Is Zarif returning to Pezeshkian’s cabinet?

The Argentina Federal Police's Anti-Terrorism Unit arrested seven people linked to the suspected terrorist cell following a report of threats against a Jewish journalist by the Delegation of Argentine Israeli Associations (DAIA).

According to authorities, the suspected cell's activities primarily revolved around disseminating hate speech and plotting attacks via encrypted messaging platforms like Telegram and WhatsApp. The content of these messages revealed the cell’s deeply ingrained anti-Christian and anti-Jewish sentiments, along with ideological affiliations to international terrorist organizations such as ISIS and the Taliban, according to Argentine media.

During the investigation, law enforcement conducted eight raids, seizing firearms of various calibers—including shotguns, rifles, and revolvers—as well as knives, daggers, and katanas from the suspects' residences.

This recent incident comes on the heels of January's arrests of three individuals with Syrian and Lebanese citizenship, suspected of planning a terrorist attack.

Argentina, home to Latin America's largest Jewish population, witnessed an attack on a Jewish community center that killed 85 people in 1994, the deadliest incident of its kind in the country's history, along with the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy that resulted in 22 deaths.

In April, Argentina's highest criminal court attributed the attacks to Iran, asserting that Hezbollah militants executed them in alignment with Tehran's "political and strategic design." Iran has denied playing a role in either attack.

Since Javier Milei assumed Argentina's presidency in December 2023, there has been an intensified focus on national security, particularly concerning potential threats linked to Iran and its alliances with Bolivia and Venezuela.

In July, Milei announced plans to advance legislation enabling the trial of individuals in absentia of severe crimes, a move designed to facilitate the prosecution of Iranian leaders implicated in the attacks.

The operation, known as Storm-2035, was identified as a covert Iranian influence campaign that utilized ChatGPT to produce and disseminate content on various politically sensitive topics.

According to the Microsoft-backed artificial intelligence company, these included commentary on both sides of the US elections, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Israel's participation in the Olympic Games, and issues related to politics in Venezuela.

The content was shared through social media accounts and websites designed to mimic legitimate political news outlets, aiming to sway US voters.

OpenAI reported that the operation seemed to have had minimal impact in terms of audience engagement. The majority of the identified social media posts garnered little to no interaction, with few likes, shares, or comments. Additionally, there was no significant evidence of the associated web articles being circulated on social media platforms.

Earlier in August, a Microsoft threat intelligence report highlighted Storm-2035's activities, among other things, in orchestrating influence campaigns designed to sway voters, particularly in critical swing states.

These operations also included efforts to gather intelligence on political campaigns, potentially laying the foundation for future interference. The report disclosed that Storm-2035 established covert news sites aimed at left-leaning and conservative US voters, utilizing AI to plagiarize content and propagate polarizing political narratives.

Additionally, another group, Sefid Flood, has been preparing since March for potentially extreme influence operations, including intimidation or incitement of violence against political figures, with the intent to create chaos, undermine authority, and erode confidence in the integrity of elections.

Also, in May, OpenAI published an unprecedented report revealing that it had identified and disrupted five online campaigns that sought to deceptively manipulate public opinion and influence geopolitical dynamics. These efforts were orchestrated by state actors and private entities across Russia, China, Israel, and Iran.

This development unfolds against the backdrop of an increasingly competitive race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Donald Trump, as they approach the pivotal November 5th presidential election.

Last week, Trump disclosed that his campaign had been compromised in a cyberattack, which he attributed to a phishing email orchestrated by an Iranian hacking group.

"I salute the noble spirit of the nation's soldier, Martyr Lieutenant General Soleimani, and Martyr Ismail Haniyeh,” Pezeshkian said, while urging agreement and unity to approve the cabinet proposed earlier this month.

The parliament speaker announced that the vote of confidence will take place on Wednesday, August 21.

Pezeshkian was elected in a low turnout vote as many Iranians have lost hope and confidence that the clerical government can reform itself and address Iran’s multiple crises. However, he and his key supporters, such as former foreign minister Javad Zarif promised that he will act rationally in choosing his ministers and aides to bring about reform.

Pezeshkian repeated the same pledge in parliament. “The oath I took is an opportunity to become aware of the people's living conditions and to hear the voice of the entire nation for transformation and change. It is an opportunity to correct ineffective approaches and create hope and prosperity for the people.”

However, many of the ministers he has nominated are familiar faces, some hailing from the IRGC and others with dubious records from their previous government posts. Criticism about a half of the cabinet has rung out among regime insiders and even local media.

So far, Pezeshkian has taken no steps on two pressing demands of many voters, to put an end to internet censorship and police action on the streets against women for their lack of “appropriate” hijab.

Facing criticism about the composition of his cabinet, Pezeshkian and his allies have been insisting that it is a government of national unity and cooperation between different political factions. However, politicians who are allowed to operate in Iran come from a tiny strata of regime loyalists, and candidates for parliament are strictly vetted. No independent or dissident individual is allowed to have political activities.

Pezeshkian went on to defend his appointments, saying, "The government introduced to the parliament is a government of national unity, one that considers itself the government of all the people of Iran. It is committed to ensuring the civil rights of all Iranians. Adherence to the Constitution, the goals of the Vision Document, the general policies approved by the Supreme Leader…”

However, during the more than two weeks since his oath of office, security agencies and the Judiciary have continued their repressive measures, arrests and even a large of number of executions.

He told the majority-conservative parliament with a large hardliner faction that policies need to change to address the current crises. "The solution lies in mutual understanding and joint action to address the people's demands. If the people's voices are not heard in time, we will witness growing despair. The people are facing difficult economic conditions. We are witnessing injustices in various areas. The current policies and procedures are not capable of resolving these issues."

Pezeshkian also emphasized that people are dissatisfied with the governance of the regime, and added, "The people are dissatisfied with us today. We are the ones to blame. The fault does not lie with the United States or other foreign entities."

Bessami Momani, an international relations expert, told the Eye for Iran podcast that the increased signs of Iranian nuclear weaponization is likely related to the greater tensions between Iran and Israel.

"Its' part of the psychological warfare," she said.

Iran International's exclusive reporting revealed that the Islamic Republic is planning on testing nuclear bomb detonators.

Three independent sources in Iran, who have chosen to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the information, told Iran International that the Iranian government has made significant progress in its nuclear program.

The war of words, and the potential use of nuclear weapons, is part of a conflict where each side pushes the boundaries to the brink of all-out war without ever crossing the threshold, said Momani.

Momani, who is a professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo in Canada, said Iran and Israel are both engaged in a "game of chicken."

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge against Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Iran-backed Hamas, in Tehran last month.

Haniyeh was in Iran attending the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president. Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement.

But despite the Islamic Republic's public threats to "punish" Israel, and the updates from Western intelligence, reporting of an 'imminent' direct attack by Iran, nothing of that nature has happened yet.

The first time Iran launched a direct strike on Israeli territory was on April 13 when it fired more than 300 missiles and drones at the Jewish state that were mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies. That attack happened nearly two weeks after a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate building in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) officers, including two generals.

Momani said this is the closet we've ever gotten to nuclear warfare in the Middle East, and despite her believing it won't happen, she said the danger lies in radicals on both sides making a 'mistake.'

"Shadow wars can become hot wars very quickly when one little thing goes wrong."

"The fear is not so much that either side wants to completely go into a full out war, but the fear is that there is a mistake," she added.

Momani said Iran and Israel are both "rational" state actors but said both nations have "ideological" and "fanatical" members in government that could jeopardize the situation and turn it into "a hot war."

In this episode of the podcast Eye for Iran, Momani accuses Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of dragging out the war against Hamas and continuing a tit-for-tat with Iran to avoid potential prison time on corruption and hold onto power as long as possible.

Find out more about why Momani said Israel and Iran both have a vested interest in continuing what she coined "the game of chicken," and the potential consequences that could hurt innocent people caught in the middle by watching the full episode on YouTube or listening to on Spotify, Apple or Amazon.

The Biden administration has been pushing harder for de-escalation since 31 July, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Iran has so far rejected all calls for restraint and vowed to launch a severe strike. But the growing chances of a ceasefire agreement seem to have persuaded Iranian leaders to wait a little longer.

"Iran is expected to delay its planned attack against Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran to allow mediators time to make a high-stakes push for a Gaza cease-fire," The New York Times reported Friday, citing US, Iranian and Israeli officials.

The report came shortly after Qatar’s prime minister Mohammad Abdulrahman Al Thani became the latest to call on Iran to hold off its retaliatory attack against Israel, according to a Washington Post report. In a phone call with the Iranian acting foreign minister, Ali Bagher Kani, he asked Tehran to consider the “grave consequences” of waging an assault at the very moment there are signs of diplomatic progress, the report said.

The message coming out of Tehran has been largely consistent: that the Haniyeh killing warrants a harsh response. There are more than a few signs, however, that the plan for retaliation may not be as clear and final as Iranian officials suggest.

On Wednesday, exactly two weeks after Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the diplomatic pressures as “psychological warfare”. But he also made a reference to the impermissibility of “non-tactical retreat”, which many observers read as an implicit approval of a tactical retreat.

“By Friday, Israeli intelligence had assessed that Hezbollah and Iran had lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units,” the New York Times reported, citing Iranian, American and Israeli officials. The report came shortly after the Israeli Air Force released footage of its warplanes practicing aerial refueling, simulating long-range missions deep behind enemy lines.

Israeli officials have been as combative as their Iranian counterparts, often angering the Biden administration, which was blindsided by the assassination of Haniyeh and saw it as a disruptive action, as far as the ceasefire talks are concerned.

After two weeks of frenzied attempts to stop Iran’s retaliatory strike, the administration seems to be optimistic that Iran would wait to see what comes out of the cease-fire negotiations in Qatar. In a joint statement Friday, Qatar, Egypt and the US said the talks have been "serious and constructive," and that senior officials will try to conclude the deal in another round of talks in Cairo.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also head to the Middle East on Saturday, to help get the agreement over the line, according to a State Department statement. “Secretary Blinken will underscore the critical need for all parties in the region to avoid escalation or any other actions that could undermine the ability to finalize an agreement,” the statement reads, seemingly addressing Iran and its allied armed groups in the region.

While calling on all sides to de-escalate, the Biden administration has saved its warnings for Iran and reassurances for Israel. “The US continues to monitor attack planning from Iran and its proxies and is well-postured across the region to defend Israel and protect US personnel & facilities,” the US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, said Friday following a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant.

This is an eventuality the Biden administration seems determined to avoid, especially in the week of the Democratic National Convention. The heightened tensions in the Middle East –and the death toll in Gaza, in particular– have alienated sections of the core Democratic vote among Black and Muslim Americans. A ceasefire in Gaza would not only help mitigate the threat from Iran, but could prove crucial in regaining parts of the ‘progressive’ vote.