Iran’s Proliferation Of Weapons A Threat To Europe: EU

The motion – drafted by the France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States – focused on uranium traces found in sites used before 2003 but never declared as nuclear-related. Tehran has said the IAEA’s line of questioning came after Israeli allegations made in 2018 and should be dropped as a condition for reviving the lapsed 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

A US statement said that if Iran failed “to provide the cooperation necessary,” the IAEA governors’ board “will have to be prepared to take further action.” The statement cited an article in the agency statutes that allows for referral to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

A similar vote passed the 35-member board in June by 30 votes to two, with three abstentions from India, Libya, and Pakistan. Thursday’s motion was backed by 26 member states, with two voting against, five abstentions, and two absent. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russian ambassador to United Nations bodies in Vienna including the IAEA, tweeted that “from the Russian viewpoint” this was “better than in June.”

Russia and China have argued that raising resolutions at the IAEA board harms efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and will encourage Iranian intransigence. After June’s vote, Iran removed IAEA monitoring equipment including surveillance cameras installed under the JCPOA.

Moscow and Beijing say the primary responsibility for restoring the JCPOA lies with Washington, which unilaterally left the agreement in 2018 and began ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions that prompted Iran by 2019 to expand its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits.

While the US might succeed at a subsequent board meeting in referring Iran to the UNSC there is scant chance of a repeat of 2006, when Russia and China agreed at the council to the UN sanctions against Iran that were largely lifted in 2015 when the JCPOA was agreed.

Technical meeting in doubt

A ‘technical’ meeting earlier proposed by Iran for later this month to discuss the uranium traces remains in doubt after a statement from Tehran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami Wednesday. IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi has emphasized the importance of restoring fuller IAEA access in Iran, which Tehran has reduced right before the Vienna talks to restore the JCPOA began in April 2021. Grossi is also insisting Iran is obliged to explain the uranium traces, regardless of the JCPOA talks, under its basic commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

While the US administration of President Joe Biden took office committed to revive the JCPOA it has failed to agree terms with Iran. Multilateral and bilateral talks lasting 18 months have stalled over which US sanctions contravene the 2015 agreement and whether Iran should have ‘guarantees’ to cushion against a second US withdrawal.

Rob Malley, the US Iran envoy said this week the US had lost focus over the JCPOA because of Iran supplying military drones to Russia and its treatment of domestic protestors. French President Emmanuel Macron Monday, just days after suggesting a ‘revolution’ was underway in Iran, suggested that a wider agreement with Tehran was more feasible than JCPOA restoration, so rejecting the view of the JCPOA as a first step to wider progress but itself a valuable non-proliferation measure.

IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said last week Iran had proposed a visit by senior agency officials before the end of November. It was unclear whether Eslami, in remarks reported by state media, was suggesting that no agreement had been reached on a precise remit for discussions, or whether Iran had withdrawn the proposal given the resolution critical of Iran moved Wednesday by the United States and three European states at the IAEA quarterly board meeting.

The IAEA has called on Iran to offer ‘credible’ explanations for traces of uranium found at sites linked to nuclear work before 2003. Iran has argued the agency enquiries responded to Israeli allegations made in 2018 and should be shelved to facilitate reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Eslami said Iran rejected the resolution – raised by the US, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – that calls it “essential and urgent” for Tehran to satisfy the agency. When a similar motion overwhelmingly passed the IAEA board in June it was criticized by both Russia and China as unhelpful in 18-month talks to revive the JCPOA, which the US left in 2018.

US special envoy Rob Malley suggested Mondaythat Iran’s supply of military drones to Russia and mistreatment of domestic protestors were both contributing to a US lack on focus on JCPOA talks, but Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Wednesday that Washington was acting hypocritically.

Amir-Abdollahian charged that the US sought to “put pressure” on Iran to “deviate from our red lines” in the talks, and that the latest exchange of messages had been within the previous 72 hours. Iran has insisted that, given the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, it needs ‘guarantees’ against the economic damage a second withdrawal would inflict.

With Malley Monday linking the JCPOA talks to other issues – rejecting the separation on which the 2015 agreement was largely built – the special envoy met Tuesday with his French, German, and UK counterparts in Paris.

While the administration of President Joe Biden came into office pledged to revive the JCPOA it continued the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced by President Donald Trump on leaving the agreement in 2018. Failure of Washington and Tehran to reach conclusions either in multilateral talks in Vienna – involving China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US – or in bilateral meetings have seen Iran continue a nuclear expansion that began in 2019 and reduce its cooperation with the IAEA.

Iran now has 3,674kg of enriched uranium, far above the 267kg JCPOA limit, and including 62kg enriched to 60 percent, a relatively short step from the 90 percent considered ‘weapons grade.’ Under the JCPOA it enriched to only 3.67 percent.

Malley said Monday the US would discuss with the Europeans what steps to take should Iran continue this path. He warned there was “no magic in which we will find a new formula.”

Speaking to reporters in Paris, Malley appeared to jettison the logic of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which restricted Tehran’s atomic program in return for the easing of international sanctions. Eighteen-month talks to revive the agreement, from which former president Trump withdrew the US in 2018, have come to naught.

“Our focus is not an accord that isn’t moving forward, but what is happening in Iran ... this popular movement and the brutal crackdown of the regime against protesters,” Malley said. “It’s the sale of armed drones by Iran to Russia ... and the liberation of our hostages…” At least three American nationals are detained in Iran, with talks for a prisoner swap inconclusive.

Malley reiterated Washington’s view that the talks to revive the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), had floundered because of both “Iran’s position,” in making demands the US considers beyond the JCPOA, and “everything that has happened since [September].” Recent protests in Iran followed the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini after detention by Tehran ‘morality police.’

President Joe Biden came to office in 2021 committed to reviving the JCPOA as a non-proliferation agreement and thereby lifting the ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced by Trump. But Biden’s administration has extended sanctions, citing both Tehran’s military links with Russia and its treatment of protestors.

Since 2019, the year after the US left the JCPOA, Iran has in response gradually extended its nuclear program and according to the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has now 3,674kg of enriched uranium. This is far above the 267kg JCPOA limit, and includes 62kg enriched to 60 percent, a short step from the 90 percent considered ‘weapons grade.’

Under the JCPOA Iran enriched only to 3.67 percent. Under the JCPOA it employed only 6,104 first-generation centrifuges whereas it now additionally uses at least 4,000 more advanced centrifuges that were banned under the 2015 agreement.

‘No magic…new formula’

Malley said Monday the US would discuss with its “European allies” what steps to take should Iran continue to expand nuclear activities. “If Iran takes the initiative to cross new thresholds in its nuclear program, then obviously the response will be different and coordinated with our European allies…There is no magic in which we will find a new formula.”

With Benjamin Netanyahu set to return to office and the outgoing Israeli administration suggesting it had thoroughly prepared for a military attack on Iran, both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia show concern over rising tensions. While Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns Monday met the head of Russian foreign intelligence Sergey Naryshkin in Ankara to discuss ‘risk management,’ there has been speculation that Moscow has decided to supply Iran with Su-35 fighter jets.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said Monday the Emirates had no interest in “choosing sides” between competing powers. Gargash said that while the UAE wanted “codified and unambivalent commitments” from the US, it hoped to see effort put into easing strains and encouraging economic growth without relying on “just one or two countries.”

Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expanding trade with China, while Riyadh has led coordination through Opec+ with Russia over oil production levels. The UAE has stepped back from involvement in violent conflict in Yemen and Libya, and earlier this year restored full diplomatic relations with Iran after a six-year gap. While the UAE in 2020 ‘normalized’ relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia so far has maintained the Arab League position that this requires Israeli recognition of Palestinian statehood.

France has long supported the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) as a step towards regional agreements over other issues, including defense, security, and trade. But speaking to France Inter radio Monday, Macron said he hoped to establish a “new framework” involving regional powers, including Iran, that was probably now needed, and that he was “very cautious” over prospects for restoring the JCPOA.

Macron suggested current unrest in Iran, which he characterized Saturday as a “revolution,” had “fragilized” the 2015 agreement, which the United States left in 2018, leading Iran after 2019 to expand its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits.

The French president was criticized Sunday by Iran’s foreign affairs spokesman for meeting with overseas Iranian opposition activists, including US-based Masih Alinejad, who is prominent in social media and more recently on US and other media networks.

Nasser Kanaani called Macron’s comments after the meeting – which encouraged Alinejad to praise France as “the first country to officially recognize this revolution” – “a flagrant violation of France’s international responsibilities in the fight against terrorism and violence.”

Iran has been presenting the protests as "riots" and some protesters as "terrorists". It has already sentenced one protester to death for allegedly attacking a government building.

Although around 40 security forces have been killed during protests since September, more than 330 demonstrators have died mostly by bullets of regime’s official and unofficial gunmen.

While the logic of the JCPOA separated Iran’s nuclear program from other issues, the distinction has become harder to maintain given international publicity of protests following the September 16 death of a 22-year-old woman in the custody of Tehran ‘morality police.’

So far, the US and three European JCPOA signatories – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – have said they are committed to reviving the agreement, and that the failure of 18-month talks is due solely to Iran making demands beyond the original agreement. Meetings are due in Tehran later this month as International Atomic Energy Agency seeks what it deems satisfactory answers over uranium traces found in sites linked to Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear work. Iranian officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi, have said the IAEA probe into the matter should be dropped in order to revive the JCPOA.

Dim prospects?

Prospects for a regional conference – Macron’s proposed ‘new framework’ – appear dim, and the French president did not specify who should be involved. Multilateral efforts to end the war in Yemen, or the violent fragmentation of Syria, have floundered.

Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite Iraq-brokered talks, have not restored diplomatic relations broken off 2016 after Riyadh executed leading Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, and most Arab states hold the Arab League position that Israel should not be recognized until it accepts a viable Palestinian state. Russia, ostracized by the US and European Union over Ukraine, coordinates oil policy with Saudi Arabia and has military cooperation with Iran.

Macron clearly did not accept Alinejad’s view that diplomatic relations with Iran be broken off and established instead withwhat she called “the Iranian opposition.” Alinejad has also organized a petition calling for the removalof Rob Malley, the US official who has led talks aimed at JCPOA restoration.

European Union foreign ministers meeting today in Brussels are expected to impose new sanctions on Iran– with Macron telling France Inter radio he was among those pushing for measures against leading officials and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US spokesman Ned Price said last week that while Washington was “looking at all appropriate tools” for dealing with Iran’s “foot-dragging,” it was already “very heavily sanctioned, to say the least…”

The November 24-26 board meeting of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will likely see a fresh resolution censoring Tehran over restricted access to agency inspectors. Reports emerged Friday that the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, were circulating to the board’s 35 member-states a draft resolution calling it “essential and urgent” for Iran to address agency unease.

IAEA concerns are twofold. Firstly, as highlighted by the resolution, Tehran has not satisfied the IAEA over uranium traces found in sites used for pre-2003 nuclear work. There is little expectation of a breakthrough in meetings with Iranian officials planned for later this month.

Ned Price, the US State Department Spokesman, Thursday accused Iran of “foot-dragging.” Tehran has demanded the IAEA drop questions over the uranium traces to help talks, currently frozen, to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which the US left in 2018.

The agency’s second main area of concern is Iran’s reducing since February 2021 IAEA general access to the nuclear program, which is now broadly as required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty rather than as enhanced by the JCPOA.

This downgraded access, coupled with the issue of uranium traces, has led agency director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi to warn he may no longer be able to verify the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program. A report circulated Thursday to IAEA member states noted that “the longer the current situation persists the greater such uncertainty becomes.”

The agency monitors Iran’s uranium stockpiles, which it currently reports at 3,674kg, way above the 267kg JCPOA cap, including 62kg enriched to 60 percent, close to 90 percent ‘weapons grade.’ But Iran’s removal of monitoring equipment in factories where it makes centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, has stymied the agency’s ability to judge the overall program. While access to such factories is not required under Iran’s NPT commitments, knowing the number and type of centrifuges Iran has ready and waiting is crucial to assessing how quickly the program can expand.

While Price said Thursday the US was consulting its “European partners,” options for effective action appear limited. The IAEA board passed a resolution June censoring Iran over the uranium traces, and it far from clear what a new resolution might achieve. The draft text, as reported by Reuters Friday, says Iran should “act to fulfil its legal obligations and... without delay…provide all information, documentation, and answers” required by the IAEA, as well as “access to locations and material…[and the] taking of samples…”

Unlike 2006, when the IAEA referred Iran to the United Nations Security Council over its atomic program, Russia and China would no longer back the move. Both hold UNSC vetoes and see the US as primarily responsible for the JCPOA’s demise.

Even though decisions over JCPOA restoration rest with President Joe Biden, JCPOA critics in the US may feel emboldened by the swing away from the Democrats in the November 8 Congressional elections, even if control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate remains unclear.

‘Acting with judgement’

The looming return to office in Israel of Benjamin Netanyahu after November 1 Knesset elections is another complication. Outgoing prime minister Yair Lapid developed a good relationship with the Biden administration although critical of efforts to revive the JCPOA, whereas Netanyahu previously identified with President Donald Trump. Outgoing Defense Minister Benny Gantz Wednesday talked up work done by the outgoing administration in preparing for military strikes on Iran, suggesting Netanyahu would now “act with judgement.”

While the Ukraine crisis, Iran’s wave of internal protests, and Tehran’s growing links with Moscow have all brought the US closer to the three European JCPOA signatories – France, Germany, and the UK – Biden’s alternatives appear limited.

Given “Iran’s dangerous proliferation of weapon systems to Russia,” Price said Thursday the US would “continue to vigorously enforce all US sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian arms trade.” He conceded that while Washington was “looking at all appropriate tools” for dealing with Iran, it was already “very heavily sanctioned, to say the least…for the full range of their nefarious activities.”