Iran Wants To Stop Billions Of Dollars In Capital Flight
Iran’s government will announce new regulations and act to stem the tide of large and sustained capital flight, the economy minister announced Thursday.
Iran’s government will announce new regulations and act to stem the tide of large and sustained capital flight, the economy minister announced Thursday.
Iran continues to face oil export and international banking sanctions imposed by the United States and a considerable chunk of its foreign currency revenues are invested abroad by those who make money in the beleaguered economy.
Estimates range from 10-15 billion dollars of capital leaving Iran every year, while the country has been under various sanctions for more than 10 years since 2010. Its oil income dwindled from a $100 billion in 2009-2010 to less than $20 billion in 2019, derailing all development plans and creating huge budget deficits.
When the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions, some reports spoke of around $30 billion leaving the country during that year by people who lost confidence in the economy.
The Minister of Economy and Treasury Ehsan Khandouzi says the government and the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) will come up with solutions to reduce capital flight, although he has not explained how.
Iranian businesses and individuals use at least two methods to either take capital out or keep their earnings abroad.
The first pertains to those who have legitimate export or import businesses and receive government dollars at preferential rates, to buy raw materials abroad. There have been accusations that some of that money sent abroad to finance imports, is diverted to foreign bank accounts or invested in other countries. Another loophole is that exporters who are supposed to bring their earnings back do so only partially and keep the rest abroad.
Another way is simply buying dollars and other foreign currencies on the black market and sending it abroad through a very fast, flexible, reliable and cheap informal network of money changers – much like the famous ‘hawala’ system well known in West Asia. One could give a million dollars to a money changer in Tehran and for a fee the funds will be delivered to any foreign country.
Khandouzi told the local media that during the past Iranian calendar year, (March 2021-March 2022) the country’s capital account deficit reached $7.5 billion, a red flag indicating capital flight.
To put in perspective, if Iran would earn $40 billion from oil exports amid US sanctions and $10 billion left the country as fleeing capital, one could argue that foreign earnings were in fact 25 percent less.
It should also be noted that Iran attracts virtually no foreign capital or investments, due to uncertainties and instability generated by its tense foreign relations and the nuclear dispute with the West.
Some of the foreign currency leaving Iran is invested by individuals to buy homes, primarily in Turkey. According to official Turkish government figures, Iranians bought more than 10,000 residential units in 2021. If the average price of each unit was $150,000, Iranians spent $1.5 billion on housing investments in Turkey alone. They also buy homes in the United Arab Emirates, Europe, Canada and the United States.
Among these people many must be government officials or work closely with the government, given the fact that 80 percent of Iran’s economy is owned by the state, quasi-governmental entities and foundations controlled by the ruling elite.
According to Shargh daily in Tehran, a data analysis by Mohamad Rahbari indicates that numerous reports about the success or failure of negotiations have pushed social media users back and forth between hope and despair in the past 18 months. The report suggests that in recent weeks, despite more optimism surrounding the revival of the JCPOA, Iranian social media users have become less sensitive to news about the talks.
But the report does not cite figures from the past about the degree of interest in JCPOA to substantiate its claim of declining interest.
Iranian Twitter users posted some 22,000 tweets about the JCPOA from August 6-13. The data collected by Rahbari suggests that there was a rise in attention to the issue until Tuesday, August 9, followed by a decline. But as more optimistic reports started to come in, the number of tweets reached a peak of nearly 4,000 on August 13.
The report added that nonetheless, the JCPOA was not the top issue for Twitter users. A review of other political and economic reports during the week showed that a statement issued by former presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, which challenged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's authority, caught the most attention and the JCPOA was the second most important news.
While there were 22,000 tweets about the JCPOA, the Mousavi story generated 31,000 posts, and the Rushdie attack 15,000.
Meanwhile, although there were more tweets about the JCPOA than those about the assassination attempt on British author Salman Rushdie, the posts about Rushdie received more "likes" than those about the JCPOA.
Things, however, were different on Telegram channels where the news about the JCPOA attracted far more attention than the stories about Mousavi or Rushdie. Nonetheless, there were many more posts about the exchange rate of Iran’s currency, as the rial began to rise against the US dollar.
Here, the JCPOA was the subject of 53,000 posts, forex 95,000, with the rest below 20,000 each.
On the other hand, trends in Google searches which reflect people's preoccupations and questions more accurately, indicate that users showed the least degree of interest to the JCPOA and its revival. In other words, there were more searches about Salman Rushdie (yellow graph), subsidies (purple), Mousavi (red), and Forex and gold (green) than about the JCPOA and its revival (blue) [Figure 4]. This shows that a large number of Iranians who use Google search, were far less sensitive about the JCPOA than about other matters.
The research observed that most of the tweets about the JCPOA were not indicative of users' sensitivity to the matter. Instead, they mainly contained jokes about the negotiations. This was more evident in tweets that had received the largest number of "likes."
In the most popular tweet of this kind which received 3,476 "likes," user Massoud Saeedi, who pretended to be an Iranian government official wrote: "The text of the JCPOA had some problems we will not tell you about. We prepared a better text that you should not know about. However, we insisted on some conditions that we are not going to tell you about. Now an unidentified group of experts are reviewing the text, but we are not going to share with you the results of this review. You just need to know that we are better than the previous government."
The second most popular tweet observed that "The winner of the negotiations was the hotel that was the venue of the talks."
The report concluded that the reasons for the decline in sensitivity about the JCPOA include the extraordinarily prolonged duration of the talks and the attacks made on the deal during recent years by its Iranian and foreign opponents. Some Iranians may have concluded that the JCPOA may not be able to solve their problems.