Iran very close to acquiring nuclear weapons, UN watchdog warns

Speaking at a meeting of the Tehran Province Planning and Development Council on Saturday, Pezeshkian highlighted the severe imbalance between resources and consumption in the capital.

"The imbalance between resources and consumption is God's wrath because we have ruined God's blessing," he said, citing dangerously depleted groundwater reserves and a 36-centimeter land subsidence in Varamin, southeast of Tehran province.

He emphasized the urgency of the situation, contrasting it with international standards. "This statistic is very dangerous, while outside Iran when there are 2-3 centimeters of subsidence, they hold emergency meetings," Pezeshkian said. "The danger is at Tehran's doorstep."

Pezeshkian called for a unified effort to address Tehran's multifaceted challenges, including education, infrastructure, and water management. "The problems of education, road and water development must be solved," he urged.

Iran’s water reserves have fallen to critical levels, accelerating the risk of shortages and forcing officials to consider rationing months before peak summer demand.

Tehran's water supply is critically strained as key dams plummet to record lows, worsening a nationwide drought. Latian and Mamlou dams are at 12% capacity, Lar at 1%, and Karaj at 7%. Nationwide rainfall is 82.9% of normal, and dam inflow is only 42%. Officials urge a 20% reduction in water use, as 19 provinces face water stress.

In a report on the state of stored water behind dams, the Ham-Mihan newspaper wrote last week: "The situation of the country's dams is so critical that water shortages and rationing will occur earlier than summer, and the state of Tehran's water resources has reached a crisis level unprecedented in recent years."

Last Friday, Tehran’s water and wastewater company, Abfa, announced that water consumption had spiked 20 percent, reaching a record 48,000 liters per second. Officials attributed the surge to preparations for the Iranian New Year.

According to Abfa, rainfall since the start of the current water year has been the lowest in 57 years. “Without additional rainfall, current reserves should meet demand for at least the next three months,” it said.

The comments by Abbas Abdi, published in Etemad newspaper, were prompted by President Pezeshkian's recent speech at a meeting on inflation, where he asked, "Whose collar should I grab for the rising prices?" Abdi responded, "there is no need to grab anyone's collar, but rather to commit hara-kiri."

The analyst's use of 'hara-kiri' was a pointed metaphor, not a literal call for the president to resign or kill himself. It was a play on words, rhyming in Persian with Pezeshkian's recent question about who should be held accountable.

Abdi’s intention was to highlight that the government's overall monetary policies, spanning multiple administrations and not just those of the current administration, are the primary drivers of inflation.

"The price of any commodity is primarily due to the value and purchasing power of money," Abdi wrote. "We always ask why goods are sold expensively. This question is mostly wrong. We should ask why the value of money is decreasing."

Abdi likened the government's actions to debasing currency, similar to diluting gold with copper. "Who does this? The government. So, for high prices, there is no need to grab anyone's collar, but rather to commit hara-kiri," he asserted.

He attributed the devaluation of currency to the government's excessive spending, inefficiency, and support for unproductive entities.

"The government does not spend according to its income and has a deficit," Abdi explained. "Its income is less than necessary because its efficiency is low. It has taken on useless responsibilities. It gives a lot of resources to people who do not serve the people at all, rather their presence is harmful."

Abdi criticized the government's reliance on price controls and regulatory bodies, arguing that they are ineffective and prone to corruption. "In fact, governments turn to pricing to compensate for their wrong policies and create large regulatory bodies that are both corrupt and impose a heavy burden on the nation," Abdi wrote.

He urged the president to examine the central bank's data on liquidity and production to understand the government's role in inflation. "The president could get the statistics of liquidity and production from the central bank to find out why the money supply and liquidity, which is in the hands of the government, has increased by about 35 percent last year, but production has increased by a maximum of 4 percent," he suggested.

Iran is among the countries facing the strictest new US travel restrictions, alongside Afghanistan, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea, Reuters reported on Friday. If implemented, the policy would fully suspend visa issuance for Iranians, effectively cutting off legal entry into the United States and further tightening Trump’s already restrictive immigration policies.

This move comes as Iranian migrants deported by the US struggle in dire conditions in Panama. Dozens of Iranians were among nearly 100 migrants transferred to a detention camp deep in the Panamanian jungle in February under an agreement between the US and Panama.

Deported migrants, including children, were initially held in a locked hotel before being moved to the Darién province—an area notorious for its harsh environment and prevalence of diseases like dengue. One Iranian migrant, Artemis Ghasemzadeh, described the facility as resembling a “zoo” with “fenced cages” and inadequate food.

The Panamanian government, under pressure from the US, insists the site is a temporary migrant center. However, reports indicate that some detainees, fearing persecution if repatriated, remain in limbo. Iranian Christians, in particular, face potential death sentences under Iranian law for converting from Islam.

Facing mounting criticism, Panama recently announced that it will issue temporary 90-day permits to some migrants, including those deported from the US. This measure applies to individuals unable or unwilling to return to their home countries due to security concerns. However, for many, these permits offer little clarity on their long-term future.

The new travel ban proposal echoes Trump’s first-term immigration crackdown, which included a travel ban primarily targeting Muslim-majority nations. That policy went through multiple legal battles before being upheld by the US Supreme Court in 2018.

"It appears that Russia is no longer as interested in Iranian military assistance as the situation on the front lines in Ukraine is changing and as the geopolitical situation is also changing with the ceasefire proposed by the US and Ukraine," Lukyanova told the Eye for Iran podcast.

Trump rapidly called for a ceasefire and peace deal to resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia since taking office in January.

His administration has mooted ceding Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine and rules out Kyiv's accession to US-led military alliance NATO, delighting Moscow.

Ukraine and the United States this week agreed to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire - an initiative praised but not yet accepted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"The ceasefire negotiations hinge on Russia accepting that deal, but everything points towards - with Donald Trump coming to the White House - that this is the closest the US has ever come to having Russia as an ally," Lukyanova added.

Putin last week agreed to mediate nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, according to Russian state media, scrambling an equation in which Iran and Russia had grown closer for years.

"Iran ties really improved rapidly since the beginning of the full scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, when Iran became a major partner for Russia that had suddenly found itself isolated from the West," Lukyanova said.

"It found itself needing not only Iranian equipment and war technology, like its drones, weapons and missiles but also Iran became a key strategic player for Russia for evading sanctions."

Russia suggested to the United States last week that the two powers should hold talks focused on Iran's nuclear program, the Kremlin confirmed on Wednesday, in yet another sign of converging outlooks on global affairs by Washington and Moscow.

Iran's hollowed out standing in the Middle East may also provide an incentive for Moscow to recalibrate ties, Lukyanova added.

The battering Iran and its armed allies took in the region at the hands of Israel, especially with the loss of Tehran's oldest Arab ally the Assad dynasty to Islamist rebels, has diminished Iran's sway.

Soviet then Russian forces have been based along Syria's Mediterranean coast for decades - an arrangement now imperiled by the turmoil in the country.

"With that, Iran becomes less of an interesting partnership for Russia, which also is also trying to hold onto its standing in the Middle East, as we see now with their attempts to negotiate for the remain of their two military bases in Syria."

Appearing visibly shaken in court, Ms. Mehdiyeva recounted a video phone call Omarov made to her and her husband sometime in 2022.

“My husband was praying. We had a caller, and I covered my head. We exchanged hellos," said Ms. Mehdiyeva, "He said, ‘My name is Polad. Where is your son? I sent him to do a job for me."

He allegedly told Ms. Mehdiyeva that her son had failed at the task he ordered him to do. Mehdiyev's attempt to murder Alinejad was unsuccessful. Because of the botched murder attempt, Omarov told Ms. Mehdiyeva her son put all of them in trouble.

Once Alinejad spotted Khalid, who was lurking around her home in Brooklyn, peering into her window and wandering around her, she reported him to the FBI. He had been stalking Alinejad's every move, even sleeping in his vehicle outside her home for at least two days.

Threats from the Russian Underworld

Just hours after Omarov's call, at 3 a.m., an unfamiliar American number appeared on Ms. Mehdiyeva's phone. It was Khalid. Unbeknownst to her and Omarov, Khalid was in jail.

Ms. Mehdiyeva's voice trembled as she looked her son's alleged co-conspirator in the eye.

“He (Omarov) is the one who devastated our lives,” said Ms. Mehdiyeva, speaking in Azeri through an interpreter.

The threats did not stop after that call.

Ms. Mehdiyeva testified that members of the Russian mafia group that her son belonged to —Vor Zakone, also known as "Thieves-in-Law"— continued to harass her.

Fearing for their safety, the family fled Baku for the countryside.

Eventually, with assistance from the FBI, they were brought to the United States.

Cross Examination

During cross-examination, the defense sought to challenge Ms. Mehdiyeva’s credibility.

They questioned whether she had sought a U.S. green card prior to her arrival. She denied it, insisting she was only in the country due to threats in Azerbaijan.

“Do you remember telling your son on a recorded jail call that you would travel to Macedonia to enter the U.S.?” the defense asked.

“I don’t remember that,” she replied.

The defense further revealed that the U.S. government had provided financial support to the Mehdiyev family, including securing employment for her husband and eldest son.

Ms. Mehdiyeva had also worked as a nanny before quitting to attend the trial, leaving her in debt to her employer for $4,000 in prepaid wages. In total, the government provided the family with $31,120 in support.

Who are Vor Zakone?

The Russian criminal underworld developed in the gulags or the prisons of the Soviet Union and globalized in the post- Soviet world. The Vor Zakone evolved into a transnational organization with operations in 15 former Soviet republics and the countries of the former Eastern bloc.

Dr. Louise Isobel Shelley, an academic who specializes in terrorism, corruption, and transnational crime testified on behalf of the state as expert in court Friday. Shelley often consults with governments around the world about the Russian mafia.

Shelley said members of the Russian mafia carry out assassinations on behalf of state actors and are also involved in kidnappings, extortion, and money laundering.

Her testimony significant to the state which alleges the Iranian government-sponsored the murder-for-hire plot.

The plot to assassinate Alinejad was allegedly orchestrated as part of Iran’s campaign to silence one of its most vocal critics, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jacob Gutwillig.

As the trial continues, the chilling testimonies shed light on the dangerous intersection of organized crime and states, a web reportedly stretching from Tehran to Baku to the streets of New York City.