Iran TV presenter removed for threatening Azerbaijan?

Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Iran Power Plants Association, reported this summer's electricity shortage at 19 to 20 GW. He warned that if immediate action isn't taken, the deficit could reach 26 GW next year. Similar concerns were echoed by Hamidreza Salehi, Chairman of the Federation of Energy Exports and Associated Industries, and Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Electricity Syndicate.

All three officials agreed that not only is it unrealistic to resolve the electricity deficit in the short term, but there is little hope of even sustaining the current level of imbalance.

Aging power plants

Nikbakht also emphasized the aging and deterioration of a significant portion of the country's power plant capacity. He pointed out that one major power plant has already halted operations for repairs, stating, “The spare parts for this plant should have been ordered two years ago, but that didn’t happen, exacerbating the electricity shortage.”

He further explained that while the total nominal capacity of Iran's power plants is over 92 GW, much of it is outdated. “Of the 15 GW nominal capacity of steam power plants, about 12 GW are over 30 years old. In the case of gas power plants, 2.7 GW have also exceeded 30 years of age,” he said.

As a result, 80% of steam power plants and 11% of gas power plants are effectively outdated. These low-efficiency thermal plants account for 43% of the country's nominal power plant capacity.

This aging infrastructure, combined with a steep drop in hydropower generation due to drought, has significantly reduced Iran's actual power production. Despite having around 93.3 GW of installed nominal capacity, the country's real power generation is only about 61 GW, meaning that 30% of Iran's power generation capacity is currently offline.

Growing electricity deficit

Iran should have increased its power production by at least 7% annually for over a decade to meet the growing demand. However, the last time this goal was achieved was in 2010. Since then, the country's electricity consumption has grown at twice the rate of its production. As a result, Iran, which had a net export of 8 terawatt-hours of electricity annually until the mid-2010s, is now facing a massive power shortage.

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The issue is that Iran now faces electricity deficits year-round, not just during the summer. Since last spring, the Ministry of Energy has stopped releasing its monthly statistics. However, a report obtained by Iran International earlier this summer revealed that even in the final month of spring, the country faced a 5 GW deficit during peak nighttime hours and a 10 GW shortfall during peak daytime hours.

This deficit surged to 20 GW during this summer's peak demand and is projected to reach 26 GW by next summer. To put this into perspective, this deficit is 1.5 times the total electricity generation of Iran’s northern neighbors—Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan—all of whom export electricity to Iran.

With such a vast imbalance between supply and demand, coupled with ongoing annual growth in consumption, it’s unlikely that Iran will resolve this shortage within the next decade, even if it triples its investment in the power sector. The country needs $20 billion in investment just to cover the current electricity deficit, plus at least $4 billion annually to support the 7% growth in power production needed to meet rising demand.

The primary driver behind Iran’s increasing electricity consumption is the addition of about one million new subscribers to the grid each year, with three-quarters being residential consumers and the remainder from industry, agriculture, and commercial sectors.

Moreover, hundreds of millions of dollars are required annually for the maintenance and repair of aging power plants. Nikbakht noted that the annual maintenance cost for each power plant is approximately $3 million.

A critical concern is the government’s growing debt to private power plant owners, which has quadrupled over the past three years. By the beginning of this year, it surpassed 900 trillion rials ($1.5 billion based on the open market exchange rate or $2.1 billion at the official rate). This mounting debt makes it unlikely that the private sector will continue to invest in the power industry.

Government Deflection

Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Electricity Syndicate, recently warned, "With the current approach, we will face a 25 GW electricity imbalance next year." He also criticized Iranian authorities for blaming the public for excessive electricity consumption, pointing out that the average household consumption in Iran is not only below the global average but nearly half of that in Europe. "Why accuse people of being wasteful? Don’t blame the public for the electricity imbalance."

Statistics reveal that the average household electricity consumption per capita in Iran is under 1,200 kilowatt-hours, compared to about 1,800 kilowatt-hours in the European Union. In countries like the United States and the Arab Gulf states, consumption is several times higher than in Iran.

Blaming the public becomes even more misplaced when considering that 13% of Iran’s electricity is lost in its outdated transmission and distribution network, which the government has neglected to modernize for two decades. This loss is equivalent to 40% of the country’s household electricity consumption, translating into a staggering $4 to $5 billion annual loss at current regional electricity prices.

Additionally, over the past decade, Iran has failed to convert its low-efficiency steam and gas power plants into combined-cycle plants, which boast a 45% efficiency rate. Currently, combined-cycle plants account for just 39% of Iran’s nominal power generation capacity, while low-efficiency steam and gas plants together still make up 43%.

Meanwhile, the share of nuclear and renewable energy in Iran’s power generation capacity remains just 1% each, with the remainder made up by hydropower plants.

Taliban official Azizorrahman Mansoor's refusal to rise during the playing of the Islamic Republic's anthem on Thursday had sparked backlash from Iranian officials.

Since then, Mansoor has apologized through a formal video statement.

"In our homeland, we sit when the song is played, and I have acted according to this custom," Mansoor stated in the video, expressing his remorse.

Following the incident, Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassador overseeing the Afghan Embassy. According to reports from Iranian domestic media, the acting head of the Afghan mission underscored his nation's deep respect for the Islamic Republic of Iran, clarifying that the act in question was purely personal and did not reflect the official stance of Afghanistan.

Tehran's special representative for Afghanistan, had also condemned the Taliban official's actions, calling it a "disrespect to diplomatic principles."

"Disrespecting diplomatic principles under the pretext of a Sharia-based prohibition on music has no foundation or validity," Hassan Kazemi Qomi wrote on X.

Mansoor, a member of the Islamist militant group's Ministry of Guidance, Hajj, and Endowments, led the Taliban's delegation to Tehran for the 38th "International Islamic Unity Conference."

A similar incident took place in Peshawar, Pakistan, where Taliban diplomats remained seated during Pakistan’s national anthem at an official ceremony.

Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the act, with a spokesperson stating, "We will convey our strong protest to Afghan authorities in Islamabad and Kabul."

The acting Taliban ambassador in Islamabad was summoned and warned that Pakistan would respond firmly to such "offensive behavior."

The Taliban’s Consul General in Peshawar later explained that he remained seated during the anthem due to the inclusion of music, insisting there was "no intent to disrespect or demean Pakistan's national anthem."

The backlash from Iranian politicians included a sharp response from Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a prominent "reformist" and senior aide to former President Mohammad Khatami.

Writing on X, Abtahi stated, "The Taliban's disrespect towards the national anthems of Pakistan and Iran, and their refusal to stand, has ideological roots." He further warned, "When we say that the Taliban's ideology is more dangerous than the thousands of weapons they have, this is what we mean."

Abtahi described the Taliban's rigid mindset, which views music as entirely forbidden, as one that "destroys religion and people's lives wherever it spreads," adding that "geography doesn't matter."

He emphasized that "the majority of Muslims everywhere, including in Iran, do not seek unity with the Taliban." Criticizing the Unity Conference in Tehran, he declared, "The organizers have no right to allow the Taliban, whether in the front or the back rows, to participate in this conference."

The Statistical Center of Iran, a government agency, has reported a growing income gap between social classes in urban areas. According to the data, cited by Etemad newspaper, income inequality has been rising since the beginning of the current Iranian year, which started in late March.

Iran has been struggling with a deep economic crisis since 2018 when the United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions. Monthly incomes for ordinary workers, teachers and nurses has fallen to $200 per month.

According to the report, the income gap between the rich and poor has been widening since 2022. Jomhuri Eslami, a critic of the government's policies, remarked, "The government certainly did not promise to increase the disparity between the rich and poor." The conservative newspaper added that this growing inequality is the result of the cumulative actions of various Iranian governments over time.

In another development, reformist commentator and former pollster Abbas Abdi wrote on Etemad Online that public support for Iran's foreign policy has significantly declined. According to him, while surveys in previous decades showed up to 60% support for the country’s foreign policy, this figure has dropped to as low as 35% in the current decade.

President Masoud Pezeshkian's new government has pledged to improve Iran's global relations and seek an understanding with the West. Despite low voter turnout, hopes for reform and a more pragmatic foreign policy helped him defeat hardliner Saeed Jalili in the July election. Abbas Abdi stressed that rhetoric from officials and diplomats won’t change foreign policy, arguing that national interests should guide it. He emphasized, "There are no permanent friends or foes—only permanent national interests."

The commentator further criticized Iran's official policy for failing to effectively convey its values and stances, calling this a major shortcoming. He explained that the decline in public support for foreign policy is due to the lack of visible impact on people's daily lives and livelihoods, despite periodic statements in support of dialogue and peace. Additionally, he noted that the rise of radical opinions advocating unconditional compromise with the West stems from the perceived ineffectiveness of foreign policy over the past decade.

The decline in support for the official foreign policy is a combination of the government's inefficiency and people's distrust in the official’s political behavior that has led to sanctions and resolutions against Tehran.

Iranian economist Kamal Athari, in an interview with Shargh newspaper’s economic editor Maryam Shokrani, criticized the government for straying from the Constitution's definition of governance. He emphasized that officials are meant to serve as representatives of the people, avoiding despotism and the monopolization of power and resources. The government should focus on providing welfare, education, housing, and healthcare while promoting individual growth. However, Athari argued that the current government has deviated from these principles and abandoned rational governance in practice.

He added that Iran's seventh development plan is designed to serve only one political faction and give it power, wealth and ownership of resources. He added: "With such an approach, development becomes meaningless."

Iranian authorities are gradually responding to two separate attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday, allegedly carried out by Israel. They have condemned the incidents as acts of terrorism, vowed retaliation through the "Resistance Front," and called for enhanced security measures to prevent similar attacks against Islamic government targets in Iran.

President Masoud Pezeshkian posted a message of condolence to the Lebanese people Thursday on X for the “treacherous [act of] mass terrorism”.

The explosions in Lebanon that have so far claimed over two dozen lives and injured thousands are particularly alarming to the Islamic Republic whose nuclear facilities, scientists, and even a very high-profile foreign guest, Ismail Haniyeh, have been targeted by Israel in very complex operations over the years.

Reza Taghipour, a former communications minister, told the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper Thursday that the minimum takeaway from the past two days’ attacks in Lebanon for Iran is to use homegrown technologies or carry out standard physical, software, and electromagnetic tests to ensure cyber security if foreign-made devices have to be used.  

Mohammad Marandi, an advisor to the Iranian nuclear negotiations team in Vienna during Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency, has in several tweets since Tuesday warned Iranians about purchasing “Western, Taiwanese, Korean, or Japanese electronic devices, batteries, or other hi-tech products.”

“As we see in Lebanon, they can be weaponized against you and your loved ones,” he alleged in one of his posts. “The West is complicit. Western companies are untrustworthy, and their supply chains are suspect,” he tweeted Wednesday and warned about devices “produced in NATO or NATO affiliated regimes” in another post on the same day.

Iranian media also reported in the past two days that some Telegram channels that report military and security news allegedly affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards, including a channel called Sepah-e 27 Mohammad Rasoulolah, have claimed that according to a Hezbollah official, the Lebanese group consulted with Iranian authorities when it decided to ban the use of mobile phones.

The said channel has alleged that Irancell, one of Iran's major mobile companies, Kambiz Mehdizadeh, former President Hassan Rouhani’s son-in-law, as well as Pezeshkian’s Vice-President, Mohammad-Reza Aref were recently involved in procuring pagers for the Hezbollah. This allegation, however, contradicts the timeline for the procurement of the pagers that are said to have been obtained several months ago, while Aref came to the political scene only in July.

The IRGC has so far neither confirmed nor rejected the affiliation of the said Telegram channel or commented on its allegations. Irancell, however, strongly rejected the reports of its involvement in the procurement of pagers for Hezbollah in a statement Wednesday.

After a speech on Thursday by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, during which Israeli fighter jets repeatedly broke the sound barrier over Beirut and bombed southern Lebanon, Iranian media published a message from Revolutionary Guards commander General Hossein Salami to Nasrallah.

Salami called the explosion of communication devices in Lebanon a “terrorist crime” and a sign of “desperation” and vowed a “crushing response by the Resistance Front” and “Israel’s total annihilation” soon.

These messages did not refer to the serious eye injuries of the Iranian envoy to Beirut, Mojtaba Amani, sustained when his pager exploded in the first round of attacks on Tuesday.

Amani was transferred to Tehran by the Iranian Red Crescent Wednesday with a group of Lebanese wounded in the attacks and visited by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Thursday.

“The Iranian envoy in Lebanon is constantly in contact with Hezbollah. This is not new at all. All our ambassadors in Lebanon were in contact with Hezbollah regarding various matters so it is not strange,” foreign policy analyst Hassan Beheshtipour told Rouydad24 news website Thursday.

“In my opinion, instead of reciprocating [now], we should first find out the details and block the infiltration channels. One must be innovative when it comes to reaction, that is, we must be innovative in the same way that Israel has been. The easiest thing is not to retaliate quickly," he added.

A video emerged in January showing two employees at a facility in Karaj violently assaulting a child laborer before forcibly dragging him into their vehicle.

The head of the facility and a security guard were detained, Iran's Welfare Organization, a government body said on Thursday.

"A child named Maroof, a resident foreign national, attempted to escape with a serrated knife after being locked outside a small gate while staff were tending to the yard," the organization said in a statement.

"Upon his return to the facility, security personnel sought to retrieve the knife, but the child was beaten during his attempt to flee again," it added in a statement.

Eight children were transferred to another facility, Iran's domestic media reported following the center's closure.

Iran's Welfare Organization hosts orphans and disadvantaged children, many of whom beg and work menial jobs, at centers throughout the country.

The abuse of child laborers in Iran has been a persistent rights issue in recent years as standards of living have dropped and migrant numbers have increased.

The incident followed a similar incident in November 2020, when another online video appeared to show a man coercing two child laborers working as fortune tellers to dance and expose themselves in exchange for money.

Reliable official statistics on the total number of child laborers in Iran remain elusive.

The latest official estimate on the total number of child laborers stood at around three million according to Reza Shafakhah, secretary of the children's rights committee of the human rights working group of the National Union of Bar Associations.

This figure contrasts with an earlier report from late April, in which Mohammadreza Heydarhaei, head of the Office for Social Victims at the Welfare Organization of Iran, cited the presence of 120,000 child laborers across the country.

A 2023 report indicated that 15% of the child population was engaged in labor, with at least 10% of these working children lacking access to education, depriving them of essential learning opportunities.

The primary factor driving the rise in child labor is widely attributed to "household poverty," which compels children to work in order to support their families' financial needs.

The report emphasizes that child labor is both prohibited and criminalized under international and domestic laws, placing a clear obligation on the government to take action to address the issue.

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Effective monitoring and prevention of child labor remain difficult, especially in cases involving domestic work, labor in hazardous or unsupervised areas, crime such as drug trafficking, and the sexual exploitation of children.

One of the country's largest independent anti-poverty organizations reported in October 2022 that many minors were recruited to attack protesters during nationwide protests in exchange for basic food supplies.

Members and supporters of Imam Ali's Popular Student Relief Society (IAPSRS), a charity organization, alleged that authorities employed children as part of their efforts to suppress anti-government demonstrations.