Drone Wars, Iran, And Record Israeli Arms Sales
As US officials briefed the flagship New York Times on efforts to stop Iran sending drones to Russia, the Jerusalem Post played down “a new era of drone wars.”
As US officials briefed the flagship New York Times on efforts to stop Iran sending drones to Russia, the Jerusalem Post played down “a new era of drone wars.”
A 2,000-word New York Times story published December 28 was based on un-named United States officials proclaiming Iran and Russia to be “building a new alliance of convenience.” This had prompted an “expanding US program…to choke off Iran’s ability to manufacture the drones” as US forces help “Ukraine’s military to target the sites where the drones are being prepared for launch…”
But the day before the Times outlined the “breath of the [US] effort,” the Jerusalem Post was more sanguine. “No matter how many Iranian drones Russia has access to, it can’t defeat Ukraine,” it noted. With the vast majority of the drones used by Russia easily shot down, “big army formations like tanks, infantry and artillery, still decide wars,” the Post observed.
The newspaper also conceded that while Iran had developed drones due to its lack of an effective air-force in the face of international sanction, Israel, whose advanced US-supplied aircraft include F35s, was “one of the world’s leaders in drone technology.”
‘An important tool’
Both the Ukraine war and a trumpeted ‘Iranian threat’ are boosting Israel’s weapons sales, including to disillusioned customers of Russia, as its arms exports reached a record $11.3 billion in 2022. “Iran…is suddenly sending drones to Russia, and is forming a military and security alliance with Russia…the war is helping Israel in that sense…as a by-product Israel is increasing its share of the arms market,” Yossi Melman, Haaretz Intelligence correspondence, told Voice of America December 22.
“Iranian military technology is seen as an important tool against the growing threat of Iranian military power – the concern about Iran is shared by both European and Middle Eastern countries,” VOA said.
But while Iran’s supply of drones to Russia – and Tehran claims these were sent before the current phase of conflict began February – has helped Israel’s arms sales, the US has been less successful, the New York Times reported, in hampering Iran’s drone industry given the expertise developed by Iran over many years evading American sanctions and surveillance. This was, the Times said, “proving as difficult as the decades-old drive to deprive Iran of the components needed to build the delicate centrifuges it uses to enrich near-bomb-grade uranium.”
Israeli expertise in “undermining Iran’s nuclear program” could help over Iran’s drone exports, the paper suggested: “In the effort to stop the drone attacks,” the Times said, “Mr Biden’s [President Joe Biden] aides are also engaging an ally with a long history of undermining Iran’s nuclear program: Israel.”
The Times referred to a recent video meeting between Jake Sullivan with Israel’s top national security, military and intelligence officials – which came as talk increases in Israel of a military attack on Iran and as Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power with the support of ultra-Zionists. “The fact that the administration chose to highlight the discussion…was notable,” the Times observed.
Iran is seeking to revive the expansion of its presence near Damascus, something it has always sought to do but was previously prevented by Russia, a report by Asharq Al-Awsat on Tuesday said, adding that Iran's objective is to create another “southern suburb”, commonly known as Dahieh, like the Hezbollah-dominated suburb of the Lebanese capital Beirut.
The article alleges that the Islamic Republic is scaling up its purchase of homes and establishing new camps in areas adjacent to the zones of influence of Russia, which is currently preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.
The plan is to ultimately expand the influence of Iranian forces in the towns of the southern Damascus countryside adjacent to the Sayyidah Zeinab, a town in the Rif Dimashq Governorate, less than 10 kilometers to Damascus.
The town, locally known as Sitt Zaynab, is the main stronghold of Iranian militias and their proxies in the southern countryside of the capital.
Since late in November, Syria and Iran have been deploying new air defense systems, including jamming and early warning systems, around Damascus to prevent Israeli airstrikes in the area. There are reports that the new systems were built by Korean and Chinese companies and provided by Iran as part of agreements reached between Damascus and Tehran.
On Wednesday, Israel's defense minister said it could attack Iranian nuclear sites in two or three years, in unusually explicit comments about a possible timeline.
With international efforts to renew the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) having stalled, the Iranians have ramped up uranium enrichment, a process that can eventually yield fuel for nuclear bombs -- though they deny having any such design. For more than a decade, Israel has issued veiled threats to attack its arch-enemy's nuclear facilities if it deems world powers' diplomacy with Tehran a dead end. However, some experts doubt Israel has the military clout to deliver lasting damage to Iranian targets that are distant, dispersed and well-defended.
On Tuesday, the chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi said Israel’s level of preparedness for an operation in Iran has dramatically improved.
In a speech at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, Kochavi said that the Islamic Republic is seeking to deploy hundreds of missiles in Syria along with deploying "thousands of Shia militiamen." The army chief said Israel managed to disrupt the Iranian vision in Syria "to establish a second Hezbollah in Syria."
Iran claims it is defending the Sayyidah Zeinab shrine, which is visited regularly by thousands of Shiite pilgrims from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Before the war broke out in Syria about 12 years ago, most of the population of the southeastern countryside of Damascus, including the towns of Babila, Yalda and Beit Sahem were Sunni Muslims.
However, after Damascus regained control of the area in the summer of 2018 and local families started returning to the towns, they were approached by strangers looking to buy their homes and real estate. According to reports, it became clear that those buying the houses were the families of fighters from militias affiliated with the Islamic Republic, originally from the Shiite towns of al-Foua and Kefraya in the Idlib countryside.
Like most provincial governors under the Raisi administration, now Sistan and Baluchistan province also has a military man on top of its administrative system. Karami replaced Hossein Modarres Khalili one of the very few civilian provincial governors.
According to Rouydad24 website, Khalili, a man with a background in economic affairs failed to make Ebrahim Raisi's promise of developing the province come true. Raisi, a hardliner, had made the promise in return for the votes the people in the province cast in his favor in the 2021 presidential election. Four years earlier, voters in the poverty-stricken region had cast their ballots mostly for reform-minded candidates.
As the commander of IRGC's Quds Headquarters in southeast Iran, Karami has been the most powerful man in Kerman and Sistan-Baluchistan provinces for several years. The government naturally expects him to help pacify the volatile security situation after months of unrest marked by the IRGC's bloody attack on protesters in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchistan on September 30, that killed more than 80 people.
The government also hopes that Karami's past experience will help him to succeed in development projects to alleviate poverty in the region. The former governor's inability to do so led to complaints even among government supporters.
On the other hand, Karami has paid lip service to equality between Shiite and Sunnis. This could be part of the formulaic rhetoric aimed at Sunnis, the number of times he has made such statements may indicate his interest in pacifying the Sunnis who traditionally live in the Baluchistan part of the province as opposed to the Shiite populated Sistan. Considering the consequences of the attacks that have killed over a hundred Sunnis in the past 3 months, he might need many more gestures.
Karami said in the aftermaths of IRGC attack in Zahedan and Khash as "scenes where the blood of Sunnis and Shiites mixed to support Islam against terrorism," the IRGC's Tasnim news website quoted him as saying. Meanwhile, local newspaper Asr-e Hamoon quoted Karami as saying that "Iran's enemies wish to sow discord among Iran's Shiites and Sunnis."
However, the difference between Karami and other officials who have said the same things is that he always makes a comment or two about the region's desperate need for economic progress and improvement of health and education systems.
In another development, ultraconservative daily Vatan Emrooz welcomed Karami's appointment and described his it as "a choice in favor of security." The daily wrote that one of the reasons for Karami's appointment was the escalation of “Takfiri terrorist activities” in the province and the ensuing insecurity in the region. Nonetheless, the daily observed that in his mandate for Karami, President Raisi stressed the need to improve the people's livelihood.
The daily also pointed out Karami's comment at a recent conference in the province, during which he said that "the enemies are taking advantage of the province's economic problems to sow discord between Muslim sects," a remark that highlighted both his missions, strengthening security, and improving the economy.
According to Rouydad24, the former governor's biggest weakness was his inability to control the security situation in the province. Obviously, the government can be sure that even if the new governor cannot do anything about the economy, his ability to crack down on protests is a certainty.