Biden says Gaza truce could avert Iran's attack on Israel

Iran is facing its most severe heatwave in 50 years causing nationwide power outages as the government struggles with billions of dollars' worth of deficit. Industrial production faces a crisis, as manufacturers report that frequent power outages have often halted operations.

Now cryptocurrency miners are apparently rubbing salt into the wounds of Iran's electricity network, according to the CEO of Iran’s state electricity company Tavanir.

"Opportunistic individuals have been exploiting subsidized electricity and public networks to mine cryptocurrencies without proper authorization. This unauthorized mining has led to an abnormal surge in electricity consumption, causing significant disruptions and problems within the country's power grid," said Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi.

In response to the growing issue, Iranian authorities have initiated a crackdown on illegal miners. To encourage public cooperation, officials say a reward has been introduced.

"A bounty of one million toman (approximately $20) will be awarded to individuals who report every single unauthorized cryptocurrency mining equipment," Rajabi said.

Cryptocurrencies are created through a process known as mining, where powerful computers compete with each other to solve complex mathematical problems. The process is highly energy-intensive, often relying on electricity generated by fossil fuels, which are abundant in Iran.

"So far, more than 230,000 illegal cryptocurrency mining devices with a power consumption capacity of 800 to 900 megawatts have been discovered. Their electricity consumption is equivalent to that of the Markazi Province," Rajabi noted. "Providing this amount of electricity would require the construction of a 1,300-megawatt power plant."

In recent years, Iranian authorities have regularly announced the discovery of illegal cryptocurrency mining machines in different parts of the country. Many of these operations were based in public locations such as schools and mosques that receive free or heavily-subsidized electricity.

In 2022, the state’s Intelligence Ministry claimed they blocked over 9,000 accounts belonging to 454 individuals used for illegal or undeclared exchanges of currency and digital currency. Based on the exchange rate during that period, the relevant trades amounted to 600,000 billion rials or approximately $2 billion.

As experts have often said, the Iranian government has a self-inflicted “muddled relationship with crypto-currencies”, which have served to obscure various forms of trade, aiding in evading sanctions, while simultaneously presenting avenues for illicit activities.

Reports in Iranian media suggest that large-scale crypto mining has been taking place by influential or well-connected networks, as well as some Chinese companies that are using cheap and subsidized electricity in mining farms they set up in Iran. This could have been permitted only by Iran's intelligence services and the Revolutionary Guard.

On Monday, the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK issued a joint statement urging Iran and its allies to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further inflame regional tensions or undermine efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza amid the war and facilitate the release of the remaining more than 100 hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, asserted on Tuesday that the “apathy” of Western nations has enabled Israel to perpetrate "a myriad of international crimes, including genocide and war crimes," all while remaining "unpunished" referring to the Gaza war.

The latest statement warned Tehran and its network of regional militias that “They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability.” Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas is threatening to boycott the latest round of ceasefire talks amid Iran's looming attack.

Also in a call on Monday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to avoid attacking Israel, emphasizing that war serves no one's interests.

Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's right to retaliate, under pressure to publicly maintain the Supreme Leader's position, even though behind the scenes he too worries for the impact such an escalation would have inside Iran and has implored Ali Khamenei to rethink the operation.

Iran's President acknowledged that war is never in anyone's interest, yet affirmed the inherent right of nations to "punitive responses against an aggressor," according to the official news agency, IRNA.

In parallel, on Tuesday, Israel's Army Radio reported that Israel has recently conveyed to the US and several European nations that any direct aggression from Tehran would prompt an Israeli strike on Iranian territory.

The report, though unsourced, indicated that Israel underscored its determination to retaliate against Iran, even if no Israeli casualties result.

It is almost two weeks since Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. In April, it was also two weeks before Iran undertook its first direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Two IRGC commanders were killed along with several other senior figures, leading to a barrage of over 350 drones, rockets and missiles fired towards Israel. Israel and a US-led coalition intercepted the majority of the onslaught.

On Tuesday, Asghar Abbasgholizadeh, the commander of the Ashura Headquarters of the IRGC said, "On the surface, it seems too late for a response and revenge, but the enemy endures significant pressure by waiting. We are awaiting the command of the Supreme Leader, whether for patience and perseverance or retaliation."

Reuters reported on Tuesday that a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza, emerging from anticipated talks this week, would deter Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Hamas's political leader.

Citing senior Iranian security officials, Reuters wrote that if the Gaza negotiations falter or if Iran perceives Israel as stalling, Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack. The sources did not specify how long Iran would wait for the talks to progress before taking action.

However, while it remains unclear if Hamas will attend the talks amid demands that Israel holds fire while they continue, a demand that Israel will not comply with, global powers remain keen to avert a crisis.

“Our drones have become the stuff of legend, their renown echoing across the globe, making them a must-see for every nation—alongside, naturally, our missiles,” Ali Shadmani, Deputy Coordinator of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, told IRNA on the sidelines of the exhibition.

Iran’s Ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, who attended the exhibition, also lauded Tehran’s defense achievements in an interview with the Iranian state news agency.

He remarked that officials from numerous nations “envy” Iran’s advancements when visiting its pavilion, underscoring that “progress in the defense and military fields is not mere rhetoric but a proud reality.”

Jalali further praised the strong ties between Tehran and Moscow, countering claims by “those who seek to demonize countries like Russia and Iran as the true war-mongers.”

In spite of denials of supporting Russia's war in Ukraine, he said that Iran's “political, economic, cultural, and particularly defense and military relations with Russia are not directed against any nation.”

The very entity present at the exhibition—Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which plays a pivotal role in coordinating Iran's military production—was sanctioned by the EU in May for precisely this reason: supporting Russia's war on Ukraine.

Since mid-2022, Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of Shahed suicide drones, which have been extensively employed in targeting civilian infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine. In response, NATO has urged Tehran to cease its military cooperation with Moscow in addition to multiple nations such as the US and Britain levying sanctions on Russia for its support of Russia.

Last week, a report from Reuters indicated that dozens of Russian military personnel are currently being trained in Iran to operate the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system.

It cited two European intelligence sources which warned of an imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided missiles to Russia.

Unlike the Shahed drones, which carry a relatively small payload of explosives at around 45 kilograms and are more vulnerable to interception due to their slower speed, the Fath-360 missiles represent a far more potent threat.

Iran's UN representative dismissed the Reuters report, refuting the claims that Iran is preparing to supply hundreds of missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

The International Military-Technical Forum "Army-2024" appeared to draw limited international participation, a reflection of Russia's growing isolation amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Over the past two years, Western sanctions have increasingly targeted entities and individuals worldwide, intensifying efforts to isolate Moscow on the global stage.

According to reports from Russian state media outlet Sputnik, four nations—Belarus, Iran, India, and China—have exclusively organized national exhibitions and individual stands representing defense industry enterprises.

In a post on X, Israel Katz said that as Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon continue to fight on Israel's northern and southern borders, Iran is now trying to destabilize Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA)-controlled West Bank.

Katz stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is working with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons into Jordan.

"A serious and dangerous situation is unfolding as Iran works to establish a new eastern terror front against Israel’s major population centers," he said.

"Iranian Revolutionary Guard units are collaborating with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons and funds into Jordan with the aim of destabilizing the regime."

He said that from Jordan, weapons are smuggled across the eastern border, "flooding" the West Bank, particularly refugee camps, with dangerous weapons and large sums of money, "aiming to create a pro-Iranian Islamic terror front, as they have done in Gaza, Lebanon, and other areas, targeting Tel Aviv and Israel’s major population centers".

The foreign minister said: "The Iranian axis of evil today effectively controls refugee camps in Judea and Samaria [West Bank] through its proxies, leaving the Palestinian Authority powerless to act. We must take terror hubs like the Jenin refugee camp and carry out a thorough operational campaign to dismantle the terror infrastructure in the camp."

David Schenker, a Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute said Tehran is aiming to destabilize Jordan, one of Israel's Arab allies, by inciting protests against its ruling Hashemite dynasty. He said Iran is also increasing drug and weapons smuggling through the kingdom in a bid to overthrow the monarchy and turn it into another Iran proxy state.

He said there's a strong Hamas presence in the West Bank despite being under Palestinian Authority control.

"The Iranians are incredibly incensed by Jordan's Western orientation and the fact that Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel," said Schenker, who was a former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.

Jordan has been at peace with its neighbor Israel since 1994. Amman also maintains close ties to Washington, and has a role in administering Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem.

"Iran is interfering in Jordanian internal politics," he said.

Jordan's Reaction: Diplomacy vs. Reality

Katz, Israel's Foreign Minister wrote on X that "the construction of the eastern barrier along the border with Jordan must be expedited to prevent the smuggling of weapons from Jordan into Israel, which threatens both the Jordanian regime and the State of Israel".

Jordanian Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, posted to X, seemingly in response to Katz, calling his tweet 'lies' and taking aim at Israel's war in Gaza since the Iran-backed Hamas invasion of October 7. In a single day, Hamas killed over 1,100 mostly civilians and took over 250 more hostage, sparking the longest Gaza war since Hamas took control of the strip.

"No amount of disinformation by radical Israeli officials spreading lies, including about Jordan, will change the fact that Israel’s continued aggression on Gaza, its violation of international law and the rights of the Palestinian people are the biggest threat to regional security," wrote Safadi.

Jordan's top diplomat made a rare visit to Iran on August 4, underscoring Amman's sensitive position, the first official visit of a Jordanian to Tehran in decades.

Despite the public outcry from the foreign minister, Jordan is a key ally for its Jewish neighbor. That was made clear when Jordan was part of a global coalition to thwart more than 350 missiles and drones aimed directly at Israel from Iran in April.

The Islamic Republic launched its first direct attack on Israel's soil in response to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1 that killed two IRGC generals and several senior officials.

Almost all of the missiles were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition including France, Jordan and Britain. It is believed that Saudi Arabia provided intelligence reports about Iran's plans to the US.

While Jordan must speak out against Israel in public, its diplomatic relationship with the Jewish state remains strong, not least in the area of security.

Nearly 60 percent of Jordan's population is of Palestinian origin, putting the country in a precarious position when it comes to supporting Israel publicly given the backdrop of the war against Hamas.

On Episode 10 of Iran International's English podcast 'Eye for Iran', Israeli Knesset member Amit Halevi, said Jordan and other neighboring Arab countries like Saudi Arabia appear one way diplomatically for their populace, but cooperate with Israel for their own security and well-being.

Halevi said that Iran's attempts and activities to undermine the Jordanian regime have "become high level in recent years".

Dr. Walid Phares, an expert in foreign policy and the author of 'Iran, an Imperialist Republic, and US Policy', told Iran International smuggling arms through Jordan is not new. Formed over the years, it has been facilitated since Iran effectively took over areas of Iraq, which shares a long border with Jordan.

Jordan also shares a large border with Saudi Arabia, which impacts not just the Saudis but the Kuwaitis and the UAE.

"That passage or that chunk of Jordan is really very important strategically," he said, a possible means for terrorist groups and militias to use, should there a wider regional war occur between Iran and Israel.

"If Jordan is destabilized or [was to] fall entirely or partially, either to the Iran backed militias or to the Muslim Brotherhood, we are in deep trouble internationally," said Phares, who served as a national security advisor to US Presidential nominees.

More than a few Iranian analysts have noted on Sunday and Monday that the list of 19 cabinet ministers handed to Parliament reflect selections made by Khamenei, the IRGC, and other influential power centers. This includes key lawmakers who will review the ministers' qualifications and backgrounds before giving, or withholding, their vote of confidence next week.

At least six of the newly proposed ministers served in former President Ebrahim Raisi's cabinet, either as ministers or deputy ministers. This continuity is partly due to Pezeshkian's campaign pledge to carry forward Raisi's initiatives.

More than a few including Sports and Youths Affairs and Interior ministers are backed by Parliament (Majles) Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Again, more than a few Iran analysts including Dariush Memar pointed out that the cabinet works like a private joint stock company whose board members are determined by stakeholders.

Referring to the ministers Ghalibaf has imposed on the cabinet, Memar remarked that Ghalibaf's share of appointments is so significant it feels as though he himself won the presidential election.

Farnoosh Amirshahi pointed out that the combination of the cabinet shows that rather than determining Pezeshkian's policies, they reflect shares of Iran's leadership and security organizations, and that there is very little sign to show that the President wants to deliver his promises to those who voted for him.

Nonetheless, Iranian sociologist Mohammad Fazeli, a supporter of Pezeshkian argued that 11 of the Ministers, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati and Labor Minister Ahmad Maydari are strong and defendable choices. He also pointed out that some others including Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and Justice Minister Amin Hossein Rahimi have been chosen by the hard core of the regime, meaning by Khamenei.

Journalist Faraj Sarkoohi wrote in a post on X that Pezeshkian had said clearly and repeatedly that he was going to carry out Khamenei's ideas and he did that. Meanwhile, Farzaneh Sadegh, the only woman in the list was harshly criticized by hardliners for being "an enemy of Iranian and Islamic architecture," adding that she is against mass housing projects and she was fired by the previous government for the same reason.

Iranian journalist Mazyar Khosravi wrote that although he believes the proposed cabinet is acceptable in view of the current political circumstances, he opposes some of the ministers and particularly thinks the choices of Intelligence and Interior Ministers are the government's weakest links.

Conservative journalist Mohammad Reza Mohajeri wrote that "The cabinet was supposed to become like a third cabinet for [former moderate President Hassan] Rouhani. They were carried away and they formed President Raisi's second cabinet!"

Although Pezeshkian won the presidential election thanks to Iranian Reform Camp's support, many say that there is only one known reformist figure in the cabinet: Health Minister Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi. The Reform Front's Leader Azar Mansouri and its spokesperson Javad Emam have criticized Pezeshkian for his choices and former reformist lawmaker Parvaneh Salahsouri wrote: "Pezeshkian failed in his first test. The cabinet is formed not based on merits and standards of the steering committee that was tasked to choose the ministers. It is rather formed by factional interests and "others'" intervention. Based on international experience, such cabinets are likely to be short-lived."