Exclusive-Pressure Not Modest Deals Will Deter Nuclear Iran, Expert Says

In a short tweet in Persian, Bagheri-Kani who is also the deputy foreign minister, did not provide any details but there have been numerous media reports recently of contacts between Iran and the United States.

The three European countries are signatories of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord and have remained in the defunct agreement after the United States pulled out in 2018. During the Biden administration, however, their diplomatic approach has been more closely coordinated with Washington.

Western and Israeli reports, generally relying on anonymous diplomatic sources, say that Washington is exploring the idea of an interim nuclear deal with Tehran – possibly unwritten – that would aim to limit or cap the current dangerous levels of uranium enrichment in exchange for allowing other countries to release Iran’s blocked funds. Some have also suggested that beyond that the US might allow a limited amount of Iranian oil to be exported.

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A second issue that has been the focus of contacts is US and Western demands that Tehran should free all prisoners it has arrested for no valid reason and essentially has jailed as hostages.

Neither Washington nor Tehran have denied meetings and contacts. In fact, the US State Department has repeatedly said it has its channels to relay messages to Tehran.

The Iranian foreign ministry Monday denied that an interim nuclear deal has been reached, although it did not deny that talks may be taking place.

Reuters quoted a US official also on Monday as saying that the United States and Iran are not discussing an interim nuclear deal, but Washington has told Tehran of steps that might trigger a crisis and those that may create a better climate between the long-time antagonists.

"There are no talks about an interim deal," said the US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"We have made clear to them what escalatory steps they needed to avoid to prevent a crisis and what de-escalatory steps they could take to create a more positive context," he said, declining to detail these but noting Washington would like to see greater Iranian cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

Reuters said that his comment went further than a US denial last week, which called a report the nations were nearing an interim deal "false and misleading" and said reports of such a deal were "false" but did not deny the possibility of talks about one.

The official did not deny media reports of recent US-Iranian contacts but rather said that suggestions they were about an interim nuclear deal were inaccurate.

Also, on Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his position that Iran is the biggest threat to his country’s security, and no agreement with Tehran will be binding on Israel.

“Over 90% of our security problems stem from Iran and its proxies, and our policy is aimed at increasing the circle of peace, to stop Iran and its proxies.”

Speaking at the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Netanyahu said our position is clear: No agreement with Iran will be binding on Israel, which will continue to do everything to defend itself. Our opposition to a return to the original agreement, I think it is working, but there are still differences of outlook and we do not hide them, also about smaller agreements. We enunciate our policy clearly both openly and in closed rooms.

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the Iranian Parliament's Foreign Policy and national Security Committee who often commentates on nuclear-related issues, claimed that Tehran and Washington are willing to agree to an “unwritten deal”. 

“This means that the American side will no longer enforce the ‘maximum pressure’ policy [of the Trump administration], close its eyes to some of Iran's energy deals, and [allow] the release of Iran's frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level,” he told Khabar Online in Tehran. 

Falahatpisheh also said a return to the JCPOA is no longer desired by either of the sides because both know that it can no longer be revived. 

A return to the 2015 deal, he said, will force Tehran to give up much of the advancements it has made in its nuclear program at a very high cost, that is, giving up its new and more advanced centrifuges and a stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium, banned under the JCPOA. 

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Also, the pressure of public opinion in the US has made a return to the deal impossible for the Biden administration, he argued. 

Falahatpisheh also said the US may agree to Iran selling one million barrels of oil per day. 

Referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s implicit endorsement of some kind of agreement, the moderate conservative former lawmaker told Khabar Online that Khamenei’s stance was “close to the views of moderates such as Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who was the lead Iranian person in the 2015 deal. 

Addressing a group of Iranian nuclear scientists and officials in Tehran Sunday, Khamenei said a deal with West can be accepted if it does not impact Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and insisted that Iran will not opt for nuclear weapons simply because of Islamic principles, “otherwise, they could not have prevented us.”

Many in Iran interpret Khamenei’s remarks as endorsement of an deal, similar to his 2013 implicit endorsement of talks that led to the signing of the JCPOA. This interpretation was reflected by a slight drop in forex rates: The dollar which stood at 490,000 rial against the rial Sunday dropped to 470,000 on Monday. 

"I'm not opposed to the right diplomatic moves. I believe in what was described years ago as heroic flexibility," Khamenei said in a September 17 speech to Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commanders. 

“Heroic flexibility” in dealing with the West regarding the nuclear issue, he said, was similar to a wrestler exercising flexibility as a tactic to overcome his adversary, but insisted that Iranian diplomats had to remain faithful to the Islamic Republic’s principles. "A wrestler who exercises flexibility for a tactical reason should not forget who his rival is and what his goal is," he said.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, however, on Monday rejected speculations about an interim deal with the US. “We confirm no such thing as negotiations for an interim agreement or new arrangements to replace the nuclear deal,” he told reporters at his weekly press conference. 

While confirming that Tehran and Washington had held talks in Muscat, Oman, in the past few weeks, he also denied that the talks had been held secretly as alleged by the media. 

Kanaani also said Monday that Tehran and Washington could be “very close to exchanging prisoners” without giving any details. 

On Saturday a senior Iraqi official was quoted as saying that his country has acquired a sanctions waiver from the US to pay $2.7 billion of its debt for gas and electricity to Iran. The release of Iranian funds in Iraq could be the price for the release of American, and possibly other western hostages, held by Iran. 

Speaking during his weekly press conference on Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said: “We confirm no such thing as negotiations for an interim agreement or new arrangements to replace the nuclear deal.”

Despite the fact that Tehran’s extraneous demands collapsed the Vienna talks, Kanaani claimed that “Iran’s government has never left the negotiation table and has shown its readiness to conduct serious and substantive negotiations in order to reach a conclusion” on reviving the nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

His remarks came only a day after Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei said reaching a deal would be acceptable if the country’s nuclear infrastructure remains intact. Echoing Khamenei’s remarks, Kanaani reiterated that Iran will continue to rely primarily on trying to neutralize sanctions as it does not trust the West, and at the same time, pursue negotiations to have them removed altogether.

Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear pact in 2018, and imposed tighter sanctions on Iran’s energy exports but Tehran has since ramped up nuclear enrichment.

After much speculation, Kanaani also confirmed reports about talks between Iran and the US through Oman in the past few weeks, claiming the Muscat talks were not secret, but an opportunity to defend Iran's national interests.

“We welcomed the mediation proposal put forward by senior Omani officials several weeks ago, and exchanged messages with the opposite side [US], with the aim of activating the ‘sanctions removal’ talks,” he said, using the Islamic Republic’s jargon for Vienna talks.

His claim was also repeated by Mohammad Marandi, a de facto spokesman for the regime who said in an interview with Qatar-based TV channel Al Araby that there have been no secret negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

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Offering an insight into details of the secret discussions, Marandi, a US citizen close to Tehran's leadership, indicated there are more than nuclear issues on the table. “There is no direct negotiation between Iran and the United States but indirect negotiations are held by sending messages via third parties, and all of the messages are related to the issue of prisoners and assets that the United States has seized," he said.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman also revealed in his presser on Monday that Tehran and Washington are close to a prisoner-swap agreement.

He said that although the Islamic Republic is engaging with the US through intermediaries about prisoner swaps, the two could be “very close” to an agreement. “We hope to see the exchange of prisoners because we made all the necessary efforts,” he added. 

On Friday, Axios revealed details of the talks between American and Iranian officials in Muscat last month with Omani mediators shuttling between their separate rooms to deliver messages.

According to the Axios report, the “proximity talks,” which have not been previously reported, represent the first known indirect engagement between Tehran and Washington in this way in several months. White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani were among the officials who traveled to Oman secretly for talks.

The report came after the London-based news outlet Middle East Eye claimed Iran and the United States “are nearing a temporary deal that would swap some sanctions relief for reducing Iranian uranium enrichment activities.”

Khamenei who was addressing a group of Iranian nuclear scientists and officials in Tehran also claimed that Iran will not opt for nuclear weapons simply because of Islamic principles, “otherwise, they could not have prevented us.”

Tehran’s nuclear program, which has almost reached the threshold of weaponization, is quite controversial among Iranians, with many blaming the resulting sanctions for ruining the economy and impoverishing tens of millions of people.

Apparently, cognizant of the is fact, Khamenei said, “If you want a powerful Iran, all those who love Iran and the Islamic Republic, everyone who loves the nation and aspires for the power of this country, should regard this nuclear scientific, research and industrial effort as important.”

His use of nationalist slogans was clearly meant to garner some support among the population, with what is seen as a small minority of loyalists supporting the regime.

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Iran’s nuclear program once again became a highly controversial international issue when former US President withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA accord, demanding a tougher agreement and a change of behavior by Iran that was fomenting trouble across the Middle East.

President Joe Biden quickly signaled his intention to return to the JCPOA, but Iran that had reacted relatively cautiously to Trump’s move, began to up the ante in December 2020, by passing a law to increase uranium enrichment first to 20 and then to 60-percent purity by early 2021.

Western officials and experts say that there is no justifiable civilian use for 60-percent enriched uranium. The only likely purpose is to purify uranium to 90 percent needed for assembling a bomb.

Negotiations that began in April of that year to revive the JCPOA came to an impasse in 2022, and Iran continued to accumulate enriched uranium. American officials believe that Tehran would be able to weaponize in just a few months if it decides to go nuclear.

In the light of recent reports about secret talks to reach some sort of a limited deal, whereby Iran would cap its uranium enrichment, Khamenei said, “It is possible that they [the West] would want to reach an agreement in some areas, but the nuclear infrastructure should not be affected.”

Iran has deployed thousands of advanced enrichment machines known as centrifuges in the past two years that can turn out enough 90-percent purified fissile material for a bomb in just two weeks. Even an agreement to freeze enrichment now, would leave Iran in the advantageous position of remaining at the nuclear threshold. 

Any limited agreement, which the US has denied, would most likely leave these centrifuges in place.

Despite Washington’s denials there are signs of some steps signaling attempts to somewhat reduce the extent of disagreement.

Reports on Saturday indicated that the Biden administration has allowed Iraq to make available $2.7 billion of Iranian funds blocked in Iraqi banks due to US sanctions. This is so far the largest tranche of money Washington has allowed to be released, although it has been suspicious of Iranian machinations in Iraq to launder money.

Khamenei also reiterated his long-held position that the West and UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cannot be trusted. 

Any negotiation or nuclear agreement should receive Khamenei’s approval, since he has the final say in all important political, military and economic issues, as the Supreme Leader.

The hacktivist group produced documents in May showing that it breached 120 servers of the presidential office, getting access to internal communications, meetings minutes, President Ebrahim Raisi’s online conference platforms and about 1,300 computers inside the offices.

The MEK-affiliated Telegram account Uprising till Overthrow has been releasing the documents on its social media accounts. The latest report shows that 190 hectares of government-controlled land in the southern city of Khorramshahr on the Persian Gulf was given freely to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization claimed in a letter to First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber that in order to "accelerate the process of exploration and extraction of uranium ore throughout Iran", the government laws should be changed in this regard.

In one of the documents, the security chief of Fordow nuclear plant -- an Iranian underground uranium enrichment facility located 20 miles (32 km) northeast of the Iranian city of Qom – had asked for about 150 hectares of public land to be given to the nuclear facility to increase its security buffer zone as work continued to expand Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Earlier in May, the group Uprising till Overthrow also hacked into the Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry servers, disabling 210 sites and online services and leaking another large batch of documents.

In the new cyberattack, the group is said to have gained access to “tens of thousands confidential documents” but has so far released some of them. The number of the published documents is still so large that analyzing them will take weeks.

The hacker group also published a document that contains information about the request of the Atomic Energy Organization to import 35 vehicles with an engine capacity of more than 2,500 cc.

Hassan Rouhani, President Raisi's predecessor, had banned the import of Completely Built Units (CBUs) in July 2018, allowing only Completely Knocked-Down (CKDs), which are imported in parts rather than assembled.

Any official organization needs to receive foreign currency from the government and permission to import vehicles or machinery, but cars are particularly tightly regulated, because of the cost for the government in hard currencies.

The difficulty with obtaining US dollars or euros for imports became acute after former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed tough sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, the main source of its revenues.

With French automakers withdrawing from the Iranian market after the imposition of the US sanctions, CKD imports of a variety of Chinese vehicles have flooded the market since then.

The group also claimed that their access to the internal systems of the president’s office was so vast that they sent e-mails to the office’s recipients address list with photos of the leaders of MEK and photos of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Raisi with red crosses over them as well as slogans of “Death to Khamenei” and “Hail to Rajavi”, the current leader of the opposition group.

The president’s office immediately reacted, denying that “the official website of the president” was down due to any attack.

Among the released documents, there is correspondence between the president’s office and the office of the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) under besmirched chief Ali Shamkhani, confirming rumors that the regime's top security chief was forced out after the President said he had failed to do enough to quash riots, despite killing over 500 civilians and arresting more than 20,000.