The eight million Iranians on the Islamic Republic’s payroll

This summer, Iran faced a 25% power deficit, severely limiting electricity supply to industries, including steel mills, which are heavily dependent on electrical power.

The sharp decline in steel production during the hot season is due to power shortages, a situation mirrored in winter months when gas shortages also lead to significant drops in production.

Iran's power and gas deficits have been worsening dramatically each year. Last summer, the country's electricity shortage reached 11,000 megawatts, rising to 20,000 megawatts this year. Additionally, Iran faced a gas deficit of 250 million cubic meters per day last winter, amounting to 25% of its winter demand.

The trend in declining production is undeniable. Data from the World Steel Association reveals that Iran's steel production in August dropped by 9.9% compared to the same month last year, 33% compared to August 2022, and a sharp 44% compared to August 2021.

Due to reduced operations and under-capacity production this summer, Iran’s crude steel factories have incurred an estimated opportunity cost of $1.5 billion, based on average global steel prices.

The sharp decline in crude steel production has also taken a toll on steel-dependent industries, particularly automotive manufacturing, which saw a 15% drop in production this summer. With a monthly capacity of 120,000 vehicles, the economic loss from this significant downturn in the automotive and parts sectors is substantial.

Additionally, a sharp drop in cement production this summer, also caused by power shortages, has doubled cement prices and halted construction projects across the country.

So far, economic and industrial authorities in the Islamic Republic have not released a report detailing the overall losses incurred by the country’s industries due to the significant electricity and gas shortages. However, some internal estimates, reflected in Iranian media, suggest that last year’s energy shortages cost the country about $8 billion.

Several organizations in Iran's power industry warned earlier this month of a 26,000 MW electricity deficit next summer, exceeding 30% of peak demand, compounded by natural gas shortages affecting both industries and households.

Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Iran Power Plants Association, has highlighted the aging and deterioration of a large portion of the country’s power plant infrastructure. He revealed in September that a major power plant has already ceased operations for repairs, noting, “The necessary spare parts should have been ordered two years ago, but they weren't, further worsening the electricity shortage.”

The steel industry plays a crucial role in Iran’s economy, contributing approximately $8 billion and representing 16% of the country’s total non-oil exports. As one of Iran’s most vital industrial sectors, it has been a rare success story over the past two decades, expanding from an annual production of 8 million tons to over 31 million tons.

Data from the World Steel Association indicates that Iran produced 19.8 million tons of crude steel in the first eight months of the current year, a significant portion of which was produced in spring—a season with fewer power and gas shortages.

Iran’s steel production grew rapidly from 2015 to 2019, a result of the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with world powers, and the widespread inauguration of new steel plants across the country. However, in 2019, following the imposition of US sanctions on Iran's steel exports, the industry experienced a sharp decline.

Over 60% of Iran's steel exports go to Iraq and the UAE. Since 2021, Iran has managed to find ways to circumvent US sanctions on its metals industry, leading to a recovery in production and exports. However, the country's steel output has not yet returned to its 2019 peak levels.

While the specific names of the defendants and the exact criminal charges remain undisclosed, the grand jury reportedly approved the indictment in secret on Thursday afternoon. An official announcement from the Department of Justice is expected as early as Friday.

The Trump campaign disclosed in August that its internal communications had been compromised, accusing the Iranian government of orchestrating the cyberattack.

US government agencies, in statements last week, alleged that Iranian hackers had disseminated stolen materials from Trump’s campaign to individuals involved with Democratic President Joe Biden’s re-election effort. The broader allegation suggested Tehran's attempts to influence the upcoming US elections.

Biden, who withdrew from the 2024 race in late July, was succeeded by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris now faces a tight race against Trump as the November 5th election draws near.

In August, the US had accused Iran of conducting cyber operations against both major presidential campaigns, allegations which Iran has denied. However, the US intelligence community suggests that Iran's cyber influence efforts have grown more sophisticated and emboldened as the 2024 election nears. This marks a shift from 2020, when Iranian hackers, while involved, were considered minor players in the broader field of foreign election interference.

"Iran is becoming increasingly bold in its attempts to stoke discord and erode trust in our democratic institutions," US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines warned in a statement issued in July.

Trump, who is seeking a second term in the White House, stated on Wednesday that Iran may have been behind recent assassination attempts against him. He added that any country targeting a US presidential candidate under his leadership would risk being "blown to smithereens."

Tensions between Trump and Iran have remained high since his administration ordered an airstrike in 2020 that killed Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, an event for which Iranian officials have long sought retribution.

Adding to these tensions, the US Department of Justice charged a Pakistani man in July with plotting to kill high-ranking US officials on behalf of Iran. Though the target was not named in the charging documents, reports have widely speculated that Trump was the intended victim.

In an interview with Iran International, Pahlavi addressed the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, saying, "The Islamic Republic’s adventurism and provocations have destabilized the Middle East and are the primary cause of the current situation."

Speaking on the sidelines of the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI) conference, Pahlavi emphasized that Iran’s interference in neighboring countries and its support for proxy groups have forced regional powers like Israel and Saudi Arabia into direct confrontation with Iran's rulers.

The conflict escalated in October 2023 when Israel launched a large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip following a surprise Hamas invasion of its territory that killed over 1,000 civilians. In response, Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, joined the fight in support of Hamas. These ongoing clashes have further destabilized the region.

Pahlavi urged the international community to stop "investing in negotiations with a bankrupt regime" and instead support the Iranian people’s push for freedom. This call echoes demands from the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, which gained momentum after the mass protests in 2022.

He argued that the fall of the Islamic Republic would eliminate the nuclear and terrorism threats in the Middle East, leading to fundamental change across the region.

Recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirm that Iran continues its high-enrichment uranium program, which could lead to the production of nuclear weapons. Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium now stands at 164.7 kilograms, a critical threshold since it can quickly be further enriched to 90%, the level required for nuclear arms.

At the NUFDI conference, Pahlavi unveiled the "Iran Prosperity Project," a plan designed by experts to guide Iran’s future after the fall of the Islamic Republic. He highlighted the stark economic contrast between Iran and South Korea, noting that before the 1979 revolution, Iran's per capita GDP was double that of South Korea, but it has since plummeted to one-seventh of South Korea's. "Iran should have become the South Korea of the Middle East, but instead, it has turned into the North Korea of the region," he said.

Prince Reza Pahlavi also warned that Iran is falling behind in the digital and AI revolutions, putting the country’s future at risk. He outlined the first phase of the "Iran Prosperity Project," which focuses on "financial and social stabilization" during the first 100 days after the fall of the Islamic Republic. The second phase will address political and legal stabilization, while the third phase will focus on long-term economic reconstruction and creating investment opportunities.

He called for the full participation of all citizens in the post-Islamic Republic economy, stressing the need to remove barriers to women’s participation in the workforce.

"While Iran speaks of change and diplomacy, its actions on the ground—especially its military support for proxies—remain unchanged," US Assistant Deputy Secretary for Iran and Iraq Victoria Taylor said in an interview.

"We are prepared to engage, but Iran has to show it is serious by changing its behavior," she added. "We will continue to use all available tools to hold Iran accountable."

Pezeshkian has been seeking to ease Western sanctions which have hamstrung Iran's economy by presenting a message of reconciliation despite escalating violence between Tehran's armed Islamist allies in the Middle East and Israel.

At his first major event under the global spotlight, Iran's new president told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that Tehran could work with world powers on a deal over its nuclear program if other parties renewed their obligations to the lapsed agreement.

But Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holds the last word on policy and has for decades championed confronting the West and Israel by backing armed Islamist groups like Hezbollah, Palestinian militants and the Houthis in Yemen.

The US government opposes Iran's role in regional conflicts, including its alleged transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia, which Washington and Western allies say could give Moscow greater advantage against Ukraine.

"If Iran truly wants to improve its relationships with the international community including the United States, it needs to take meaningful steps," Taylor added in the interview on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York on Thursday.

As Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah traded heavier blows this week, the US is working with European and Arab allies to de-escalate the conflict.

Washington has called for a 21-day ceasefire, urging all parties to prevent further escalation into a broader regional war.

"Our efforts are focused on promoting a ceasefire and preventing further destabilization," Taylor added. "Iran can play a constructive role by using its influence with Hezbollah and halting its support for the group."

Zarif’s visa

Asked about concerns raised by US lawmakers about the granting of a visa to Javad Zarif, Iran’s vice-president, to enter the US as part of the country’s delegation to the UN, Taylor said it was a US duty.

"As the host country for the United Nations, we must abide by our legal obligations under the UN Host Country Agreement," she said.

Some Republican members of congress have called on the administration of Joe Biden to refuse entry permits to Iranian officials, some of whom are affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or are individually sanctioned like Zarif.

Zarif played a central role in negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal and was also a key figure in Masoud Pezeshkian’s successful campaign to become president.

Appointed as a Vice President for Strategic Affairs, US-educated Zarif has for years been a main advocate for detente between Iran and the West and conducted several interviews with American media whilst in New York.

"From October 2021 to April 2022, Iran-based Poursafi attempted to hire criminal elements within the United States to murder Mr. Bolton in Washington DC or Maryland in exchange for $300,000," the state department said.

The statement described Poursafi as a uniformed member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tehran's transnational paramilitary organization dedicated to confronting Israel and the United States.

"Poursafi allegedly provided material support and resources to facilitate the attempted killing. Poursafi told the potential assassin – who actually became a confidential source for U.S. investigators – that once he completed the Bolton murder he would have a second assassination job for him."

The US treasury designated Poursafi a "specially designated global terrorist" in 2023 after the justice department unsealed aspects of the allegations against him the previous year.

The announcement comes days after Donald Trump's campaign said US security agencies had briefed him on threats to the former president's life.

Trump said on Wednesday that the United States should threaten to bomb countries "to smithereens" which seek the assassination of US leaders in the wake of the alleged Iranian plot.