Regional Implications Of US-Iran Deal Pose Questions

As part of a secretive deal reached with Iran’s regime, the Biden administration will funnel $6 billion in sanctioned oil revenue to Tehran in exchange for the release of five unjustly detained Americans. The US government will also free jailed Iranians as part of the controversial deal.

Gen. (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, now a senior researcher at the Israeli Defense Security Forum, said “Money is fungible” and added the amount of money that will be sent to Iran is, according to media reports, more than $6 billion.

The Islamic Republic “can use the money to fund terrorist proxies and armaments,” said Kuperwasser, who was the former head of the Research Division at the Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Corps.

He noted the hostage payment deal is “acquiescence to the Iranian policy of kidnapping to force the International community to do what it wants.”

Kuperwasser cited the example of the clerical regime seizing the Belgian aid worker Oliver Vandecasteele as a hostage. The Belgium government released the convicted Iranian terrorist Assadollah Asadi in exchange for Vandecasteele.

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He said the current deal is “another sign to accept the malign behavior of the Iranian regime. The IRGC has not yet been proscribed as a terrorist organization by the Europeans and the United Kingdom.” Kuperwasser, who was also the Director General of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, said the Western countries “are not doing anything to enrage the mullah regime.”

He continued that “This is a dangerous situation. The international community allows Iran to be a [nuclear] threshold state.” Kuperwasser outlined the three pre-conditions for Iran’s atomic weapons program.

He said,“the fissile material is there” for Iran’s nuclear weapons program and the “delivery system is basically there,” adding that only “The weaponization is missing.” Iran has amassed enough enriched uranium for at least two nuclear weapons, experts say.

Kuperwasser said against the backdrop of the astonishingly fast progress Iran’s regime has made with respect to its nuclear weapons program, the hostage payment deal worries the Israeli security establishment.

He noted that Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement about the hostage agreement, in which he scorned the deal that will pump $6 billon into the coffers of the clerical regime. Netanyahu said Israel’s policy against the Iranian regime will not be sidelined by Biden’s efforts to reach a new nuclear deal with Tehran.

Iran International reported in June that European intelligence agencies issued a batch of reports, documenting Iran’s attempts to obtain nuclear weapons technology in 2022. According to the Netherlands General and Intelligence Security Service (AVID), the Islamic Republic’s highly advanced and fast-moving enrichment of weapons-grade uranium “brings the option of a passible Iranian first nuclear test closer.” The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) first located and translated the European intelligence documents.

Last week, Iran International reported that critics of Biden’s new deal to free American hostages say it will only emboldens the Iranian regime’s hostage-taking policy.

Kupperwasser said in October more sanctions will be lifted on Iran’s regime at the UN. Ballistic missile sanctions imposed on Iran in a 2015 UN resolution will expire on October 18. 

Iranian media and some observers on both sides say domestic politics in both countries can affect the deal's fate.

Qasem Mohebali, told Didban Iran [Iran Monitor] website that any permanent and official deal between Iran and the United States is unlikely before the US presidential elections. 

Asked whether Iran deserved an "oil for food" deal, Mohebali said, "Iranian officials should have thought of this before their policies led to its nuclear case being referred to the UN Security Council. 

Iran has effectively lost its political and financial independence after its nuclear case was handed over to United Nations Security Council, he said, and a series of resolutions were issued against it (2006-2012). Mohebali argued that at the present time also Iran has little control over its international economic and financial transactions, as other states decide what it can have and to what extent.

As regards possible links between the prisoner swap and nuclear negotiations, Mohebali said these are two different issues. The prisoner swap is important for the United States from a humanitarian perspective and Iran is interested in repatriating its money. But the nuclear negotiations must be discussed within a different context. 

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He added that the prisoner swap will be a positive point for US President Joe Biden and other US Democrats although there is still a long way before the elections. Iran and the United States have many different matters to discuss, the former diplomat pointed out, including the nuclear issue, the Middle east, human rights, missile development, terrorism and most recently Iran's contribution to Russia's war against Ukraine. Every single one of these issues should be dealt with separately, a package deal involving all of them looks is not very likely. 

Mohebali added, it is unlikely that Iran and the United States start negotiations about these matters before 2025 after the US elections. Iran is not certain about the policies of the next administration and is not certain if it will stand by an agreement with the Biden Administration. 

"What US government is currently doing is helping innocent individuals to get out of prison. However, its political rivals might question the payments made during the swap. At the same time, others accuse the US of taking Iran's assets hostage. Still others might ask whether the prisoners to be released are Iranians or US citizens," Mohebali explained. 

Meanwhile, in an article about what might go wrong in a deal between Iran and the US, proreform website Fararu wrote: "The test agreement to secure the release of Iran's assets and the freedom of prisoners in the two countries might come across problems and its entirety could come under a shadow of doubt during the weeks before it is finalized."

The website argued that despite the apparent diplomatic victory, it is still too early to be optimistic about the deal. One of the hindrances might be the deployment of US Marines to oversee shipping along the Strait of Hormuz. 

Referring to Qatar's role in forging the Iran-US deal, Fararu wrote that Doha does not want to see any tension between Iran and the United States. Nonetheless, despite Qatar's help, there is still the danger of a conflict between Iran and Washington in the volatile Persian Gulf.

According to Fararu, at the same time, domestic politics both in Iran and the United States can make matters complicated. The Biden Administration has already been accused by some US lawmakers and others of bribing the Islamic Republic. In an August 14 tweet, Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council wrote that she told AFP: "if a hostage deal is implemented around the Mahsa Amini protests anniversary, it'll be a win for the clerical establishment. Doing a deal with the United States around such a sensitive period is, in essence, communicating to protesters that Washington doesn't care about their plight.”

Meanwhile, United Against of Nuclear Iran (UANI) on the same date quoted the White House Spokesman as having said that "Iran will only be able to use the $6 billion [released by South Korea] for “humanitarian purposes.” However, UANI asked: “In a competition for the funds between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the public health of the Iranian people, who do you think wins?”

The two regional heavyweights seek to overcome past hostility and regional tensions, such as rivalry in Yemen or Iran’s attempts to establish military domination in the Persian Gulf..

"Relations between Tehran and Saudi are on the right track and we are witnessing progress," Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a joint news conference with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan, adding that "the talks were successful".

His visit to the kingdom comes months after Prince Faisal met with Iranian officials in Tehran in June on his first trip to Iran after a China-brokered deal between the regional rivals in March to resume ties.

Under the deal, Tehran and Riyadh agreed to end a diplomatic rift and reestablish relations following years of hostility that had endangered regional stability in the Persian Gulf, as well as in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

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Saudi Arabia broke ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters attacked its embassy in Tehran in retaliation for Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

"We had good discussions over a broad range of issues during our meetings today," Amir-Abdollahian said.

Prince Faisal said the kingdom hoped to see Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi visit the kingdom following King Salman bin Abdulaziz's invitation, which he had communicated during the June visit. Raisi has said he would travel to the kingdom at the "appropriate time".

Prince Faisal said the kingdom was keen to follow through with all main points of the China-brokered deal whether economic or political, adding the countries' ambassadors will start in their positions in their respective embassies after their reopening.

In June, Iran officially reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia and Iranian state media reported earlier this month that the kingdom's embassy in Tehran had resumed operations.

"We look forward to a new phase in our relationship based on our Islamic brotherhood and work towards common interests," Prince Faisal said, adding that he welcomed Iran's endorsement of Riyadh's bid to host Expo 2030.

The United States has been engaged in an effort to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and expand the Abraham Accords launched under the Trump administration in 2020, when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, close Saudi allies, established ties with Israel.

Iran, suffering from a serious economic crisis and isolation, has opted to release US hostages it has detained for years in exchange for Washington agreeing to free its frozen assets from Iraq and South Korea. Many observers believe that unblocking the assets goes further than a prisoner exchange deal and might be aimed at an informal arrangement whereby Iran refrains from escalating its nuclear program.

Reporting by Reuters

"There is a heightened threat, a heightened risk to regional mariners in terms of seizures" by Iran in the strait, Commander Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the US Navy's Fifth Fleet said Wednesday.

A deal announced a week ago will see five US citizens held hostage in Iran to leave the country in exchange for the United States agreeing to release $6 billion dollars of Iranian funds frozen in South Korea due to sanctions.

The deal is said to be a first step to reduce tensions with Tehran, but the US Navy has been beefing up it forces in the Persian Gulf to prevent attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on commercial shipping, especially in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Right now, our focus is on … increasing our presence in and near the Strait of Hormuz to ensure security and stability in a very critical waterway," Hawkins told AFP at the US Naval base in Bahrain. This casts a shadow of doubt on the theory that tensions with Iran would ebb by a prisoner release in return for its frozen assets.

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This is the second warning issued by the US Navy in less than a week, when a naval coalition in the region led by the United States warned ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters.

"The International Maritime Security Construct is notifying regional mariners of appropriate precautions to minimize the risk of seizure based on current regional tensions, which we seek to de-escalate," Commander Timothy Hawkins, spokesman for the Bahrain-based US Fifth Fleet, said late on Saturday. The US Navy has deployed squadrons of F-16 and F-18 warplanes, more warships, and Marines to its forces in the region since early July, a sign of serious concern over Iran’s intentions.

However, multiple media reports indicate that the deal to release $6 billion from South Korea for the US hostages might be the prelude to more informal agreements between Tehran and Washington. In fact, the US has also agreed to Iraq releasing around $11 billion of Iranian funds frozen at its banks, and Japan appears to be the next country to release $3 billion.

The Biden administration on a track of secret talks to convince Tehran to perhaps put a temporary cap on its uranium enrichment, denies any informal deals.

The State Department without denying secret talks said, “we are not close to any kind of deal. We do not have any kind of agreement.” A spokesperson asked during a press briefing to categorically deny that there is an unwritten or informal understanding with Iran said, “Iran must first de-escalate to create any kind of space for future diplomacy. But at this time, we have – do not have any kind of agreement on any purported nuclear agenda.”

However, The Wall Street Journal reported August 11 that “Iran has significantly slowed the pace at which it is accumulating near-weapons-grade enriched uranium and has diluted some of its stockpile.” Also, if there were no secret deals beyond the release of hostages, the US would have hardly agreed to the release of $11 billion from Iraq and possibly more from Japan. Without a larger deal, the total amount would mean that the Biden administration paid more than $3 billion for each hostage, a historic ransom.

Whether Washington reached only a hostage deal with Tehran or a wider informal nuclear agreement, it knows that none of these means Theran has deescalated. Hence the warnings to commercial ships traversing the Persian Gulf.

This is the first time the two nations' military representatives have met since Riyadh and Tehran agreed to resume diplomatic relations.

According to an official announcement from the Ministry of Defense of Saudi Arabia, Talal bin Abdullah Al-Otaibi, the Deputy Minister of Defense, engaged in a productive discussion with Aziz Nasirzadeh, the Deputy Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces of Iran. This dialogue took place during the 11th Moscow International Security Conference, organized under the patronage of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The IRNA state news agency reported that the primary focus of the meeting was to underscore the commitment of both nations to the China-brokered agreement that restored diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March.

One of the significant outcomes of this meeting was the mutual decision to facilitate the expedited exchange of military affiliates between the two countries, added IRNA.

This thawing of relations comes against the backdrop of years of severed ties between Tehran and Riyadh, originating from the organized attack on Saudi Arabia's diplomatic installations in Tehran and Mashhad in 2016. Tensions escalated in the proceeding years, with notable incidents including the Houthi-led assault on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019. While Saudi Arabia attributed the attack and related maritime incidents to the Islamic Republic, Tehran consistently refuted these allegations.