rates reported by Iran’s Central Bank and Statistics Center are based on constant 2021 prices. However, their figures conflict with other key economic indicators.
For instance, the Statistics Center claims that the agricultural sector grew by 3.3% from March to December 2024. Yet, its own labor market data shows a steady decline in agricultural employment since 2021, with the sector's share of national employment dropping from 15.4% to 13.7%.
Customs data further challenges these growth claims, showing that Iran’s agricultural imports surged from $11.5 billion to nearly $18 billion over the same period. Meanwhile, agricultural exports, which account for only a third of that amount, have remained largely stagnant. Despite these indicators, the Central Bank reports an even higher agricultural growth rate of 3.7% for the first nine months of the fiscal year.
The natural gas sector presents another discrepancy. While official data from Iran’s Oil Ministry and the International Energy Agency (based on 2024 statistics) indicate that Iran’s gas production growth has remained below 2%, the Statistics Center reports a significantly higher 5.7% growth rate.
Similarly, the industrial sector data raises concerns. Industry insiders report that widespread electricity shortages in the summer and combined electricity and gas shortages in the autumn led to the shutdown of 30% to 40% of industrial capacity for months. Yet, the Central Bank claims that industrial output still managed to grow by 1% in the summer and 3.4% in the autumn.
Further complicating the picture, a previous Central Bank report submitted to the Iranian Parliament’s Research Center estimated industrial growth at 1.7% for the summer and 2.9% for the autumn—figures that contradict its latest claims.
Discrepancies in inflation data
These contradictions are not limited to economic growth estimates. Even inflation statistics from the Central Bank and the Statistics Center differ significantly. While the Central Bank has reported Iran’s 2024 inflation rate at 45%, the Statistics Center has placed this figure at 35%.
Even more surprisingly, the International Monetary Fund, relying on data from Iran’s Central Bank, has reported Iran's 2024 inflation rate below 30%.
The exact real inflation rate in the country remains unclear. However, recent domestic media reports, indicate a sharp doubling of prices for food items, medicines, and other essentials. Meanwhile, official entities estimate much lower figures for these items.
The platform, designed to operate on domestic languages and remain functional even with internet disruptions, is slated for full release by March 2026, according to the Vice Presidency for Science, Technology and Knowledge-Based Economy.
"This platform is a living entity and must be constantly updated," said Vice-President Hossein Afshin, during the unveiling ceremony.
He outlined a phased rollout, with initial testing and optimization in 2025, followed by limited access for experts and knowledge-based companies, a public beta release, and the final version in March 2026.
Framing the project as a strategic move in a global "war of chips and algorithms.”
Afshin and other officials present in the ceremony cited the platform's open-source nature and domestic infrastructure as key advantages, which they said will ensure its functionality even under sanctions or internet disruptions.
"If they want to sanction us, Iran has already obtained this technology," Afshin said.
"We are moving forward with the world," said Hamidreza Rabiei, head of the Advanced Information and Communication Technology Research Institute. "We are not taking any API from any foreign platform, and if the internet is cut off, nothing will happen to the platform because we are connected to the national internet."
The project, involving nearly 100 researchers and experts, aims to address Iran's lagging AI development compared to regional peers.
"We do not have a good situation in AI indicators compared to the countries of the region," said Hossein Asadi, director of the Rapid Processing Center and Sharif University's representative in the project. He cited declining research articles and slow growth in AI-focused companies as evidence.
A key partner in Iran's new AI platform, Sharif University is under international sanctions for its involvement in military and ballistic missile projects. The university, which maintains close ties with the Ministry of Defense, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the IRGC Air Force, has faced sanctions from the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
A demo of the AI platform was unveiled during a visit of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to an exhibition called "Pioneers of Progress" in late January.
According to the creators, the platform's features include a GPU-based processing infrastructure, large language and multi-modal models, intelligent agents, and application layers for various industries.
The country’s first AI platform was unveiled a few months after a European Union report raised concerns about Iran's increasing reliance on AI-driven technologies for surveillance and suppression, highlighting the development of systems aimed at enforcing state control over digital information.
The report, titled "Artificial intelligence (AI) and human rights: Using AI as a weapon of repression and its impact on human rights," detailed how Iran is deploying AI-based tools to enhance its monitoring capabilities.
"Examples include the use of facial recognition technology during protests, the use of AI-driven bots and automated accounts to amplify content favorable to the regime, and the use of AI-based tools to produce content in different languages, in order to reach a global audience,” read the report.
Specifically, the report points to Iran's development of the National Information Network (NIN), a domestically focused internet infrastructure designed to isolate Iranian users from the global web.
The network, the report said, significantly strengthens the government's ability to impose censorship and restrict access to counter-narratives disseminated on foreign websites.
According to the report, Iran's AI development is bolstered by partnerships with Chinese entities, including major companies supplying technology to its police and military. Hardware imports, primarily from the UAE but also from China, Turkey, and India, further support these capabilities.
