Iran and Russia to sign strategic pact as both face regional setbacks

"Through the continuous efforts of the anonymous soldiers of Imam Mahdi, members of a spy network tied to the intelligence service of a Persian Gulf country were apprehended on Friday," said a statement from the Public Relations Office of the Vali-e-Asr Corps in Khuzestan Province on Saturday.

The statement added that the arrested individuals had been gathering sensitive information from critical facilities in the province. They have been handed over to judicial authorities for further action.

The IRGC and Iran's Ministry of Intelligence have frequently announced the discovery and dismantling of alleged spy or terrorist cells. However, such claims are rarely accompanied by publicly available evidence, follow-up reports, or public trials, making independent verification impossible.

“He [Carter] did all he could to push the Shah out without thinking who would replace him,” General Brigadier Yitzhak Segev told Iran International. “Carter spoke against the Shah and criticized him.”

"I'm not saying the regime of the Shah was good or not corrupt. I am not saying Savak was good also, but every time you must think about how to continue or who will be the replacement," Segev added, referring to the late monarch Mohammed Reza Pahlavi's feared spy agency.

Segev served as military attaché in Iran from 1977 to 1979, escaping after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Iran in February 1979 in a triumphant defeat of the Shah, who had announced he was going on "vacation".

Segev provided his eye-witness accounts, conversations and observations from the years leading to the revolution and its aftermath.

As an elite officer in the Israeli military, Segev had direct conversations with Carter and American, Iranian and Israeli government and military officials in the run-up to the Islamic revolution that transformed the monarchy into an Islamic theocracy.

While Segev said he respects Carter, praising him as a human rights trailblazer and statesman for his role in the Camp David Accords that brought peace between Egypt and Israel, he said the Democratic president let Iran down.

“His treatment of Iran was catastrophic.”

Carter’s role in Iran is a lightning rod of controversy. Many in the Iranian diaspora flocked to social media when learning of Carter’s death on Dec. 29 to again blame him for the rise of Khomeini.

Segev, who continued to have friendly relations with Carter after the 1979 revolution, said the late president believed the end of the Shah’s 37-year reign and 2500 years of monarchy in Iran would lead to democracy.

Carter’s championing of democracy and human rights drove that belief, in Segev’s view. The Americans, he said, naively thought Khomeini, an anti-communist, would protect American interests and felt the Shah had already lost control of the country and was doomed.

General Robert Husyer was dispatched to Tehran as a US envoy in 1979 on a secret mission to meet with the Iranian army, according to Segev, in an account corroborated by declassified US documents and a Husyer's memoir.

“Instead of coming to the army and building confidence with the army or promoting a replacement from the army or civilian (leadership) that would keep relations with America and the West, he really pushed for democracy,” Segev told Eye for Iran.

It would later be revealed that many of these Iranian generals were planning their defection and some even joined the anti-Shah movement.

Husyer in his memoir said Carter’s administration had not ruled out US support for a coup. According to Husyer’s memoir and Segev’s recollections, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the national security advisor, advocated for immediate action but Cyrus Vance, the secretary of state, opposed a coup.

“Brzezinski wanted [his order] to convey to the Iranian military a green light to stage a military coup. President Carter intended it to convey such a meaning only as a last resort,” Huyser wrote in this memoir.

Within the US government, officials were divided about what to do about its flailing Mideast ally amid backdrop of the Cold War.

Carter’s quest for democracy may have blinkered him on Khomeini’s true intentions, Segev said, and the prevailing threat to the Americans at the time was communism.

“The unusual story is that before Khomeini landed President Carter called the president of France and the president of Germany and told them: ‘don't worry, I checked about Khomeini and he is not communist’,” Segev said.

The BBC published a report in 2016 based on declassified US diplomatic cables saying Carter had contacts with Khomeini and his representatives in Tehran prior to his takeover.

Khomeini, who was in exile in Paris at the time, reportedly assured the Americans he would restore stability and that American interests would be protected in a series of letters he sent to Carter.

Islamic Republic officials have repeatedly denied any secret correspondence with a nation Khomeini referred to as the “great Satan.”

Officials who worked closely with Carter like Stuart Eizenstat, the president's chief domestic policy adviser, blame the Shah for the Islamic Republic's rise.

"Jimmy Carter did not lose Iran, the Shah did," Eizenstat said in a eulogy at the late president’s funeral on Thursday.

In attendance were President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump and all other living former US presidents, making for a rare re-litigation of the hotly disputed events of 1979 before the country's most senior leaders.

Regrets?

A few years after the 1979 revolution, Segev met with President Carter and Cyrus Vance at a peace conference in Atlanta.

Curious about the Carter administration's conclusions after Khomeini had solidified power, he spoke to the former President and Vance, directly asking the latter if he had any regrets about US actions during the 1979 revolution.

“I told him: 'I must ask you. Now after the revolution, how do feel?' He told me that he felt big regret and it was a big mistake,” said Segev, who said he asked the same of Carter later that night.

“President Carter did not show any regret,” he said.

Israeli offer of help

In 1978, as anti-Shah sentiment was growing and spreading outside Iran's capital, the Israelis offered Tehran help.

Israeli military leader and politician Moshe Dayan and Segev met with Nematollah Nassiri, the head of Iran’s former intelligence agency Savak.

The meeting did not go as the Israeli officials had anticipated, Segev said.

“I remember the meeting now after 45 years like it happened yesterday,” he said.

“Nassiri’s son was on his leg and Dayan told him ‘General Nasiri, Segev told me that there are big demonstrations. I came here to offer you any help from Israel.’"

"Nasiri told him, ‘don't worry, everything is under control. We control the situation. We don't need anything. We have everything. But if you are here, let's talk about the war between Ethiopia and Somalia’,” said Segev.

Segev recalls leaving the meeting disappointed and said Dayan told him, "‘I'm ashamed to tell you this. Nassiri is senile. Let's leave him.’"

To learn more about Segev’s escape from Iran and his meeting with Ayatollah Mohammad Hossein Beheshti, one of the leaders of the Islamic Revolution, watch or listen to Eye for Iran Episode 33. You can watch on YouTube or Listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.

"It is said that since Aoun was not Hezbollah's candidate, his election is a defeat for the Resistance," Iran's ambassador to Beirut Mojtaba Amani said on Friday.

"Much of this is mere delusion. The Resistance has demonstrated that if they do not agree, a president will not be elected," he added. "Hezbollah concluded it would reach an agreement with the new president."

Earlier in the day, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi congratulated Aoun, saying Tehran will cooperate with any government that aligns with the aspirations of the Lebanese people.

The diplomatic welcome comes despite US and Arab-backed Aoun pledging in his post-election speech on Thursday to ensure only the state bears arms in Lebanon - an apparent challenge to Tehran's ally Hezbollah.

“Iran supports a Lebanon that is a homeland for all Lebanese, free from occupation and foreign threats,” Araghchi said in a post on X.

“As always, we will cooperate with any government that represents the aspirations of the Lebanese people, ensures their welfare, and safeguards Lebanon’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he added.

Iran’s influence in Lebanon was dealt another blow with the election of General Aoun as the country's new president, months after Tehran's armed ally Hezbollah was mauled by Israel in a 14-month war.

Aoun, who was backed by factions seeking to reduce Hezbollah's dominance, signals a shift away from Lebanon’s political dominance by Iran via the militia.

His election marks the end of a prolonged political vacuum and a decisive moment in Lebanon's complex political landscape, raising questions about the country's future alignment in a shattered Middle East.

Among the 183 blacklisted vessels, eight were identified as having transported both Russian and Iranian oil, according to the Treasury.

"Several of the vessels sanctioned today have shipped not only Russian oil but also sanctioned Iranian oil," the Treasury said in a statement Friday.

The vessels are part of what the Treasury described as a shadow fleet, a network employing what it called "high-risk shipping practices" to evade detection. It said many of these vessels were involved in shipping Russian oil at prices above the $60 a barrel price cap imposed by G7 countries.

“The United States is taking sweeping action against Russia’s key source of revenue for funding its brutal and illegal war against Ukraine,” said Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.

In addition to targeting the vessels, the sanctions expanded to include traders, shipping companies, and maritime insurance providers linked to the illicit oil trade.

“These actions substantially increase the sanctions risks associated with Russia’s oil trade,” the Treasury said, adding that the measures reflect continued efforts to limit the financial resources of nations accused of undermining global stability.

"That sense of weakness could also theoretically create a possibility for serious negotiations," Burns said in an interview with NPR, referencing his experience with secret talks involving Tehran more than a decade ago.

Burns highlighted several factors undermining Iran's strategic position, including two failed ballistic missile strikes on Israel, the collapse of its allied group Hezbollah in Lebanon, the significant weakening of Hamas in Gaza and the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

"Iran’s strategic position has suffered considerably over the course of the last six or seven months," Burns said. "All of that strategically puts the Iranian regime in a much weaker position."

"The Iranian regime could decide in the face of that weakness that it needs to restore its deterrence as it sees it and reverse the decision made at the end of 2003 to suspend their weaponization program," he added.

However, he emphasized there is no evidence Tehran is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. "We do not see any sign today that any such decision has been made, but we obviously watch it intently," he said.