We don't want to talk anyway, US Senator tells Iran after sanctions protest

Looking from afar, it appears that Khamenei is banking on what he perceives as resilience of the Islamic Republic—the system, as he usually calls it.

If the system can withstand the storm, there may be a chance to negotiate in circumstances less treacherous and toward terms more favorable.

A historical overview could be enlightening.

The 2015 nuclear deal, officially named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was presented as a diplomatic breakthrough by all sides involved. It only came through, however, after heavy sanctions by the United Nations and the US under Barack Obama.

Khamenei reluctantly allowed talks, first secretly then publicly, calling it "heroic flexibility", and eventually nodded through the ensuing agreement, essentially accepting a halt to Iran’s nuclear activities while preserving the nuclear infrastructure.

But how should we read Khamenei's opposition this time? Is he truly and absolutely, as he claims, against negotiating with Trump?

His history of dual positioning suggests otherwise.

Saving the system at all costs

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, Khamenei’s opposition to a potential detente with Washington is not absolute.

He may not authorize talks if he believes sanctions, even tightened ones, are not detrimental to his system’s survival, or if he thinks other world powers could throw him a lifeline.

But what if he sees no such sign of relief on the horizon?

The Islamic Republic is arguably in a weaker position now than it has ever been, both internally and externally, with no clear outlook for a revival of the Resistance Front of armed allies in the region that it all but lost in the past year.

This reality may compel Khamenei to allow talks as much as it could force him not to, since he wants to negotiate from a position of power. In short, the unfavorable circumstances call for negotiations but the terms of the potential agreement forbid it.

It is Catch-22. What is to be done if you perceive the concessions required of you in an agreement as existentially threatening as refusing to negotiate in the first place?

Flexing over the fence

Khamenei’s answer to that question appears to come in two parts, either limited but aggressive confrontations, or, dialogue through intermediaries. The aim is to alter the conditions of negotiation or muddle through Trump’s second term.

Iran’s supreme leader will not hesitate to announce a variation on the theme of heroic flexibility, If circumstances align with his expectations.

If Khamenei were entirely opposed to negotiations, he would have fully withdrawn from the JCPOA and escalated into full confrontation. Instead, he has halted further uranium enrichment and adopted a defensive regional stance to strengthen his bargaining position and shift negotiation conditions in his favor.

Turning to domestic power dynamics, all factions appear to be singing from the Khamenei sheet, rejecting Trump’s proposal for talks.

Even then, the hardline principalists continue to criticize the relatively moderate administration of Masoud Pezeshkian because while the president himself is fully in line, some figures close to him utter out-of-line views from time to time.

The hardliners—and Khamenei himself—reject the moderates’ de-escalation and diplomacy as strategic solutions. They will keep doing so until they hit an impasse or arrive at waters calmer for roundtable.

In their view, hard power, including the now diminished Resistance, is the country’s primary tool in dealing with external pressure.

It is also imperative to national security. The continued attacks on Pezeshkian aim to prevent him from politically capitalizing on the situation and enhancing the moderates’ position within the system.

Khamenei would likely carry on sitting on the fence, ruling out talks with Trump in words but not deeds. Even in words, Iran’s supreme leader has been markedly measured when talking about the US president.

The Supreme Leader knows, better than everybody perhaps, that he may need to change tack at any moment.

Outlets affiliated with the Islamic Republic’s security forces published videos of the attack in the town of Chabahar, saying the forces were targeting individuals linked to Jaish al-Adl, a militant group that has previously carried out attacks in the region.

Videos published on Tuesday show government forces firing RPG rounds at the house as clashes continued.

According to reports from Halvash, a local news website, people inside the house returned fire, leading to an armed standoff.

Surveillance and combat drones were also seen in the area, as security forces in nearby buildings deployed heavy weapons in a bid to end the confrontation.

The site remained surrounded at around noon Eastern Standard Time, and the nature the gunmen and any casualties remained unclear.

Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni Islamist militant organization hailing from the Baloch ethnic minority, has not officially commented on the incident.

The raid follows a series of incidents in Chabahar. On February 22, a bomb blast destroyed the headquarters for the coordination of eastern Chabahar villages.

Around the same time, an armed attack on the Housing Foundation building in the province left one employee injured.

Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying hey were in retaliation for government policies to displace local Baloch communities.

The group has been designated a terrorist organization by both the Islamic Republic and the United States. The group has carried out several attacks on Iranian military and IRGC positions in recent years.

"The first credit for bringing this evidence here goes to the brave soldiers of Ukraine, who shot down this missile," Sikorski said, standing next to the drone on the sidelines of a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.

Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday said it has summoned Poland’s chargé d'affaires in Tehran following Sikorski's criticism of Iran and Russia's military cooperation amid the latter's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Semi-official IMNA news agency reported that the summons followed Sikorski’s role in facilitating the transfer of an Iranian-made drone from Ukraine to the US for display at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

"We just helped Ukraine to get it out of Ukraine and to bring it here, for the world to see that Iran is still exporting its destabilization, it's trying to export its ideology," Sikorski added.

Despite evidence to the contrary, Tehran has repeatedly denied its provision of drones to Russia for its war on Ukraine, which has seen Iran levied with heavy sanctions from countries such as the UK, US and EU.

Following the exhibition, Iran’s Mission in the United Nations said, “There is no legal prohibition on its sale.”

Addressing Iranian authorities, Sikorski added, "This is a warning. We know what you're doing. It is cruel against the principles of the UN Charter.

"Stop doing it now."

Sikorski made the remarks during an exhibition organized by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). UANI first unveiled the drone during the CPAC meeting last week.

"Many, many hundreds of people have already died from the use of this imprecise, indiscriminate weapon. We believe over 7,000 have already been launched against Ukraine," Sikorski said.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Shahed-136 drone is considered the most widely used military drone in the world, manufactured in Iran's military industries under the supervision of the IRGC, which designated as a terrorist organization by the United States.

Russian forces have used thousands of these drones—rebranded as Geran-2—in Ukraine, with one striking Chernobyl’s radiation containment shelter earlier this month.

Iranian-backed militants also launched a Shahed that killed three US service members in Jordan in January.

UANI CEO Mark D. Wallace unveiled the Shahed-136 drone alongside CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp.

Speaking to Iran International, Wallace described the drone as "the most ubiquitous WMD terror weapon of our time," citing its extensive use across the Middle East.

"This system has been fired at and killed American troops and service members across the Middle East," Wallace said. "It's been fired on Israel from Iran. It's been fired against Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. It's been fired against the Arab Emirates, including the iconic skyscraper, the Burj Khalifa."

The United States first warned in July 2022 that Iran was preparing to supply Russia with battlefield drones, and September 13 marked the anniversary of the first Shahed drone being shot down by Ukraine.

Russia soon began large scale use of the Iranian drones in attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian targets. The Shahed 136 drones have been used alongside cruise and ballistic missile attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

‘CPAC for Iranians in Exile’

Following the drone unveiling, CPAC and UANI announced the formation of "CPAC for Iranians in Exile," a platform designed to unite the Iranian diaspora against the Islamic Republic.

Wallace emphasized the need for unity, saying, "The civil and collegial discussion amongst Iranian diaspora members of diverse views, backgrounds and heritage is the Ayatollah’s greatest fear."

According to UANI, the group aims to provide a space for dialogue and engagement with US policymakers, focusing on ending the "Ayatollah's despotic rule."

Wallace expressed hope that the event would mark "the beginning of a new era" for the Iranian diaspora, fostering unity and cooperation in their fight for a free and democratic Iran.

After his conservative bloc won the most votes of any party in elections on Sunday, Merz hopes to quickly form a government with reluctant social democrats.

Should he emerge as Germany's leader, the top European economy and trading partner with the largely sanctioned and shunned Islamic Republic could be set to take a stronger tack against Tehran.

Merz told Israel's Netanyahu in a phone conversation following his strong showing at polls that he would invite him to Germany despite of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC), Netanyahu's office said on Monday.

The previous coalition government led by social democrat Olaf Schultz had taken a more measured line toward Netanyahu as war has gripped the Mideast for over a year, incurring criticism by some Iranian dissidents.

Iran this month repatriated the body of German-Iranian citizen Jamshid Sharmahd after his death in an Iranian prison while awaiting execution.

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Sharmahd was convicted of heading a pro-monarchist group accused of a deadly 2008 bombing at a religious center in Shiraz, which killed 14 people - charges he denied.

Late last year, Merz decried Sharmahd's death as a "horrible crime," writing on X: "The trial was a mockery of the international standards for due process of law. The Iranian regime is once again showing its inhuman character."

"The approach of 'quiet diplomacy' with #Iran has failed ... Germany #Iran policy in recent years has been characterized by the idea of a cooperative government in Tehran – this illusion was to be abandoned," he said.

Merz advocated heavier sanctions, downgrading relations and expelling Tehran's ambassador.

“On Iran, we were supposed to have discussions, ministers-only format, regarding Iran today but because very important foreign ministers were missing, so we postponed this,” Kallas said.

“The point was to have ministers-only discussion to get the understanding where we are so that we are able to come out with initiatives and concrete proposals,” she added, confirming that the meeting has been postponed to March.

Last week, Laurence Norman of The Wall Street Journal reported that that European Union foreign ministers we due to meet on Monday for a ministerial discussion focusing on Iran.

In a post on X, Norman said the agenda "will span Tehran’s support for Russia, its nuclear advances, its arrest of European citizens among other issues."

"First @kajakallas move to tighten EU stance on Iran," he added, referring to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Norman cited the EU diplomat as saying the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will be one of five key topics discussed.