Iranians see Syria’s fate reflected in their own home front

Qatar is a Sunni-led monarchy, while the Islamic Republic of Iran is a Shiite theocracy. This marked difference, however, has not undermined their relationship. Why? Because it serves both sides immensely.

For Qatar, this partnership balances its extensive Western ties with a regional power that opposes the United States. For Iran, it provides a diplomatic boost in international forums, helping circumvent its growing isolation.

In recent discussions, Iranian and Qatari officials emphasized expanding trade and economic cooperation. They outlined plans to facilitate business connections and improve infrastructure for bilateral projects. Notable examples include the initiative to construct the world’s longest undersea tunnel connecting the two countries and a joint currency exchange entity designed to bypass international sanctions and streamline financial transactions.

Amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, Qatar has aligned itself closer to Tehran. This was evident during Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to Doha in October 2024. The two countries discussed enhancing cooperation in economy, energy, culture, and education, with a particular focus on resolving the $6 billion in Iranian assets frozen in Qatar.

The visit underscored Qatar’s role as a diplomatic mediator, as Pezeshkian met with regional leaders, including Hamas representatives, to address crises in Gaza and Lebanon. Such diplomatic collaborations draw much attention—and understandably so. But it often comes at the cost of closer look at realities that help explain the dynamics of this alliance.

The Reality in Iran

Under the leadership of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran enforces Sharia law with a totalitarian grip. The regime systematically represses dissent through tactics like torture, extrajudicial killings, and harsh prison sentences targeting political dissidents, ethnic minorities, and women’s rights advocates.

The death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 ignited protests demanding gender equality and basic freedoms. In response, the regime imprisoned thousands, killed hundreds, and executed many in sham trials, showcasing its intolerance. Iran also targets dissidents abroad through abductions and assassinations, disregarding international norms.

Beyond its borders, Iran funds violence and instability across the Middle East through proxies like Hezbollah. These actions are often justified under the guise of “humanitarian support” but serve to advance Iran’s ideological and political agenda.

The Reality in Qatar

Qatar’s election to the UN Human Rights Council for 2025-2027 highlights a dissonance between its global image and its domestic record. Human Rights Watch has reported arbitrary arrests and abuse of LGBT individuals, along with discriminatory laws against women.

Labor law reforms, while significant, face concerns about enforcement, particularly after Qatar reinstated exit permits for domestic workers, increasing their vulnerability to exploitation.

Qatar's longstanding decision to host Hamas came under more scrutiny after October 7. It's a relationship that may be better described as seeking leverage---and not a humanitarian gesture, as Doha prefers to depict it.

A Masked Agenda

Though Qatar and the Islamic Republic of Iran present their partnership as a means to promote regional stability, their alliance is rooted in political and strategic interests.

The cooperation between Tehran and Doha is often framed in idealistic terms but conceals a deeper agenda focused on power, influence, and suppression.

Hossein Aghaie, a researcher in strategic affairs and international relations, told Iran International, "The fall of Bashar al-Assad is, in fact, the fall of the Islamic Republic's ideology and regional terrorism.”

He emphasized that the Islamic Republic's nightmares continue with the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign and Israel's operations across the region.

Aghaie attributed the fall of Assad to the collapse of the Syrian army and said, "If Russia's interests demand it, Putin will do to the Islamic Republic what he did to Assad."

According to him, the biggest loser in the Syrian war is the Islamic Republic, which has spent significant amount of money in the survival of Assad.

Assessing the post-Assad situation, Aghaie said that Putin will continue to use the Islamic Republic as a bargaining chip, Turkey will increase its geopolitical influence in Syria, and Israel will face a dual challenge of threat and opportunity.

Crisis 1: Setbacks for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Bashar al-Assad

The severe defeats suffered by Iran's proxy groups, Hamas and Hezbollah, along with Bashar al-Assad in Syria facing downfall, have severely destabilized Iran's regional alliances.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been significantly weakened by heavy military losses and the elimination of key leaders. Meanwhile, Assad's forces have faced a string of defeats, particularly the rapid loss of vast areas of the country, key military bases and the apparent disintegration of its military units.

These developments have undermined Iran’s ability to rely on its regional allies against the United States, Israel, and other players, a stark contrast to just a year ago when Iranian officials boasted of their "strategic depth" and influence reaching the Mediterranean.

Crisis 2: Threat of Direct Confrontation with Israel

Iran’s long-held dream of directly confronting Israel has turned into a nightmare as the possibility of severe retaliation looms large.

Israel, leveraging current geopolitical conditions and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, is reportedly working to weaken not just Hamas and Hezbollah but also Iran-backed forces like Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi and Yemen’s Houthis. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs could become targets of Israeli strikes. Israel’s October 26 air strike on key targets in Iran demonstrated the vulnerable state of Tehran’s air defenses and Israel’s modern military superiority.

Israeli intelligence’s deep penetration into Iran’s security infrastructure has heightened fears within Tehran, including concerns over the potential assassination of top officials, even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Crisis 3: Trump’s return and a hardline US administration

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House with a team of hawkish policymakers poses a major challenge for the Islamic Republic.

Unlike the Biden administration, Trump’s team has no intention of immediately pursuing diplomacy with Iran, instead favoring a return to the "maximum pressure" campaign. Figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, known for their aggressive stance on Iran, are expected to play leading roles in this strategy.

Crisis 4: Europe’s shift toward a hardline stance

Europe has adopted a much tougher stance against Tehran, driven by concerns over Iranian missiles and drones supplied to Russia in the Ukraine war, Iran’s nuclear program, and its development of ballistic missiles.

This shift has resulted in new sanctions on key Iranian entities, including the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and Iran Air. Europe now appears more aligned with the United States on its Iran policy.

Crisis 5: Domestic economic and financial collapse

Iran faces an unprecedented financial and economic crisis, marked by severe budget deficits, the inability to fund long-existing subsidies, pay pensions, or cover infrastructure costs.

Reports indicate that the National Development Fund, or Iran’s sovereign wealth fund, is nearly depleted, with much of its resources diverted to military and proxy activities. Energy shortages, including electricity, gas, and gasoline, have exacerbated the crisis, severely impacting both citizens and industries.

Crisis 6: Deepening divide between government and people

A significant and growing gap between the government and the public has fueled unrest. This divide spans economic, political, social, and cultural issues, with increasing dissatisfaction over the government’s inability to address basic needs like energy and its imposition of restrictive policies such as mandatory hijab and internet censorship.

Far from meeting promises of dignity and respect, particularly for women, these policies have only intensified public anger. The government’s disregard for protests and demands has deepened this rift, placing society on the brink of widespread unrest reminiscent of earlier mass uprisings in 2017, 2019 and 2022.

Crisis 7: The challenge of finding a successor to Ali Khamenei

One of the most pressing challenges for the system is the question of succession for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This issue has consumed the leadership’s focus, raising serious concerns about navigating this critical transition without endangering the very survival of the ruling establishment.

Its inability to manage social and economic crises, combined with external pressures, has made the succession issue a complex and multifaceted challenge.

A mega-crisis

These seven interwoven crises have converged into a "mega-crisis," placing the Islamic Republic in one of the most challenging periods of its existence. The path forward remains uncertain, with mounting pressure from both internal and external fronts threatening the regime’s stability.

The hardline Islamist-led forces are unlikely beneficiaries of fallout from neighboring conflicts in which key Syrian allies Iran and Russia are sapped and distracted while uneasy neighbor Turkey presses its advantage.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, accused of war crimes by many Syrians and rights groups, fended off an armed challenge to his rule following Arab Spring democracy protests in 2011 with help from Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters and Russian air power.

But much has changed. The war in Ukraine has preoccupied Russia, Hezbollah limped to a ceasefire with Israel and Iran finds itself on the backfoot in a multifront confrontation with Israel in which it has lost the initiative.

“Over the last year, Hezbollah's forces inside Syria got weaker,” said Ibrahim Al-Assil, a Syrian analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.

Al-Assil said he was detained by the Syrian secret police in 2011 while taking part in a peaceful protest against Assad in Damascus. He said he was interrogated and tortured for four days at a Syrian military Airport.

“Now even Russia is overwhelmed and busy with the war in Ukraine,” said Al-Assil who founded the Syrian Nonviolence Movement but now predicts deadly upheaval. “The battle is not going to be easy. It's going to be bloody. It's going to be brutal."

The Israeli military has launched dozens of strikes on alleged Iran weapons facilities, smuggling routes and warehouses, curbing the ability of Iran and its allies to help.

The Israeli military announced on Tuesday in a new release that their Air Force conducted a strike in Damascus targeting Hezbollah’s representative to the Syrian military, Salman Nemer Jamaa.

Israel said Jamaa was a Hezbollah operative who was a key figure in enabling weapons smuggling to Lebanon from Syria, in a sign the Jewish state would still pound its Lebanese adversary despite the calm next door.

How far can Iran go to support Assad?

Whether Iran in its cash-strapped and weakened state can afford to come to Assad's rescue remains a key question.

“Is Syria the hill the Iranian regime is willing to die on? I don't think so,” said Hazem Alghabra, who grew up mostly in Syria was a former advisor to the US State Department on Near Eastern Affairs.

The Iranian establishment may understand its weakened position, and Hezbollah forces could be demoralized and underequipped after a punishing 14-month wrestle with the Mideast's top military power.

“The Iranian regime is not going to make big decisions while they're being chased literally by Israel and the United States. The Iranian regime moves when there's an opportunity, a weakness," Alghabra said. "They operate a bit like a virus, whenever they see a weakened immune system, they move in it."

Who are the rebel forces?

Two of the main rebel forces, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), are both backed by Ankara.

HTS, known as the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, is a former Al Qaeda affiliate that pledges to build a state based on Islamic principles.

They are made up Islamist insurgents with Jihadi ideology and former Free Syrian Army factions. They managed to take control of key places in Syria such defense factories in Aleppo, a thermal power station and an air base, according to monitors and eyewitnesses.

All met with little resistance, Greg Brew, an Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group told Iran International.

“Assad's forces have essentially melted away,” said Brew. “Turkey is largely in the driver's seat when it comes to extracting real concessions and real advantage from the situation."

Ankara, while supporting anti-government rebels, may not want Assad to fall, however.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be using the Islamist insurgents to push a reluctant Assad to acquiesce to a Turkish sphere of influence in Northern Syria, allowing the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey to return.

Weakened Syrian control over the area may aid Turkey's goal of undermining Kurdish foes further to the East who could also soon find the US military umbrella under which they have operated for years yanked away by an isolationist President Trump.

“Turkey is in a position to extract the greatest gains, the greatest advantage from this sequence of events, even if it hasn't been dictating the events, it does look likely to benefit,” said Brew.

On Tuesday, US airstrikes hit the Eastern Syria in the city of Deir Ezzor. The day before, US backed anti-Assad forces took several villages there from Iran and Iran-backed Assad forces.

While regional power politics may mean Israel and Turkey do not seek Assad's outright ouster, Syrian people trapped in the conflict are at the mercy of the country's clashing internal foes.

Syrian's suffered under the human rights abuses of their president but are likely wary of the Islamist insurgents who have pushed out his forces in recent days.

"People now are focusing on survival," said Al-Assil.

Opposition forces have now advanced towards the outskirts of Hama and Homs, two strategic Syrian cities on the road to Damascus. The potential fall of Damascus and the overthrow of the Assad government is more serious than ever, causing deep concerns for the Islamic Republic and its leader, Ali Khamenei.

The collapse of Assad’s rule would dismantle a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy against Israel. It would also threaten the survival of Iran's proxy groups, which rely heavily on Damascus for support. Without Assad’s backing, these groups could struggle to sustain their operations, jeopardizing the Islamic Republic’s influence in the region.

For Khamenei and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), Assad’s government is a vital pillar of the so-called Axis of Resistance. Its potential fall could even endanger the stability of the Islamic Republic itself.

The coming days are pivotal for both Assad’s government and Iran. The defeat in Aleppo dealt a major blow to the morale of the Syrian army and government, but the greater concern for Assad and the Islamic Republic is the possibility of opposition forces advancing toward Damascus after consolidating their power in the north and toppling the government.

The opposition forces now control Aleppo and Idlib near Turkey’s borders and are rapidly advancing in Hama and Homs governorates with reports that they are at the gates of the provincial capitals. Capturing the cities of Hama and Homs would give them a strategic advantage, potentially allowing a push toward Latakia, the Assad family’s power base, or Damascus.

The situation today is starkly different from 2016, when Assad, with robust support from Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran, defeated opposition forces in the battle of Aleppo. Several factors have contributed to the weakening of the Assad government and its supporters:

- Russia's involvement in Ukraine: Russia, a key ally of Damascus, is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, limiting its ability to provide military support compared to 2016.

- Hezbollah's diminished sway: Iran-backed Hezbollah, a powerful armed ally of Damascus, has suffered significant losses in its conflict with Israel and faces domestic pressure in Lebanon to reduce its involvement in regional conflicts.

- Iran's economic constraints: Tehran’s financial woes made worse by US sanctions have restricted its ability to provide financial and military aid to the Assad government. According to estimates, Tehran has spent tens of billions of dollars in Syria but now finds it hard to continue such support.

- Erosion of the IRGC's manpower and logistics in Syria: Key IRGC commanders, including former chief of IRG's extraterritorial Quds Force Qasem Soleimani, have been killed in recent years and the replacement forces do not have the same capabilities. Additionally, proxy groups such as the Afghan Fatemiyoun Division Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are less effective than before.

If Assad’s falls, Iran’s regional foreign policy could face a severe crisis. Damascus plays a crucial role in facilitating the transport of weapons, logistics, and financial support to Iran’s proxy groups. Its collapse would likely lead to:

- Disruption of weapons transfers to Hezbollah via Damascus and Latakia airports.

- Reduced support for Palestinian groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

- Destruction of smuggling networks for arms and narcotics into Jordan and the West Bank.

For Iran, preserving Assad's government is a matter of strategic survival. While Khamenei and the IRGC are likely to make every effort to prevent its collapse, their resources and influence are far weaker than in the past. Ultimately, Assad’s fall could dismantle the 'Axis of Resistance’ and pose a serious threat to the Islamic Republic’s future.