Iran May Be Behind Assassination Attempt On Spanish Politician
While Spain is in shock after a politician was shot in the face, Spanish media is whispering about Iran’s possible role in the assassination attempt.
While Spain is in shock after a politician was shot in the face, Spanish media is whispering about Iran’s possible role in the assassination attempt.
The former head of Spain's center-right People's Party in the Catalonia region, Alejo Vidal-Quadras, was shot on his doorstep in the wealthy Salamanca area of central Madrid at about 1.30 p.m. Thursday and taken to hospital.
The founder of the Vox party miraculously survived as a bullet passed through his jaw. Police were hunting a gunman and an accomplice who drew up near Vidal-Quadras on a black Yamaha motorcycle, shot him, then drove off. A torched motorcycle police believe was used in the attack was later found. According to local media, police believe the shooter was a professional, paid to kill the politician.
Immediately after the incident, Spanish media reported speculations of Iran’s possible involvement in the attack with claims that Vidal-Quadras told doctors and relatives post-surgery that he believes Iran is behind the hit, which was then relayed to Spanish authorities. If true, it would be an unprecedented attack by the Islamic Republic on Spanish soil.
In October 2022, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs imposed sanctions on a long list of critics for their solidarity with the popular uprising sparked by the death in custody of a young woman that came to be known as the Women, Life, Freedom movement.
Vidal-Quadras, who served as European Parliament vice-president between 2009 and 2014, was accused by Tehran of "supporting terrorism and terrorist groups and spreading violence and hatred" for his strong condemnations of the crackdown on protests by the country’s ruling circle as well as his contacts with exiled opposition group Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK). The Spaniard was among eight European entities and 12 people who were blacklisted by Tehran in retaliation to the European Union sanctions imposed on Iran.
Shahin Gobadi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the political wing of the MEK, said in a statement on Thursday that Vidal-Quadras has been a staunch supporter of the Iranian opposition movement and fight for human rights in Iran over the past 25 years.
Spain’s El Mundo daily highlighted a statement by the Iranian Embassy in Spain released within hours after the assassination attempt, condemning MEK for acts of terrorism against over “17,000 Iranian innocent victims.”
"The Iranian nation has been and is one of the largest and oldest victims of terrorism," reads the brief text, published on the social platform X (formerly twitter). The Embassy emphasized that "the fight against terrorism and bringing the perpetrators of terrorist acts to justice are defined as one of the principles and priorities of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which firmly condemns any type of terrorist operation.”
El Mundo quoted MEK leader Maryam Rajavi as saying that it is “clear” that “the main suspect is the religious fascism that has power in Iran.”
Spanish online newspaper El Español also wrote of “the shadow of the ayatollahs” in the assassination attempt, citing police sources as saying that Vidal-Quadras himself has indicated that in his work as a lawyer he handled cases related to the opposition to the Islamic Republic regime.
He emphasized that without re-injecting gas into oil deposits, some fields might become unproductive, leading to substantial economic losses for the country's oil sector.
Reports from Iran's Ministry of Oil and the US Energy Information Administration indicate that 80 percent of Iran's oil production comes from aging fields facing pressure drops, resulting in an annual production decline of 8 to 10 percent.
To prevent a rapid decline in oil production, Iran needs to re-inject nearly 300 million cubic meters of gas per day (mcm/d) into its old oil deposits. However, the latest available official data reveals that the actual daily gas re-injection in 2018 was less than 37 million cubic meters. The situation must have deteriorated even further in the past five years, as gas production rapidly declines.
Additionally, the semi-official Fars news agency reported in June 2023 that only 10% of the required gas is being re-injected into the aging fields currently, reflecting a significant decline in gas re-injection to under 30 mcm/d. This gas deficit poses a severe threat to Iran's oil production and requires urgent attention to avoid economic repercussions.
According to estimates from the Parliament's Research Center and the Ministry of Oil, Iran has injected an average of 70 mcm/d into its oil fields during the last three decades. However, this re-injection rate has sharply declined since 2015.
Iran’s gas production is declining because of decades of inadequate investments and lack of Western technology to increase extraction in Iran's main under water gas fields in the Persian Gulf. Years of various sanctions and mismanagement have prevented the necessary upgrades of gas platforms.
This reduction is concerning, given the growing need for gas re-injection to maintain oil production levels, which should reach around 300 mcm/d due to more fields entering the second half of their lifespan since 2005.
This reduction is concerning, given the growing need for gas re-injection to maintain oil production levels, which should reach around 300 mcm/d due to more fields entering the second half of their lifespan since 2005.
Currently, the average daily gas injection into these fields is below 30 million cubic meters. Inadequate gas injection not only leads to a decline in oil production but also leaves a substantial portion of oil reserves permanently unrecoverable within the soil.
For instance, Iran's oil fields with 650 billion barrels of oil reserves, typically have a recovery rate of about 20%, meaning only 20% of the oil can be extracted under normal conditions. Over the past two decades, gas re-injection of 70 mcm/d and 250,000 barrels of brackish water has increased Iran's oil field recovery rate from 20% to 24%, meaning Iran’s recoverable oil reserves stands at 156 billion barrels.
With sufficient gas re-injection, this rate could reach 27-28%, potentially adding around 20 billion barrels to Iran's extractable oil reserves. Considering the current market values, this additional oil would be worth over $1.5 trillion.
Iran has only tried to compensate for declining oil production by drilling more wells and developing new oil fields over the past two decades.
However, following last winter's gas deficit of 250 mcm/d, 50 mcm/d more than in 2020, this winter is anticipated to experience a gas deficit of around 300 mcm/d.
Iran, with 33 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, ranks second globally after Russia. Its annual gas production is approximately 260 billion cubic meters, with 18 billion cubic meters exported to Turkey and Iraq. Due to gas shortage and continuance of its gas exports, Iran's domestic oil product consumption experienced close to 10% growth last year.
Dr Umud Shokri, Energy Strategist and Senior Visiting Fellow at George Mason University
Dalga Khatinoglu, Azerbaijani expert on Iran’s energy issues