Exclusive-Pressure Not Modest Deals Will Deter Nuclear Iran, Expert Says
Nuclear proliferation expert David Albright has told Iran International that military pressure, not “modest deals”, are needed to keep Iran’s nuclear developments at bay.
Nuclear proliferation expert David Albright has told Iran International that military pressure, not “modest deals”, are needed to keep Iran’s nuclear developments at bay.
Speaking in an exclusive interview, the President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said that in addition to the work being done by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran needs “a credible military threat” to keep convincing the regime not to cross the line to build nuclear weapons.
“It requires real attention, and the United States administration is going to have to continue, and I would say increase its efforts to push Iran away from building nuclear weapons,” he said.
As revelations continue about the resumption of US-Iran talks to make progress on the issue of Tehran’s nuclear program, Albright warned of deals which in the long term, may do more harm than good to efforts to disarm the regime.
Both Tehran and Washington have denied negotiating for an interim nuclear deal.
“I think they [the Biden administration] can do it [but] I think they're conflicted and I think it's the responsibility of Congress and the public to put pressure on the Biden administration to increase their activities against the Iranian regime and in that process, avoid any deals that may in the short run relieve some of the pressure, but in the long run make the situation worse,” he warned.
While he says Iran can be kept in check and believes the regime does not possess secret underground facilities which have evaded the eyes of the IAEA’s inspectors, the US cannot afford to turn away. As it focuses increasingly on China and disengages from the Middle East, it is not a realistic policy in a volatile region which needs constant attention.
“Modest deals to lower the temperature” will not be enough, he said. “The Middle East is complicated … you may want to ignore it but it's not going to ignore you”.
The regime understands that while building nuclear weapons has some positive aspects, it comes with huge risks, and Albright claims the regime is well aware of this, meaning it too must tread carefully.
“I think Iran can be stopped,” he said. “They haven't made the decision to build nuclear weapons. They increased their capabilities to produce weapon grade uranium. If they wanted, they could take the existing stockpiles of 20 and 60% enriched uranium and make enough weapon grade uranium for five nuclear weapons in a month but that doesn't mean they'll do it.”
However, having the fissile material is the first step and within as little as six months to a year, Iran could make a nuclear weapon, meaning the US and its allies must keep the pressure on the regime to ensure it does not cross the line.
Publicly, the US continues to deny any deals or new rounds of talks with Iran, after revelations disclosed meetings in Oman this month. At the State Department press briefing this week, a very uncomfortable spokesman Matthew Miller tried to evade questions pressing him on the nature of talks, which he brushed off as “false” and “misleading”.
However, speaking to the New York Times this week, Ali Vaez, the Iran director for the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization, said talks are merely an attempt to calm tensions rather than strike a new deal, the goal to “put a lid on any activity that basically crosses a red line or puts either party in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilizes the status quo” and “create time and space to discuss the future diplomacy and the nuclear deal”.
The renewed US focus on Iran’s nuclear program a year after talks broke down comes amid growing concern within the Biden administration that Tehran could precipitate a crisis by further increasing its uranium enrichment.
Former White House Middle East policy advisor, Dennis Ross, told the New York Times: “The US seems to be making clear to Iran that if you go to 90 percent, you’re going to pay a hell of a price.”
“They want the priority and focus to remain on Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “Having a war in the Mideast, where you know how it starts but you don’t know how it ends, that’s the last thing they want.”
In a short tweet in Persian, Bagheri-Kani who is also the deputy foreign minister, did not provide any details but there have been numerous media reports recently of contacts between Iran and the United States.
The three European countries are signatories of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord and have remained in the defunct agreement after the United States pulled out in 2018. During the Biden administration, however, their diplomatic approach has been more closely coordinated with Washington.
Western and Israeli reports, generally relying on anonymous diplomatic sources, say that Washington is exploring the idea of an interim nuclear deal with Tehran – possibly unwritten – that would aim to limit or cap the current dangerous levels of uranium enrichment in exchange for allowing other countries to release Iran’s blocked funds. Some have also suggested that beyond that the US might allow a limited amount of Iranian oil to be exported.
A second issue that has been the focus of contacts is US and Western demands that Tehran should free all prisoners it has arrested for no valid reason and essentially has jailed as hostages.
Neither Washington nor Tehran have denied meetings and contacts. In fact, the US State Department has repeatedly said it has its channels to relay messages to Tehran.
The Iranian foreign ministry Monday denied that an interim nuclear deal has been reached, although it did not deny that talks may be taking place.
Reuters quoted a US official also on Monday as saying that the United States and Iran are not discussing an interim nuclear deal, but Washington has told Tehran of steps that might trigger a crisis and those that may create a better climate between the long-time antagonists.
"There are no talks about an interim deal," said the US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"We have made clear to them what escalatory steps they needed to avoid to prevent a crisis and what de-escalatory steps they could take to create a more positive context," he said, declining to detail these but noting Washington would like to see greater Iranian cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
Reuters said that his comment went further than a US denial last week, which called a report the nations were nearing an interim deal "false and misleading" and said reports of such a deal were "false" but did not deny the possibility of talks about one.
The official did not deny media reports of recent US-Iranian contacts but rather said that suggestions they were about an interim nuclear deal were inaccurate.
Also, on Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his position that Iran is the biggest threat to his country’s security, and no agreement with Tehran will be binding on Israel.
“Over 90% of our security problems stem from Iran and its proxies, and our policy is aimed at increasing the circle of peace, to stop Iran and its proxies.”
Speaking at the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Netanyahu said our position is clear: No agreement with Iran will be binding on Israel, which will continue to do everything to defend itself. Our opposition to a return to the original agreement, I think it is working, but there are still differences of outlook and we do not hide them, also about smaller agreements. We enunciate our policy clearly both openly and in closed rooms.
Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the Iranian Parliament's Foreign Policy and national Security Committee who often commentates on nuclear-related issues, claimed that Tehran and Washington are willing to agree to an “unwritten deal”.
“This means that the American side will no longer enforce the ‘maximum pressure’ policy [of the Trump administration], close its eyes to some of Iran's energy deals, and [allow] the release of Iran's frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level,” he told Khabar Online in Tehran.
Falahatpisheh also said a return to the JCPOA is no longer desired by either of the sides because both know that it can no longer be revived.
A return to the 2015 deal, he said, will force Tehran to give up much of the advancements it has made in its nuclear program at a very high cost, that is, giving up its new and more advanced centrifuges and a stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium, banned under the JCPOA.
Also, the pressure of public opinion in the US has made a return to the deal impossible for the Biden administration, he argued.
Falahatpisheh also said the US may agree to Iran selling one million barrels of oil per day.
Referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s implicit endorsement of some kind of agreement, the moderate conservative former lawmaker told Khabar Online that Khamenei’s stance was “close to the views of moderates such as Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who was the lead Iranian person in the 2015 deal.
Addressing a group of Iranian nuclear scientists and officials in Tehran Sunday, Khamenei said a deal with West can be accepted if it does not impact Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and insisted that Iran will not opt for nuclear weapons simply because of Islamic principles, “otherwise, they could not have prevented us.”
Many in Iran interpret Khamenei’s remarks as endorsement of an deal, similar to his 2013 implicit endorsement of talks that led to the signing of the JCPOA. This interpretation was reflected by a slight drop in forex rates: The dollar which stood at 490,000 rial against the rial Sunday dropped to 470,000 on Monday.
"I'm not opposed to the right diplomatic moves. I believe in what was described years ago as heroic flexibility," Khamenei said in a September 17 speech to Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commanders.
“Heroic flexibility” in dealing with the West regarding the nuclear issue, he said, was similar to a wrestler exercising flexibility as a tactic to overcome his adversary, but insisted that Iranian diplomats had to remain faithful to the Islamic Republic’s principles. "A wrestler who exercises flexibility for a tactical reason should not forget who his rival is and what his goal is," he said.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, however, on Monday rejected speculations about an interim deal with the US. “We confirm no such thing as negotiations for an interim agreement or new arrangements to replace the nuclear deal,” he told reporters at his weekly press conference.
While confirming that Tehran and Washington had held talks in Muscat, Oman, in the past few weeks, he also denied that the talks had been held secretly as alleged by the media.
Kanaani also said Monday that Tehran and Washington could be “very close to exchanging prisoners” without giving any details.
On Saturday a senior Iraqi official was quoted as saying that his country has acquired a sanctions waiver from the US to pay $2.7 billion of its debt for gas and electricity to Iran. The release of Iranian funds in Iraq could be the price for the release of American, and possibly other western hostages, held by Iran.
Speaking during his weekly press conference on Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said: “We confirm no such thing as negotiations for an interim agreement or new arrangements to replace the nuclear deal.”
Despite the fact that Tehran’s extraneous demands collapsed the Vienna talks, Kanaani claimed that “Iran’s government has never left the negotiation table and has shown its readiness to conduct serious and substantive negotiations in order to reach a conclusion” on reviving the nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
His remarks came only a day after Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei said reaching a deal would be acceptable if the country’s nuclear infrastructure remains intact. Echoing Khamenei’s remarks, Kanaani reiterated that Iran will continue to rely primarily on trying to neutralize sanctions as it does not trust the West, and at the same time, pursue negotiations to have them removed altogether.
Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear pact in 2018, and imposed tighter sanctions on Iran’s energy exports but Tehran has since ramped up nuclear enrichment.
After much speculation, Kanaani also confirmed reports about talks between Iran and the US through Oman in the past few weeks, claiming the Muscat talks were not secret, but an opportunity to defend Iran's national interests.
“We welcomed the mediation proposal put forward by senior Omani officials several weeks ago, and exchanged messages with the opposite side [US], with the aim of activating the ‘sanctions removal’ talks,” he said, using the Islamic Republic’s jargon for Vienna talks.
His claim was also repeated by Mohammad Marandi, a de facto spokesman for the regime who said in an interview with Qatar-based TV channel Al Araby that there have been no secret negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Offering an insight into details of the secret discussions, Marandi, a US citizen close to Tehran's leadership, indicated there are more than nuclear issues on the table. “There is no direct negotiation between Iran and the United States but indirect negotiations are held by sending messages via third parties, and all of the messages are related to the issue of prisoners and assets that the United States has seized," he said.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman also revealed in his presser on Monday that Tehran and Washington are close to a prisoner-swap agreement.
He said that although the Islamic Republic is engaging with the US through intermediaries about prisoner swaps, the two could be “very close” to an agreement. “We hope to see the exchange of prisoners because we made all the necessary efforts,” he added.
On Friday, Axios revealed details of the talks between American and Iranian officials in Muscat last month with Omani mediators shuttling between their separate rooms to deliver messages.
According to the Axios report, the “proximity talks,” which have not been previously reported, represent the first known indirect engagement between Tehran and Washington in this way in several months. White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani were among the officials who traveled to Oman secretly for talks.
The report came after the London-based news outlet Middle East Eye claimed Iran and the United States “are nearing a temporary deal that would swap some sanctions relief for reducing Iranian uranium enrichment activities.”
Khamenei who was addressing a group of Iranian nuclear scientists and officials in Tehran also claimed that Iran will not opt for nuclear weapons simply because of Islamic principles, “otherwise, they could not have prevented us.”
Tehran’s nuclear program, which has almost reached the threshold of weaponization, is quite controversial among Iranians, with many blaming the resulting sanctions for ruining the economy and impoverishing tens of millions of people.
Apparently, cognizant of the is fact, Khamenei said, “If you want a powerful Iran, all those who love Iran and the Islamic Republic, everyone who loves the nation and aspires for the power of this country, should regard this nuclear scientific, research and industrial effort as important.”
His use of nationalist slogans was clearly meant to garner some support among the population, with what is seen as a small minority of loyalists supporting the regime.
Iran’s nuclear program once again became a highly controversial international issue when former US President withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA accord, demanding a tougher agreement and a change of behavior by Iran that was fomenting trouble across the Middle East.
President Joe Biden quickly signaled his intention to return to the JCPOA, but Iran that had reacted relatively cautiously to Trump’s move, began to up the ante in December 2020, by passing a law to increase uranium enrichment first to 20 and then to 60-percent purity by early 2021.
Western officials and experts say that there is no justifiable civilian use for 60-percent enriched uranium. The only likely purpose is to purify uranium to 90 percent needed for assembling a bomb.
Negotiations that began in April of that year to revive the JCPOA came to an impasse in 2022, and Iran continued to accumulate enriched uranium. American officials believe that Tehran would be able to weaponize in just a few months if it decides to go nuclear.
In the light of recent reports about secret talks to reach some sort of a limited deal, whereby Iran would cap its uranium enrichment, Khamenei said, “It is possible that they [the West] would want to reach an agreement in some areas, but the nuclear infrastructure should not be affected.”
Iran has deployed thousands of advanced enrichment machines known as centrifuges in the past two years that can turn out enough 90-percent purified fissile material for a bomb in just two weeks. Even an agreement to freeze enrichment now, would leave Iran in the advantageous position of remaining at the nuclear threshold.
Any limited agreement, which the US has denied, would most likely leave these centrifuges in place.
Despite Washington’s denials there are signs of some steps signaling attempts to somewhat reduce the extent of disagreement.
Reports on Saturday indicated that the Biden administration has allowed Iraq to make available $2.7 billion of Iranian funds blocked in Iraqi banks due to US sanctions. This is so far the largest tranche of money Washington has allowed to be released, although it has been suspicious of Iranian machinations in Iraq to launder money.
Khamenei also reiterated his long-held position that the West and UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cannot be trusted.
Any negotiation or nuclear agreement should receive Khamenei’s approval, since he has the final say in all important political, military and economic issues, as the Supreme Leader.