IRGC aerospace colonel deployed in Syria succumbs to injuries in Tehran

Ham Mihan newspaper which supports Pezeshkian wrote on Tuesday that the combination of the cabinet eliminates any hope for change in Iran.

Sunni leader Molana Abdolhamid said that the list of Pezeshkian’s ministers has disappointed the people. Abdolhamid also wrote that not including religious and ethnic groups in the cabinet leads to disappointment and prevents national accord.

Earlier, many journalists and social media activists criticized Pezeshkian’s choices and expressed the belief that this cabinet is likely to be short-lived.

The centrist Entekhab website has quoted President Pezeshkian as saying that he and his aides have made every effort to select the most suitable candidates from the available pool.

However, critics have already expressed concerns about the appointment of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, a leftover from the previous administration and other military officials appointed to ministerial posts.

Senior Iran International analyst Morad Veisi said that the choice of ministers has proved three things: First, that the majority of people who refused to vote in the election and believed that voting will not change anything were right. Second, even the reformists who encouraged others to vote have now realized that voting has not changed anything in Iran. And third, it proved that the main problem in Iran is the system and the fact that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei controls everything.

Veisi argues that potential voters have come to realize that even changing presidents won't bring any significant change as long as Khamenei holds power. The selection of candidates in Pezeshkian's cabinet, according to Veisi, proves that the election has brought no real change.

For instance, the appointment of IRGC General Eskandar Momeni as Interior Minister suggests that the government's stance on suppressing protests and enforcing the compulsory hijab will remain unchanged. Veisi notes that Momeni's role, which includes heading the National Security Council and overseeing provincial security, will continue to be dominated by IRGC influence, just as it was under the previous administration, where key security positions were also held by IRGC generals.

Momeni's background as Iran's deputy police chief and a senior commander of the Special Forces, responsible for quelling dissent, further indicates a continuation of hardline tactics. Additionally, Veisi highlights that Momeni previously commanded the Morality Police, the main force enforcing the hijab mandate, signaling that the repressive measures against women who defy this law are unlikely to change.

"This comes after Pezeshkian had pledged during his campaign to relax the compulsory hijab rules and ease restrictions on Iranians' access to the Internet, particularly social media. Meanwhile, as debates and criticisms about the new cabinet continue, the previous cabinet remains in place. On Monday, incumbent Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili announced that his ministry has finalized a document to regulate movie supervision. In essence, Esmaili's statement suggests a further tightening of censorship in Iran, allowing the outgoing government to implement these measures without the new administration being held accountable."

These two examples justify the concern that is being expressed by many Iranians, particularly on social media about their fears of further repression on social activism and freedom of expression in Iran. Instead of addressing the concerns, Pezeshkian wants Iranians to wait for another four years and then judge the cabinet based on their performance, mindless of the fact that nearly all of the proposed cabinet members have already a track record of inefficiency as ministers, deputy ministers and state officials. A few have also a record of having been implicated in financial corruption cases and this leaves little hope in the future for many Iranians.

Speaking on Wednesday, Khamenei underscored that any non-tactical retreat—be it military, political, or economic—invites "divine wrath," as per the Holy Quran.

Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Iran-backed Hamas, was killed in Tehran last month while attending the inauguration ceremony of the new president. He had boasted of his freedom of movement as he strolled around Tehran just hours before his assassination.

Iran has subsequently been biding its time as it weighs retaliation. "Governments that yield to the demands of today's dominant powers, regardless of the size or strength of the nations they represent, could defy these pressures if they draw on the strength of their people and accurately assess their adversaries' true, unembellished capabilities," Khamenei said.

He further criticized the longstanding habit of “exaggerating” enemy capabilities to instill fear, pointing to what he described as US, British, and Israeli efforts since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran has been leveraging its own psychological tactics, building suspense by threatening retaliation over Haniyeh's killing, yet refraining from immediate action.

Some believe that the Islamic government is apprehensive about escalation but uses the threat of an attack on Israel to get concessions from the United States, which has committed itself to preventing a wider conflict. On Thursday, President Joe Biden indicated that a Gaza ceasefire can prevent Iran's potential retaliation, while Hamas can use a cessation in hostilities to regroup and avoid a complete defeat.

As Western powers caution Iran against retaliation, urging restraint to prevent escalating regional tensions and to facilitate the release of over 100 hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Iranian authorities have dismissed the warnings as "illogical and excessive."

Tehran has asserted its right to retaliate for the killing of the Hamas political chief in Tehran without seeking external permission.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, criticized Western nations for their "apathy," claiming it has allowed Israel to commit "a myriad of international crimes, including genocide and war crimes," in the Gaza war, all while remaining "unpunished."

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas is threatening to boycott the latest ceasefire talks as the possibility of an Iranian retaliation looms.

Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, also has reaffirmed Iran's right to retaliate, publicly aligning with the Supreme Leader's stance, though it is alleged that he privately expressed concerns about the impact of escalation and urged Khamenei to reconsider.

Iran's President acknowledged that war is undesirable but affirmed the right to "punitive responses against an aggressor," according to IRNA.

Meanwhile, Israel's Army Radio reported that Israel warned the US and European nations that any direct aggression from Tehran would trigger an Israeli strike on Iranian territory, emphasizing their intent to retaliate, even without Israeli casualties.

Iranian government supporters have attributed the wait to Iran's attempt at psychological warfare while others have suggested it is a means to determine the most effective form of response.

But while the fear and anxiety across the Middle East is not something to be taken lightly, Israelis and Iranians have eased some of their tensions with memes and jokes on social media.

Simcha Brodsky, a host for Open Source Intel, mocked the mixed messaging on the exact timing of the 'imminent' attack. He wrote on X, "Iran will attack in 24 hours...Iran will attack at 10 PM on Monday...Iran won't attack, but Hezbollah will.'

Lebanese-Israeli activist Jonathan Elkhoury, who fled Southern Lebanon 20 years ago as a child because of the persecution of Christians under Hezbollah, posted a video to Instagram after an X account reportedly linked to Iran posted an hourglass with the caption "2:00."

Many social media users were left perplexed by the meaning of "2:00." Elkhoury jokingly asked if that was AM or PM and which time zone was meant by the tweet.

Some Iranian social media users responded that it's 2am Iran time because that's the only time to "beat Tehran traffic."

Holly Dagres, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, said dark humor is a way for people in the Middle East to work through adversity.

"For Westerners, gallows humor doesn’t often translate and can often be seen as not politically correct because how can someone laugh at a matter that has serious implications, including war," she said.

"But for Middle Easterners who have experienced so much turmoil through wars, coups, and revolutions, it’s a way to keep themselves sane in a time of fear and uncertainty."

Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli lecturer and author joked that "Iranians are always fashionably late", referring to the time now passing since the brazen assassination on July 31.

Another reason, he wrote, was that the country's leaders "prefer to go holidaying and partying in Dubai and Antalya".

However, Iran's inaugural direct attack on Israel which followed an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, happened thirteen days after the event which killed two senior IRGC commanders and several other senior figures.

Jonathan Harounoff, an Israel-Iran expert and author of the upcoming book 'Unveiled: Inside Iran's #WomanLifeFreedom Revolt', said that jokes aside, the threats from Tehran are being taken seriously.

"Israel -- and the Iranian people -- know all too well by now that the gerontocratic elite in Tehran favor a foreign policy centered on Israel's demise far more than focusing on the country's socio-economic woes," he said.

This week, Iran branded warnings from France, Britain, and Germany against attacking Israel as "illogical and excessive," asserting that it “doesn't need permission to retaliate" for the killing of the Hamas political chief in Tehran.

On Monday, John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, told reporters “[the attack] could happen as soon as this week".

The assassination in Tehran, which Israel has not claimed responsibility for, has since led to the arrest of dozens in Iran as questions are raised as to how the security breach allowed the killing in the bedroom Haniyeh and his bodyguard were sleeping in.

The Iran-aligned militia fired projectiles aimed at a US airbase situated within a strategic gas field in Syria's Deir Ezzor on Tuesday. According to Reuters, citing US officials, the projectiles failed to strike the intended target.

According to Iran International sources, the rockets were launched from the western bank of the Euphrates, where Iran-backed militias are stationed. The rockets fired were of the Katyusha type and short-range Iranian-made missiles.

The projectiles fell near the base, triggering an immediate artillery response from the US-led coalition. However, the Biden administration has notably refrained from a more extensive retaliation against Iran-backed groups, aiming to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, while subtly signaling to Tehran to avoid retaliatory measures over the recent killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden expressed confidence that Iran would refrain from striking Israel, contingent on the successful negotiation of a Gaza ceasefire in the coming days.

In a related development, the Pentagon disclosed on Tuesday that eight US service members sustained injuries during a drone assault on a base in Syria last week, marking the first official release of casualty figures from the incident.

Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder later informed reporters that three injured personnel had already resumed their duties. The eight service members were treated for traumatic brain injury and smoke inhalation.

Concurrently, Iran International has reported a serious escalation in the Deir Ezzor region in Syria, where Iran-backed tribal forces launched assaults on positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The intensifying conflict underscores the volatile dynamics in the region as the Syrian regime and its Iranian allies endeavor to reassert control over territories held by the SDF and close to US forces.

The US initially moved troops into Syria to combat the rise of the Islamic State, a militant group that once controlled vast territories across the region. Today, the presence of approximately 900 US troops in Syria, alongside 2,500 in neighboring Iraq, continues to underscore their mission to support local forces in preventing any resurgence of this extremist threat, ensuring the group remains diminished.

"That's my expectation," President Joe Biden told reporters when asked if a truce between Israel and Hamas could stave off an Iranian assault, adding that while negotiations were "getting hard" he was "not giving up".

Reuters earlier in the day quoted unnamed Iranian officials as saying that Iran, along with its allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if Israel is seen to be dragging out negotiations. However, the timeline for how long Iran would wait before responding remains unclear.

The assassination of Haniyeh, for which Iran blames Israel, has escalated tensions in the region. Although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, the US has deployed additional military assets to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses. Amid rising fears of a broader Middle East conflict following the killings of both Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has engaged in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States to manage the situation.

Iran has been threatening to launch a harsh retaliation against Israel that could lead to a regional war, but after two weeks of keeping the world in suspense no attack has taken place. In April, Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in first such strike for an attack on its embassy compound in Damascus.

The Reuters report might be an indication that Tehran is withholding any retaliation expecting to receive diplomatic concessions in return. Some Iranian media and political figures began showing a more pragmatic stance a few days after Haniyeh's killing indicating the futility of military escalation.

US officials have been in discussions with allies to convince Iran to de-escalate tensions, with ceasefire talks expected to begin on Thursday in Egypt or Qatar. Despite these diplomatic efforts, Iran’s mission to the UN issued a statement expressing hope that any response to Haniyeh’s killing would be timed to avoid harming potential ceasefire talks. However, Iran's foreign ministry dismissed calls for restraint as contradictory to international law principles.

Iran's mission to the UN in New York told Reuters on Tuesday that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the Gaza ceasefire talks. Two sources earlier told Reuters Iran was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the US while negotiations proceed.

The prospect of Iranian retaliation has kept both the US and Israel on high alert, with White House spokesperson John Kirby acknowledging that a retaliatory attack could occur as soon as this week, potentially impacting the ceasefire negotiations.

The potential ceasefire in Gaza presents a crucial moment for Iran, which may use it as cover for a more limited, symbolic response. This could allow Iran to fulfill its pledge of retaliation while avoiding a full-scale war that could further destabilize the region. Iran, which has not traditionally been involved in Gaza peace talks, is now considering a more active role, possibly through behind-the-scenes involvement rather than direct participation in the ceasefire negotiations.

According to the Iranian sources, Hezbollah and other allies may also launch their own responses to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, with Iran ready to support these actions. The details of what such support could entail remain unspecified. However, any Iranian response is expected to be more effective than previous actions, such as the missile barrage launched by Iran on April 13 following the killing of Iranian generals in Syria. That attack, which targeted Israeli airbases, was largely intercepted and did not achieve significant damage.

The situation remains highly volatile, with Tehran's reaction closely tied to the progress of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the broader regional dynamics influenced by the actions of Hezbollah, Iraq's militias, and Yemen's Houthis against Israel.