Khamenei looking at uranium enrichment centrifuges used by Iran in 2021.
Masoud Pezeshkian’s strategic deputy and former foreign minister, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, has said that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opposes nuclear weapons not only for religious reasons but also for strategic considerations.
“My understanding is that the Supreme leader has held the same view from the strategic point of view, in addition to the Sharia perspective, since he issued his religious edict [to ban weapons of mass destruction], and even before that,” Zarif told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA)Tuesday.
The comment was made in response to a question about ultra-hardliner lawmakers’ demandfor a change in Iran's ‘defense doctrine’ and considering nuclear weapons to allow a strategy of ‘nuclear deterrence’ to be drawn.
The step that these lawmakers urged the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to take requires Khamenei’s clear and definite approval, both as Supreme Leader and as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Iran's government has always maintained that it will not pursue nuclear arms because Khamenei’s fatwa (religious edict) has banned all weapons of mass destruction including nuclear bombs. Khamenei’s ruling was presented by Iranian officials at the International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament in April 2010.
“We consider the use of such weapons as haram [religiously forbidden] and believe that it is everyone’s duty to make efforts to secure humanity against this great disaster,” Khamenei’s statement read.
Skeptics argue that what Iranian authorities refer to as a fatwa was only an advisory opinion, not a legal document that cannot be revoked and was meant to mislead the international community about the real intentions behind a nuclear program that Iran has always maintained is peaceful.
Fatwas by Shia Marja (a source of emulation) are not set in stone, as skeptics say. They could be altered or overturned given the ‘requirement of time and place’ as many historical instances prove.
“What has been declared as haram by Khamenei, whatever the intentions behind it may have been at the time, requires a clear public statement to make it halal, that is, permissible,” a commentator in Tehran told Iran International, adding that the change that ultra-hardliners demand requires leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), also a decision that only Khamenei can make.
“By publicly demanding that he endorses a move towards building and testing a nuclear bomb, these lawmakers are actually challenging the Leader to make a drastic decision in these circumstances,” he added.
Masoud Pezeshkian’s government has used the same argument as Hassan Rouhani’s government which used the fatwa to convince the international community that Iran's nuclear program was peaceful.
“The government's stance on building atomic bombs is the same as [declared by] the Supreme Leader, which he has emphasized many times … Matters such as nuclear energy are regulated under the leadership of the Supreme Leader,” Fatemeh Mohajerani, spokesperson of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government, stressed last week in reaction to the lawmakers’ demand.
“[The Leader] has stated many times that the Islamic Republic has the ability to build a nuclear bomb, but this is forbidden from the point of view of Sharia. This is the official position of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” she added.
In an article Sunday entitled “Adventurism or Deterrence”, the reformist Ham-Mihan newspaper criticized ultra-hardliners’ move. The article argued that rationality can have a greater deterrence power than a nuclear bomb when what they demand could provide Israel and the West with “an excuse for a military confrontation with Iran."
“An invitation for an invasion of the country? The tune that some circles are singing about the need for ‘changing Iran's nuclear doctrine’ is rooted in their deep ignorance of the power relations in the Middle East and at the international level,” reformist activist and journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote last week in response to the lawmakers’ letter to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).
Speaking of a change in the nuclear doctrine will not only fail to secure the least level of deterrence but could also be construed as a “some kind of invitation to a military attack on the country by a well-equipped and powerful military alliance,” Zeidabadi who was widely quoted by Iranian media argued. “Is that what they want?” he asked.
He argued that if Iran could “build, safely maintain, and use” a nuclear bomb there could be nothing other than trouble for the country. Such a move would lead to the formation of a united international alliance against a “strategically alone” Iran, he said while pointing out that even Iran's powerful allies, China and Russia, do not want it to become a nuclear power.
Ultra-hardliners’ move will only boost the work of the “enemy's propaganda machine against Iran," conservative commentator Hassan Beheshtipour told the reformist Ham-Mihan newspaper in an interview published Monday.
“This is a miscalculation. [Such] people don’t pay attention to the fact that our nuclear program is conducted under the supervision of IAEA inspectors and bringing up such matters will achieve nothing except creating media and propaganda trouble for Iran and provide its enemies with something to maneuver on,” he added.
Beheshtipour argued that those who demand a change in Iran's ‘nuclear doctrine’ could not achieve anything even if they meant to boost Iran's power of deterrence.
Israel appears closer to showing its hand on how and when it will strike back at Iran as as a critical US election looms, Jewish holidays wrap up and US-Israeli diplomacy accelerates.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided on the response to this month’s aerial bombardment from Iran, according to Israel’s Kan 11 News on Tuesday, and the strategy will now be referred to Israel’s cabinet.
Netanyahu's government is made up of a right-wing coalition mostly calling for a tough response to the 181 ballistic missiles launched towards Israel.
It comes as the United States has sent 100 troops and deployed the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that may provoke yet another attack from Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured US President Joe Biden in a phone call last week that Israel will refrain from attacking Iran's nuclear or energy facilities, US newspapers reported citing officials.
It is not the first time that the Israeli premier is said to have made a plan of action, but as the psychological war between the two sides continues, timing may be key.
Israel is currently in the middle of a month of religious holidays, and after last year’s October 7 attack caught troops off guard amid the final one of the month, many believe that the government is giving the country time to breathe.
Last year's October 7 attack happened in the middle of the Simchat Torah festival, and Israel may be reluctant to invite an escalation to the war one year later.
Also crucial is the US presidential election, which is less than three weeks away.
“The US will want to get this done soon so it’s faded out of the news story before the election. Generally speaking incumbents don’t like wars around elections," said Michael Knights, an Iran expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"It’s a distraction and looks like things aren’t under control. So once the holidays are over Israel and the US will want to get this over in a matter of weeks so the US can draw a line under it,” he added.
On Monday, a massive bombardment from Hezbollah saw swathes of central Israel sent to shelters as sirens sounded across most of the region.
Israeli intelligence and defense analyst, Ronen Solomon, predicts Israel will in fact carry out a multi-dimensional attack which may already have begun.
“Maybe one of the responses was the explosion we saw this week at the iron market in Tehran,” he explained, referring to a mysterious fire that broke out in a market housing companies manufacturing parts for Iran’s nuclear development.
“Those facilities supporting the nuclear project could well have been part of this multi-dimensional attack,” he added. “It means that Isfahan can also be a target, with Ministry of Defense facilities for developing a nuclear bomb. It could be hit without being considered a nuclear facility like Natanz.
Other options are the UAV manufacturing facilities in Isfahan, Solomon said, and the missile launching sites in Tabriz which gives Iran a unique position to attack Israel from north to south.
Psychological warfare
An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Iran International that the delay could as easily be a part of the psychological war as the ongoing discussions with the US. Biden has said sending the THAAD system to Israel is to defend Israel, but said he will not support a direct hit on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“Israel will keep its cards close to its chest and strike when it’s ready. Bibi knows that timing is key and is the master of psychological warfare with Iran."
It took Iran over two months to avenge the killing of Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in an IRGC compound in Tehran, and Iran's retaliation came only after an airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
A year's worth of bombardments on Israel from rockets, missiles and drones launched by Iran itself and its regional allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon has left Israel facing a looming shortage of interceptor missiles, the FT reported.
Since the Hamas invasion now known as the Black Sabbath, over 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired from Gaza and Lebanon alone.
So far, the Iron Dome has shot down the short-range rockets and drones from Hamas in Gaza, but it is the system known as David’s Sling which has intercepted the heavier rockets from Hezbollah’s huge arsenal in Lebanon.
In the multi-layered system, the Arrow defence has been used to block the ballistic missiles from Iran, but several of these in the recent attack struck, more than 30 of them hitting Nevatim air base alone, as shown in open source analysis.
Another missile exploded less than a kilometer from Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, Mossad.
Drone attacks
Attacks have also come from Yemen, Syria and Iraq, with low-quality drones also penetrating the country’s air defences. On Sunday, a drone from Hezbollah killed four soldiers and injured dozens more when a precise hit on a military base caught soldiers in the mess eating dinner.
Solomon, who spent 10 years as an advisor to one of the military's intelligence units and is writing a book on Iran’s nuclear program, said bolstering Israel’s defences is key as tensions between the two archenemies escalate.
“Israel is using hundreds of their interceptors by the day against Hezbollah, but the problem is not the rockets, but the missiles. What we really need the THAAD for is against Iran. We would expect double the kind of attack from before.”
However, Dana Stroul, a former senior US defence official with responsibility for the Middle East, told the FT, “Israel’s munitions issue is serious”.
She said: “If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defences will be stretched,” she said, adding that US stockpiles were not limitless.
“The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point.”
Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company which makes the Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, admitted in an interview with the FT that operations were running triple shifts to keep production lines running.
“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles was “not a matter of days”. While Israel does not disclose the size of its stockpiles, he added: “It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured US President Joe Biden in a phone call that Israel will refrain from attacking Iran's nuclear or energy facilities, US newspapers reported citing officials.
The reports cheered markets, and oil prices fell nearly 5% to almost a two-week low on Tuesday as fears of a supply disruption eased.
Israel has publicly pledged to carry out a painful counterattack for an Iranian Oct. 1 attack on its soil with around 180 ballistic missiles but has yet to specify targets.
The Biden administration has in the past two weeks counseled Israel to carry out a more limited counterstrike aimed at preventing a full-scale war.
In a Wednesday phone call, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Joe Biden that he is planning to strike military infrastructure rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, two officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.
The account was corroborated by two officials cited by the New York Times.
One of the two officials told the Washington Post that Israel’s retaliatory action would be calibrated to avoid the perception of “political interference in the US elections".
Some US allies in the region have been lobbying Washington to prevent Israel from striking oil facilities in Iran for fear that their own oil infrastructure would be hit in a counterattack, according to reports by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.
They have conveyed to Washington that they disapprove of Israeli or American use of their airspace for any attack on Iran or having their land used as a launchpad for any strike, the WSJ reported last week.
‘Netanyahu’s stance softened’
During the Wednesday discussion with Biden, Netanyahu was in a “more moderated place” than he had previously been, the US official told The Post, describing the call between the two leaders.
“The apparent softening of the prime minister’s stance factored into Biden’s decision to send a powerful missile defense system to Israel,” the report said citing both officials.
Pentagon announced on Sunday a US air defense battery will be stationed in Israel to bolster air defense against Iran's potential ballistic missiles, amid preparations for a possible Iranian response to a highly-anticipated Israeli retaliatory attack.
"At the direction of the President, Secretary Austin authorized the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and associated crew of US military personnel to Israel to help bolster Israel's air defenses following Iran's unprecedented attacks against Israel on April 13 and again on October 1," the Pentagon's press secretary announced in a statement.
‘Diplomacy fails’
Since the October 1 missile barrage, Iran has appeared to signal its effort to avoid an all-out war with Israel.
“We are not seeking war, although we are fully prepared for it. We believe that diplomacy must work to prevent a major crisis in the region,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during his regional tour which took him to Lebanon, Iraq and Oman.
However, he ended his tour in Muscat with a press conference in which he said “Iran does not see a basis for [continuation of indirect] talks with the US until the current crisis is resolved.”
Some observers, including former senior lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh and veteran journalist Mohammad Aghazadeh, believe Araghchi’s remarks at the end of his extensive diplomatic efforts signal the “failure of diplomacy”, and indicate that “there is no other choice but war.”
Australia has imposed financial sanctions and travel bans targeting individuals associated with the Iran's missile program, two weeks after Tehran's missile barrage against Israel.
Similar sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United Kingdom were enacted on Monday to curb Tehran's missile development efforts.
Tuesday’s sanctions by the Albanese government target two directors and a senior official in Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization, the director of the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group, and the commercial director of the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group.
The entities, which enhance Tehran’s military capabilities, have previously faced sanctions over their involvement in the country’s missile development and military activities. The Aerospace Industries Organization develops and produces military and civilian aerospace technologies, focusing on ballistic missiles. The Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group manufactures missile systems, while the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group specializes in liquid-fueled missiles.
“Iran’s 1 October launch of over 180 ballistic missiles against Israel was a dangerous escalation that increased the risk of a wider regional war,” the Australian statement read.
Since Iran’s recent missile barrage on Israel, its second direct attack in six months, both the region and the West are on high alert for Israel's anticipated retaliation.
According to The Washington Post, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu has given assurance to the Biden administration that Israel will refrain from attacking Iran’s nuclear or energy facilities.
Some US allies in the region have lobbied Washingtonto prevent Israel from striking oil facilities in Iran for fear that their own oil infrastructure would be hit in a counterattack, according to reports by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. They have conveyed to Washington that they disapprove of Israeli or American use of their airspace for any attack on Iran or having their land used as a launchpad for any strike, the WSJ reported last week.
The US, meanwhile, expanded its sanctions last Friday, targeting Iran's so-called “ghost fleet” of ships and related companies operating in the United Arab Emirates, Liberia, Hong Kong, and other jurisdictions that reportedly facilitate the transport and sale of Iranian oil to buyers in Asia. Additionally, the State Department designated a network of companies based in Suriname, India, Malaysia, and Hong Kong for allegedly coordinating the sale and transport of petroleum and petroleum products from Iran.
The UK’s sanctions, announced this week, targeted senior figures in Iran’s army, air force and organizations linked to Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile development.
The EU sanctions, approved during a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, targeted seven individuals and seven entities involved in the transfer of military technology to Russia.
“Today’s designation includes individuals and entities responsible for the development and transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles and related technology to Russia in support of its war of aggression against Ukraine, and to armed groups and entities undermining peace and security in the Middle East and the Red Sea region,” read a statement by the European Council.
A Lebanese Shia, now seeking refuge in Canada after escaping Hezbollah indoctrination and surviving an assassination attempt by the Iran-backed group, has shared insider knowledge of Hezbollah's operations with Iran International.
Pledging allegiance to the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Supreme Leader, chanting death to Israel, death to America, is part of the daily routine for Lebanese kids going to schools linked to Hezbollah, said Hussein El Hajj Hassan.
Speaking over Zoom from Ottawa, Hussain recalls how young boys in his community were initially targeted by Hezbollah for religious indoctrination.
After being scouted, they would learn how to operate guns and weapons and taught that dying was a worthy cause of their mission, according to Hussain.
According to a report by the Anti-Defamation League, Hezbollah- run educational institutions and their umbrella organizations appear to reach more than 100,000 children a year in Lebanon.
"To believe in the culture of death. They want them to believe that their path is to die," he said.
They would start out by training in Lebanon and then some would go to Iran for what Hussain described as "intense training."
Some of these boys, who were in their early teens, died while training in Iran, and were later being adorned with ‘Martyr posters' and death announcements throughout his Beirut suburb, according to Hussein.
"Sometimes they would shoot while they were running during training, and some would be injured...others would get killed. But it's a risk they were willing to take."
“The society believed that Iran is the source. That they are providing all goods to Lebanon and to Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah was painted as a resistance movement existing to serve Lebanon, he said.
'A society within society'
Hussein said the structure of Hezbollah was very deep and secretive, but at the same time, its operatives and supporters in his Beirut suburb were open and obvious.
He described seeing men with weapons like Kalashnikovs in the streets, guarding buildings that were clearly used by Hezbollah agents. Hezbollah even had their own jails and religious courts, he recalled, saying it was like Hezbollah had created its 'own society within a society. '
"What we're seeing today in the war, Israel's hitting buildings. Hezbollah is hiding inside. We know that. When I saw that, I knew, I saw these buildings before."
"Hezbollah operatives owned gas stations and restaurants, all connected to a private landline network, separate from the rest of Lebanon," Hussain said. He added that they relied on pagers and walkie-talkies until September, when thousands of these devices, rigged by Israel, exploded, killing scores and injuring thousands of militiamen.
Hussein's mother, a Shia Muslim, sent her sons to a Christian school to receive a formal education, that included learning in Arabic, English and French. His dad, a supporter of Hezbollah, was absent from his life. He recounts himself as being lucky for that.
He said some of his uncles and cousins were – and may still be – Hezbollah members.
Hussein believes his cousins and other community members joined the ranks for either money, religious purposes or the desire for power.
Despite his mother’s efforts, he still wasn’t completely shielded from indoctrination, with the media he watched and society he lived in advocating against Jews and Israel.
"On television shows they would show Jews as evil, as a state or as people who just want to kill or want to conquer."
His mother is now dying of cancer, and Hussein can’t be with her. He feels like Hezbollah robbed him of a life in his motherland.
How Hezbollah held him hostage
While Hussain has gratitude for his new life and new beginnings – he admits he didn’t want it.
“No one wants to start from scratch. That's the cost I'm paying for. What Hezbollah has done to Lebanon.”
He recounts terrifying moments with Hezbollah that he described as life changing, leading to his decision to flee and seek political refugee status in Canada.
Hussain was protesting Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria in 2013, rallying outside the Iranian embassy in Beirut with his friends, when he says Hezbollah forces stormed out of the Iran embassy, indiscriminately attacking while the Lebanese army allegedly stood by and did nothing.
“We were protesting peacefully. We were attacked. And one of the leaders of these protests was shot in the abdomen and killed,” said Hussain.
His friend Hashem Salman was killed.
2013 protest where Hussain El Hajj Hassan said he was attacked by Hezbollah. His friend, the leader of the protest, was killed.
He watched it all unfold, pleading for help.
Hussain El Hajj Hassan photo from 2013 protest against Hezbollah intervention in Syria.
In another incident, he says he was talking outside his friend’s Beirut home, when a Hezbollah operative threw an explosive device at the two men. Hussain and his friend escaped unharmed, but he knew it would likely happen again – and the next time he might not be so lucky.
The assassination attempt, he believes likely resulted from his work as a journalist and as a peace activist, advocating for friendship between Lebanon and Israel.
Peace mission in Madrid where Hussein El Hajj Hassan met with fellow Israeli activists Lior and Yoav, and another Iranian activist Farshad.
After escaping near death, he said he received a call from the Lebanese army, telling him to stop writing articles as a journalist if he wanted to survive. He said the problem runs deeper than Hezbollah.
“It's not just Hezbollah. It's the absence of safety provided by the state, the government, from the police.”
The killing of Hassan Nasrallah
While Hossein doesn’t want war, he believes that military intervention was the only way to deal with Hezbollah. At least as a first step, he said.
He sees Iran as a wild card and can’t predict what move the Islamic Republic will make.
Does Iran want to move more towards nuclear negotiations and give up on Hezbollah as a bargaining tool in talks with the West or is the country weak, and unable to withstand Israel?
Whatever the answer is, will determine, how to further dismantle Hezbollah after Israeli military intervention, he said.
He believes that Hezbollah had become powerful through Iran, and its fundraising through crime. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), critical of Iran and its allies, Hezbollah’s overseas revenue streams include drug trafficking, blood diamonds, illicit timber and even human trafficking.
The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, who was assassinated in an Israeli air attack on Beirut last month, brought Hossein both shock and relief.
He felt Nasrallah was always “untouchable” but gained a sense of calm knowing he was really gone, feeling that it brought justice to his friend Hashem who he said was killed by Hezbollah operatives in the 2013 protest.
"We saw the police standing and just watching, looking. And there was a moment where I tried to run towards them. I came to the soldiers, and I was like, please take us from this area. And he pushed me back. He said, we don't have the orders to intervene to do anything."
Hossein told Iran International he is seeing a therapist to heal his wounds, but the wounds of his homeland Lebanon, cannot heal, until Hezbollah and Iran cease to coerce Lebanon into the failed state it has become, he said.
Iran officially declared on Monday an end to its "indirect" negotiations with the United States, which were seemingly aimed at lifting US sanctions and restraining Israel from pursuing the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on Monday that "The indirect talks between Iran and the United States with Oman's mediation has been stopped due to the situation in the region." He added that "Currently we do not see any reason for continuing the talks."
The main reason for the talks that apparently stopped long ago while President Ebrahim Raisi was in office in Tehran was reportedly Iran's unwillingness to discuss matters other than the Iranian nuclear program and the sanctions, while the United States insisted that there was no point in following the discussions without including Iran's regional ambitions and its contribution to international terrorism in the agenda.
Throughout last week, Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf traveled to key capitals in the Middle East and beyond, seeking to prevent Israel from launching a retaliatory strike against Iran following the October 1 missile barrage on Israel.
Israel's anticipated retaliation has sparked a deep sense of insecurity within the Iranian government and among the public. On the streets and across social media, Iranians are expressing fears of sleepless nights, anxiously awaiting Israel's response as both sides continue to exchange threats. The international media's coverage of Israeli attacks on Lebanon and renewed strikes on Gaza has only heightened the anxiety, leaving ordinary Iranians increasingly alarmed.
Araghchi's statement came a day after he issued two threats against the United States during a speech in Iraq. He warned that the US was endangering the lives of its soldiers by deploying the THAAD air defense system to Israel, which will be operated by US troops. He further added that there are no red lines preventing Iranian forces from targeting those who threaten Iran's interests.
He also wrote in a post on X: "The US has been delivering record number of arms to Israel. It is now also putting lives of its troops at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel. While we have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region, I say it clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests."
Prominent conservative politician Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh commented on Araghchi's statement on X, writing: "After visiting six regional capitals, Araghchi’s remarks signal the failure of Iran’s delayed diplomacy. Nations are now bracing for a war that will bring nothing but regret for all sides."
During Araghchi's tour of the Middle East, it appeared that Iran was signaling to Israel and the United States that its retaliation could be minimal if Israel's strikes on Iranian targets remain controlled and limited. Meanwhile, Israeli officials ramped up their rhetoric after media reports revealed that Iran's recent attack had caused significant damage. To make matters worse, a Hezbollah drone strike on an Israeli military base killed several servicemen and wounded around 40.
Speaker Ghalibaf's visit to Beirut was aimed at demonstrating that Iranians are unfazed by Israel's military power. Videos circulating on social media showed him in the cockpit of an airliner, which his supporters used as a major publicity stunt to restore his tarnished image, following heavy criticism during Iran's recent elections.
However, aviation experts on social media said the aircraft was on autopilotand there was another pilot in charge while Ghalibaf pretended to be bravely landing in Beirut, looking out of the window “like a truck driver.” The former IRGC general is a trained pilot but not for civilian airliners.