Iran's Reform Front Is Almost Out Of Electoral Competition
Less than 45 days before Iran's parliamentary elections, it appears that only a small segment of the reform camp is likely to take part in the restricted competition.
Less than 45 days before Iran's parliamentary elections, it appears that only a small segment of the reform camp is likely to take part in the restricted competition.
The interior ministry and the Guardian Council that vet candidates, have disqualified almost all so-called reformist and moderate candidates, paving the way for ultraconservatives to win a majority.
The left wing of reformist parties, including the Unity of Nation party, still insist that the restrictive policies of hardliners makes competition almost impossible. However, some conservatives, including Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a member of the Central Council of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party claims that reformists will present a full list of their candidates for the March 1 elections.
Like most regime politicians who have little if any idea of what a fair political competition means, Taraghi says that anyone or any group that seeks a share of political power is opposed to the formation of a strong parliament.
Nonetheless, his argument about reformists coming to the scene with full lists may carry some truth as Javad Heravi, the Spokesman for the Moderation and Development Party, which is close to former President Hassan Rouhani, told the press on Monday that the party will not venture into the elections without a full list of candidates. The party had announced earlier that it might nominate only 16 candidates for the 30 seats in Tehran as not enough of its members have been approved by the government to run for parliament.
Heravi added that there is no point in continuing consultations with the predominantly conservative supervisory institutions that vet the candidates. He said: "We had some 200 candidates but many of them have been disqualified and we have less than 100 candidates left." He added, "The ruling minority in Iran is saying very clearly that they do not want a high turnout in the elections."
He also said that his party might form a coalition with other likeminded groups to present a list of 30 candidates for Tehran and a full list for other constituencies. The Moderation and Development Party and another centrist party, the Executives of Construction, appear to be the only pro-reform parties that are keen to take part in the elections.
Meanwhile, Esmail Gerami-Moghaddam, the spokesman for the reformist National Trust Party stated that although many of its members had registered their candidacy, the number of those whose qualifications have been endorsed by the Guardian Council is so small that the party is not able to nominate any candidates in 90 percent of constituencies. He emphasized that nearly all of the candidates whose qualifications have been endorsed belong to conservative parties.
Meanwhile, conservative politician Amir-Reza Vaez-Ashtiani argued that "Reformists know they do not have grassroot support. Radicals among them, including jailed former Deputy Interior Minister Mostafa Tajzadeh, and reformist theoretician Saeed Hajjarian are now part of the opposition." However, he said, "Moderates are different. They still believe in the revolution [Islamic Republic]."
In another development, reformist politician Gholamreza Ansari said that the Unity of Nation has a voters' base and its members are active all over Iran, but its leaders have brought the reform camp on the verge of dissolution, hoping that in this way this party standing alone can win more votes from among reform-minded voters.
Despite the arguments on both sides, it is not clear if the reform camp is really divided, or it is the government and its conservative supporters who are trying to portray it as a divided group. What is clear is the seasonal nature of all political parties in Iran that are absent for almost three and half years and become active only during the parliamentary or presidential elections.
Iran - which has armed, trained and funded the Houthis - stepped up its weapons supplies to the militia in the wake of the war in Gaza, which erupted after Iranian-backed Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, four regional sources said.
Tehran has provided advanced drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, precision-strike ballistic missiles and medium-range missiles to the Houthis, who started targeting commercial vessels in November in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, the sources said.
The Houthi campaign began after Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei in early November urged Muslims to initiate a blockade of Israel.
IRGC commanders and advisers are also providing know-how, data and intelligence support to determine which of the dozens of vessels travelling through the Red Sea each day are destined for Israel and constitute Houthi targets, all the sources said.
However, Houthis have not necessarily targeted only vessels headed for Israeli ports or linked with Israel.
Washington said last month that Iran was deeply involved in planning operations against shipping in the Red Sea and that its intelligence was critical to enable the Houthis to target ships.
In his weekly news conferences, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani has repeatedly denied Tehran is involved in the Red Sea attacks.
Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam denied any Iranian or Hezbollah involvement in helping to direct the Red Sea attacks when contacted by Reuters.
Houthi attacks have affected global shipping between Asia and Europe through the Bab al-Mandab strait off Yemen. That has triggered US and British air strikes on Houthi targets in the country, opening a new theater of conflict linked to the war in Gaza.
"The Revolutionary Guards have been helping the Houthis with military training (on advanced weapons)," an Iranian insider told Reuters. "A group of Houthi fighters were in Iran last month and were trained in an IRGC base in central Iran to get familiar with the new technology and the use of missiles."
The person said Iranian commanders had travelled to Yemen as well and set up a command center in the capital Sanaa for the Red Sea attacks which is being run by the senior IRGC commander responsible for Yemen.
REGIONAL STRATEGY
The Red Sea attacks fit in with Iran's strategy of expanding and mobilizing its regional Shi'ite network of armed militias to project its influence and show its ability to threaten maritime security in the region and beyond, two analysts said.
They said Tehran wanted to show that the Gaza war could be too costly for the West if it drags on.
Tehran has avoided direct military involvement in the Gaza war, mainly using its proxy forces to project power.
"The Houthis are not acting independently," said Abdulaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, who based his conclusion on a close analysis of the capabilities of the group, which has an estimated 20,000 fighters.
"The Houthis, with their personnel, expertise and capabilities are not that advanced. Dozens of vessels cross through Bab al-Mandab daily, the Houthis don't have the means, resources, knowledge or satellite information to find the specific target and attack," he said.
White House national security spokeswoman Adrienne Watson also said last month that Iranian-provided tactical intelligence had been critical in enabling the Houthis to target ships.
According to two former Yemeni army sources, there is a clear presence of IRGC and Hezbollah members in Yemen. They are responsible for supervising military operations, training and reassembling missiles smuggled into Yemen as separate pieces, the two people said.
Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, an independent think-tank, told Reuters: "It is clearly the case that the Iranians are helping identify the target and the destination. There is no local Houthi capacity to do that."
One senior regional source who follows Iran and who spoke on condition of anonymity said: "The political decision is in Tehran, the management is Hezbollah, and the location is the Houthis in Yemen."
WEAPONS AND ADVICE
Houthi spokesperson Abdulsalam said the group's aim was to target Israeli ships heading to Israel without causing any human or significant material losses. US and British strikes on Yemen would not force them to back down, he said.
"We don't deny that we have a relationship with Iran and that we have benefited from the Iranian experience in training and military manufacturing and capabilities, but the decision taken by Yemen is an independent one that has nothing to do with any other party," he said.
But a security official close to Iran said: "The Houthis have drones, missiles and everything needed for their fight against Israel, but they needed guidance and advice on shipping routes and ships, so it has been provided to them by Iran."
When asked what kind of advice Tehran offered, he said it was similar to the advisory role taken by Iran in Syria, ranging from training to overseeing operations when needed.
"A group of Iranian Guards members are in Sanaa now to help the operations," the security official said.
Washington and Persian Gulf Arab states have repeatedly accused Iran of arming, training and financing the Houthis, who follow an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam and are aligned with Tehran as part of its anti-Western, anti-Israel "Axis of Resistance" alongside Lebanon's Hezbollah and groups in Syria and Iraq.
While Iran has denied having any direct role in the Red Sea attacks, Khamenei has praised the Houthis, saying he hoped their strikes would last "until victory".
Adapted version of an exclusive Reuters report